相对局部区域震源参数随机不确定性经验关系研究

李宗超 高孟潭 孙吉泽 陈学良 张波

李宗超,高孟潭,孙吉泽,陈学良,张波. 2021. 相对局部区域震源参数随机不确定性经验关系研究. 地震学报,43(4):1−15 doi: 10.11939/jass20200153
引用本文: 李宗超,高孟潭,孙吉泽,陈学良,张波. 2021. 相对局部区域震源参数随机不确定性经验关系研究. 地震学报,43(4):1−15 doi: 10.11939/jass20200153
Li Z C,Gao M T,Sun J Z,Chen X L,Zhang B. 2021. Empirical relationship of stochastic uncertainty of source parameters in relative local area. Acta Seismologica Sinica,43(4):1−15 doi: 10.11939/jass20200153
Citation: Li Z C,Gao M T,Sun J Z,Chen X L,Zhang B. 2021. Empirical relationship of stochastic uncertainty of source parameters in relative local area. Acta Seismologica Sinica43(4):1−15 doi: 10.11939/jass20200153

相对局部区域震源参数随机不确定性经验关系研究

doi: 10.11939/jass20200153
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划(2019YFC1509403)和中国地震局地球物理研究所基本科研业务重大研究计划专题(DQJB19A0131,DQJB19A0133)联合资助
详细信息
    通讯作者:

    李宗超,e-mail:lizongchaoigo@163.com

  • 中图分类号: 315.08

Empirical relationship of stochastic uncertainty of source parameters in relative local area

  • 摘要: 在进行未来破坏性地震的强地面运动数值模拟时,震源参数选取的准确性对地震动预测的结果影响很大。震源参数的确定存在很多不确定性因素,既包含随机的不确定性因素,又包含认知的不确定性因素。本文在大量地震事件及文献调研的基础上,运用统计学方法对具备随机不确定性特征的震源参数进行统计研究,以震源参数经验公式的形态建立解释其随机性和不确定性的数学模型。为了研究局部地区震源参数的定标关系特征,获得更加适用于局部地震密集区域,尤其是包含中国大陆地区在内的局部区域的震源参数的经验关系,本文从Global CMT地震目录中选取了1 700多个MW≥5.5的地震事件,运用统计学方法研究地震密集地区的震源参数经验关系,包括震级、地震矩、破裂面积等,增加了相对较大的局部范围内凹凸体的地震样本数量,从统计学角度计算更加适合局部区域的震源参数的经验关系。统计结果表明:局部区域震例获得的震源参数的经验关系与不限区域震例获得的经验关系存在差异,尤其是涉及到断层破裂面积、凹凸体相关参数时差异较大,局部区域内震例获得的震源参数的经验关系将更具有代表性。应用本文获得的相对局部区域的经验公式计算未来破坏性地震的强地面运动所需的震源参数时,获得的地震动预测结果将更能体现目标区域真实的地震动特征,进而提高地震动预测结果的可靠性。

     

  • 图  1  Global CMT地震分布(区域1主要是中国大陆西部地区、南亚、中亚等;区域2主要是中国台湾地区、菲律宾、东海及黄海大陆架等;区域3主要是日本及延伸的大陆架地区等)

    Figure  1.  Distribution of Global CMT earthquakes. Region 1 contains most of China,South Asia and Middle Asia. Region 2 contains China Taiwan region,Philippines,East China and Yellow Sea continental shelf. Region 3 mainly contains Japan and its extended continental shelf

    图  2  各地震密集区域内面波震级MS与地震矩M0的经验关系

    Figure  2.  The empirical relationship between MS and M0 of different concentrated local regions

    图  3  地震矩M0与平均滑动位移$\bar D $、断层破裂面积A的经验关系

    Figure  3.  the empirical relationship between M0 and average sliding displacement $\bar D $ or rupture area A

    图  4  凹凸体相关震源参数经验关系统计

    (a) 凹凸体面积Aa与地震矩Ma的经验关系;(b) 凹凸体面积Aa与断层破裂面积A的经验关系;(c) 凹凸体面积Aa与面波震级MS的经验关系;(d) 凹凸体长度La与断层长度L的经验关系

    Figure  4.  The empirical relationship statistical of asperity

    (a) The relationship between asperity area Aa and seismic moment Ma;(b) The relationship between asperity area Aa and fault area A;(c) The relationship between asperity area Aa and magnitude MS;(d) The relationship between asperity length La and fault length L

    图  5  本文部分震源参数经验关系与前人统计震源参数经验关系对比

    (a) 地震矩与面波震级经验关系;(b) 地震矩与断层破裂面积经验关系;(c) 地震矩与矩阵震级经验关系;(d) 凹凸体面积与地震矩之间的关系;(e) 地震矩与平均滑动位移之间的经验关系

    Figure  5.  The source parameters relationship comparing between predecessors and this paper

    (a) The relationship between seismic moment and MS magnitude;(b) The relationship between seismic moment and fault rupture area;(c) The relationship between magnitude MW and seismic moment;(d) The relationship between seismic moment and asperity area;(e) The empirical relationship between seismic moment and average sliding displacement

    表  1  各局部区域相关信息

    Table  1.   Information of different local regions

    区域经纬度范围事件个数MW
    1(63°E—110°E),(2.51°N—57.53°N)4385.5—7.9
    2(115°E—135°E),(2.51°N—45°N)5265.5—7.7
    3(135°E—149.94°E),(2.51°N—57.53°N)7855.5—9.1
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  各区域内平均震源深度及出现频率较高的震源深度

    Table  2.   The average source depth of different local regions and more occurrences source depths

    区域平均震源深度/km众数深度1众数深度2众数深度3众数深度4
    118.74915 km/15712 km/5410 km/3233 km/21
    223.57815 km/13212 km/2824 km/1110 km/8
    323.80615 km/18612 km/8220 km/1516 km/12
      注:众数深度表示出现该震源深度的频率。例如15 km/157,表明震源深度为15 km的震例有157个。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  各区域面波震级与地震矩经验关系参数

    Table  3.   Parameters of empirical relationship between MS and M0 in different regions

    区域斜率a标准差截距b标准差皮尔逊相关系数r校正决定系数
    11.0570.01818.7870.1050.940.89
    21.0660.01918.8430.1130.920.85
    31.1560.01918.3050.1120.910.82
    全区域1.0760.01018.7530.0580.910.84
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  相对局部区域地震记录震源参数信息

    Table  4.   The information of source parameters in relative local region

    位置地震MW地震矩M0/(N·m)破裂面积/km2平均滑动量/cm
    日本新泻7.592.72×10201 800503.7
    中国松潘6.374.03×101821662.19
    伊朗塔巴斯戈尔山7.391.37×10201 628280.51
    中国台湾花莲6.374.03×101848027.99
    中国台湾花莲7.331.11×10201 248296.47
    日本秋田6.131.76×101815438.1
    日本瓦卡萨湾6.282.95×101816061.46
    日本岐阜6.343.63×101818067.22
    中国唐山7.461.74×10201 680345.24
    伊朗鲍勃探戈5.897.67×101716815.22
    日本伊豆大岛6.711.30×101950086.67
    日本长崎西武6.242.57×10189689.24
    中国澜沧—耿马7.135.56×10191 600115.83
    日本伊豆奥基6.547.24×1018198121.89
    伊朗达什—巴亚兹7.237.85×10192 200118.94
    中国炉霍7.471.80×10201 430419.58
    中国海城gnehciah6.993.43×1019900127.04
    日本伊豆河东6.394.32×1018140102.86
    中国道孚6.641.02×101969049.28
    日本伊豆大岛6.374.03×101822858.92
    菲律宾吕宋岛7.744.57×10202 400634.72
    日本大分县6.323.39×1018100113
    中国松潘6.711.30×1019360120.37
    中国松潘6.588.32×1018242114.6
    日本大町5.512.07×10172824.64
    日本瓦茨5.906.00×101714413.89
    中国台湾集集7.602.70×10203 432262.24
    日本格约6.803.30×1019630174.6
    日本神户6.902.40×10191 20066.67
    日本鹿儿岛6.101.20×102521618.52
    日本山口5.806.00×10242248.93
    土耳其Kocach7.401.52×10273 282154.36
    日本鸟取6.801.90×102669391.39
      注:本表中各地震样本的震源参数信息参考来源为:① 王海云(2004)博士论文第二章P23—26的表2.1-地震震源参数表;② Wells和Coppersmith (1994)data base节中的Table1 Earthquake source parameters.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  地震矩M0与平均滑动位移$\bar D $、破裂面积A的经验关系拟合指标

    Table  5.   The empirical relationship parameters between M0 and average sliding displacement $\bar D $ or rupture area A

    经验关系斜率a标准差截距b标准差皮尔逊相关系数r校正决定系数
    M0 & A0.040.960.930.85
    M0 & $\bar D $0.041.040.900.80
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  凹凸体相关震源参数信息汇总

    Table  6.   The information summary of asperity parameters

    序号位置地震东经
    北纬
    MS地震矩
    /(N·m)
    破裂长度
    /km
    破裂面积
    /km2
    凹凸体长度
    /km
    凹凸体面积
    /km2
    1日本浓尾136.6035.608.01.50×1020801 20016.23243.45
    2中国海原105.7036.708.53.00×10212204 400150.433 008.62
    3日本北伊豆地震138.9835.047.33.78×1019354201.1513.79
    4中国可可托海89.9046.747.98.24×10201803 60086.261 725.17
    5中国昌马97.0039.707.76.30×10201482 22072.771 091.52
    6日本鸟取县134.1835.477.46.65×10183342922.80296.37
    7中国当雄91.4031.108.04.96×10202002 00028.10280.99
    8中国当雄91.5031.007.56.89×1019581 04431.85573.28
    9蒙古国戈壁阿尔泰省99.2045.208.01.22×10213006 00029.90597.96
    10中国通海102.6024.107.78.50×1019751 1251.7225.81
    11中国炉霍100.4031.507.61.80×1020901 17060.71789.28
    12中国道孚101.3530.866.87.28×10185571538.13495.74
    13伊朗科里59.5834.457.14.61×1019751 65051.971143.24
    14中国澜沧-耿马99.6823.007.33.66×1019801 60044.99899.83
    15中国云南耿马99.7022.807.25.50×10194692017.73354.63
    16中国昆仑山92.9135.808.05.90×102042612 780273.998 219.59
    17中国汶川104.1031.448.08.97×10202277 02979.111 186.62
    18日本神户134.9934.786.62.43×10195892867.851 119.61
    19伊朗塔巴斯戈尔山57.0233.377.45.80×1019924 04820.00300.00
    20中国玉树96.8233.107.12.53×1019731 73343.34156.71
    21中国芦山103.0030.307.01.02×1019652 015*80.00
    22中国唐山118.1839.637.92.77×10201153 300*237.00
    23中国伽师76.9339.616.12.06×101813130*26.94
      注:“*”表示该参数暂时缺乏.震源参数参考文献来源为王椿镛等(1978)唐荣昌等(1980)王凯等(1991)胡方秋和刘景元(1994)马淑田等(1997)Somerville等(1999)王海云(20042010);王海云和陶夏新(2005)吴迪(2008)李启成(2010)张军龙等(2010)李正芳(20132014);温瑞智等(2013)药晓东和章文波(2015)药晓东等(2015)
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  7  凹凸体相关震源参数的经验关系拟合指标

    Table  7.   The empirical relationship fitting parameters about asperity

    经验关系斜率a截距b皮尔逊相关系数r校正决定系数
    凹凸体地震矩Ma与凹凸体面积Aa0.4151.5150.6550.399
    断层面积A与凹凸体面积Aa0.979−0.5560.6550.402
    断层长度L与凹凸体长度La0.930−0.1450.8170.644
    面波震级MS与凹凸体面积Aa0.572−1.6500.6560.397
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  8  主要震源参数经验关系汇总

    Table  8.   The summary of empirical relationship for main source parameters

    经验关系统计公式皮尔逊相关系数r
    区域1地震矩M0与面波震级MS lgM0=1.057MS+18.787 0.94
    区域2地震矩M0与面波震级MS lgM0=1.066MS+18.843 0.92
    区域3地震矩M0与面波震级MS lgM0=1.156MS+18.305 0.91
    全区域地震矩M0与面波震级MS lgM0= 1.076MS+18.754 0.91
    地震矩M0与断层破裂面积A lgA= 0.542lgM0-4.388 0.93
    地震矩M0与平均滑动位移$\bar D $ lg$\bar D $= 0.46lgM0-10 0.90
    凹凸体地震矩Ma与凹凸体面积Aa lgMa= 0.415lgAa+1.515 0.66
    断层破裂面积A与凹凸体面积Aa lgAa= 0.979lgA-0.556 0.66
    断层长度L与凹凸体长度La lgLa= 0.930lgL-0.145 0.66
    面波震级MS与凹凸体面积Aa lgAa= 0.572lgMS-1.65 0.82
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2020-09-02
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