高悦, 安张辉, 范莹莹, 刘君, 王建军. 2017: 自然时间域中的地震序列参数分析. 地震学报, 39(4): 593-603. DOI: 10.11939/jass.2017.04.013
引用本文: 高悦, 安张辉, 范莹莹, 刘君, 王建军. 2017: 自然时间域中的地震序列参数分析. 地震学报, 39(4): 593-603. DOI: 10.11939/jass.2017.04.013
Gao Yue, An Zhanghui, Fan Yingying, Liu Jun, Wang Jianjun. 2017: Order parameter analysis of seismicity in natural time domain. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 39(4): 593-603. DOI: 10.11939/jass.2017.04.013
Citation: Gao Yue, An Zhanghui, Fan Yingying, Liu Jun, Wang Jianjun. 2017: Order parameter analysis of seismicity in natural time domain. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 39(4): 593-603. DOI: 10.11939/jass.2017.04.013

自然时间域中的地震序列参数分析

Order parameter analysis of seismicity in natural time domain

  • 摘要: 自然时间χ是Varotsos等于2001年提出的一种新的时间域, 其将复杂系统的时间序列在自然时间域中进行分析,能够有效地提取有用信号并提高相关结果的准确性,从而更容易获得复杂系统的动态特征.文中对自然时间法进行了简单介绍,选取中国地震台网中心1978—2014年地震目录中震级排序前30的震例,计算每次地震的归一化能量在自然时间域中的方差κ1及其变异系数β,并将方差κ1作为序列参数,利用变异系数β对序列参数κ1进行定性分析,并在此基础上,对序列参数κ1进行定量分析.研究结果表明:30次震例中有21次震例的地震序列参数κ1自震前半小时至几个月开始持续在0.07上下波动,并在主震发生前迅速下降至0值附近.此外,还简单讨论了定量分析中时间窗口的选择以及分析结果中可能出现的特殊情况.本文的研究结果对我国地震事件的回溯性研究及地震预测研究具有一定的指导意义.

     

    Abstract: The natural time χ is a new time domain introduced by Varotsos et al in 2001. Novel dynamical features of time series in complex systems can emerge upon self analysis in natural time, which conforms to the desire to extract useful signal information and reduce uncertainty effectively. In this study, we first introduce the natural time method and then select top 30 earthquakes from the catalogue of China Earthquake Networks Center from 1978 to 2014, after that calculate the variance κ1 and the coefficient of variation β of the normalized energy released from each earthquake in natural time domain. Taking κ1 as the order parameter, we qualitatively analyse κ1 by making use of β, and further quantitatively analyse κ1 on that basis afterwards. The results show that the order parameter κ1 nearly equals to 0.07 from half an hour to months before the main shock and abruptly decreases toward zero when the main shock happenes. Furthermore, we simply discuss the way to select time window in quantitative analysis and some special cases in analysis results. Hence, it seems that the results have a guiding significance for earthquake events retrospective study and earthquake prediction study.

     

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