Coulomb stress evolution and seismic hazards along the Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone
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摘要: 祁连—海原断裂带是青藏高原东北缘重要的活动断裂带，调节着青藏高原北东向推挤作用和阿拉善地块的东西向运动。已有地震地质和数值模型结果显示，祁连—海原断裂带目前存在几个强震破裂空段且其上应力积累显著、断层闭锁程度高，2022年1月8日门源MS6.9地震即发生在祁连—海原断裂带西段的断层高闭锁、应力积累显著的破裂空段。为进一步认识祁连—海原断裂带未来的强震危险性，本文收集整理了青藏高原北部的强震破裂模型，并基于分层黏弹性流变模型计算了青藏高原北部1900年以来的强震对祁连—海原断裂带的库仑应力加载。结果显示，祁连—海原断裂带西段的木里—江仓断裂和托莱山断裂以及中段的金强河—老虎山断裂应力增强显著，最大库仑应力加载可达1 MPa以上。显著的强震库仑应力加载、强震破裂空段与已有数值模型给出的高应力积累区域和断层高闭锁区域吻合，这表明祁连—海原断裂带西段的木里—江仓断裂和托莱山断裂以及中段的金强河—老虎山断裂未来地震危险性高，亟需进一步关注。Abstract: The Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone （QHF） is one of the most active faults in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, which regulates the northeastward spreading of the Tibetan Plateau and the eastward movement of Alxa block. Previous studies indicate that there are several seismic gaps with high fault locking and high stress accumulation rate along the QHF. The Menyuan MS6.9 earthquake on January 8, 2022 ruptured the western segment of the QHF with high fault locking and high stress accumulation. To further understanding the seismic hazards of the QHF, we investigated the Coulomb stress evolution along the QHF based on a layered viscoelastic lithosphere model and the updated coseismic rupture models of the strong earthquakes in the northern Tibetan Plateau since 1900 based on the geological investigation. Our results show there are two Coulomb stress loading segments along the QHF, they are the Muli-Jiangcang fault and Tuolaishan fault in the west, and the Jinqianghe-Laohushan fault in central of the QHF, with the maximum Coulomb stress loading as large as more than 1 MPa. Moreover, the two segments with high Coulomb stress loading are also consistent with the seismic gap with high fault locking and high interseismic stress accumulation rate, manifesting that the two segments are at high seismic risk that deserves more attention in the further researches.
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图 7 古浪地震位错模型对周边主要断裂的库仑应力影响
F1：祁连山北缘断裂；F2：香山—天景山断裂；F3：鄂拉山断裂；F4：日月山断裂；F5：海原断裂；F6：云雾山断裂；F7：龙首山断裂；F8：皇城—双塔断裂；F9：金强河断裂；F10：毛毛山断裂；F11：黄河—灵武断裂；F12：木里—江仓断裂；F13：拖莱山断裂；F14：冷龙岭断裂；F15：老虎山断裂；F16：六盘山断裂（a） 基于Xiao和He （2015）的位错模型；（b） 基于傅征祥等（2001）的位错模型；（c） 基于万永革等（2007）的位错模型；（d） 基于Guo等（2020）的位错模型
Figure 7. The cumulated Coulomb stress changes on the main active faults associated with different coseismic models of the 1927 Gulang earthquake
F1：Qilianshan northern marginal fault；F2：Xiangshan-Tianjingshan fault；F3：Elashan fault；F4：Riyueshan fault；F5：Haiyuan fault；F6：Yunwushan fault；F7：Longshoushan fault ；F8：Huangcheng-Shuangta fault；F9：Jinqianghe fault；F10：Maomaoshan fault；F11：Huanghe-Lingwu fault；F12：Muli-Jiangcang fault；F13：Tuolaishan fault；F14：Lenglongling fault；F15：Laohushan fault；F16：Liupanshan fault（a） The coseismic rupture model from Xiao and He （2015）；（b） The coseismic rupture model from Fu et al （2001）； （c） The coseismic rupture model from Wan et al （2007）；（d） The coseismic rupture model from Guo et al （2020）
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图 1 青藏高原北部构造环境和强震活动
沿祁连—海原断裂带（F3）的彩色散点为数值模拟给出的断层剪应力积累速率（石富强等，2018）。F1：阿尔金断裂带；F2：祁连山断裂带；F3：祁连—海原断裂带；F4：东昆仑断裂带；F5：柴达木盆地北缘断裂；F6：鄂拉山断裂；F7：日月山断裂；F8：狼山山前断裂；F9：六盘山断裂；F10：西秦岭北缘断裂；F11：甘孜—玉树断裂；F12：青川—平武断裂
Figure 1. The tectonic setting and the strong earthquake ruptures of the north Tibetan Plateau
The colored dots are the maximum shear stress rates of the Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone based on the finite element simulations （Shi et al，2018）。F1：Altyn fault zone；F2：Qilianshan fault zone；F3：Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone；F4：East Kunlun fault zone；F5：Northern marginal fault of Qaidam basin；F6：Elashan fault；F7：Riyueshan fault；F8：Langshan piedmont fault；F9：Liupanshan fault；F10：Northern marginal fault of west Qinling；F11：Garze-Yushu fault；F12：Qingchuan-Pingwu fault
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图 2 祁连—海原断裂带三次显著强震之间的应力触发
（a） 1920年海原地震对1927年古浪地震的库仑应力加载；（b） 1920年海原地震对2022年门源地震的库仑应力加载；（c） 1927年古浪地震对2022年门源地震的库仑应力加载；（d） 1920年海原地震和1927年古浪地震对2022年门源地震的库仑应力加载
Figure 2. Stress interaction among the three strong earthquakes along the Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone
The magenta lines and beach balls are the current earthquake ruptures and the related focal mechanisms，and the light blue lines and beach balls express the receive faults and the related focal mechanisms. （a，b） The cumulated Coulomb stress changes associated with 1920 Haiyuan earthquake just before 1927 Gulang earthquake and 2022 Menyuan earthquake；（c） The cumulated Coulomb stress changes associated with the 1927 Gulang earthquake just before 2022 Menyuan earthquake；（d） The joint Coulomb stress interaction on 2022 Menyuan earthquake associated with 1920 Haiyuan and 1927 Gulang earthquakes
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图 4 （a） 青藏高原北部历史强震对2022年门源M6.9地震的累积库仑应力加载；（b） 扣除1920年海原M8.5地震、1927年古浪M8.0地震和1954年山丹M7.3地震应力影响后，2022年门源M6.9地震断层面的库仑应力累积变化
Figure 4. （a） The temporal evolution of the Coulomb stress on the rupture plane of the 2022 Menyuan M6.9 earthquake associated with the strong earthquakes in Table 1；（b） Same as Fig. （a），but without the stress loading associated with the 1920 Haiyuan M8.5，1927 Gulang M8.0 and 1954 Shandan M7.3 earthquakes
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图 3 祁连—海原断裂带周边强震对2022年门源M6.9地震的应力加载
Figure 3. The Coulomb stress loading on the rupture plane of 2022 Menyuan M6.9 earthquake associated with the strong earthquakes around the Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone
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图 5 祁连—海原断裂带库仑应力时空演化
彩色圆圈为接收断层参数，其中圆圈大小表示断层倾角，颜色表示断层滑动角
Figure 5. The spatio-temporal Coulomb stress evolution along the Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone
The colored circle marks the receiving fault parameters，the geometric size expresses the fault dip and the color expresses the fault rake
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图 6 基于不同有效摩擦系数
$\;\mu ' $ 给出的库仑应力时间演化Figure 6. The temporal evolution of the Coulomb stress associated with different effective frictions
$\;\mu ' $ ![]()
图 8 祁连—海原断裂带库仑应力变化
（a） 1540年和1888年两次M7.0地震对祁连—海原断裂带的库仑应力影响；（b） 1540年M7.0地震、1888年M7.0地震和表1中的历史强震引起的祁连—海原断裂带的累积库仑应力变化
Figure 8. The Coulomb stress changes of the Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone
（a） The Coulomb stress changes associated with the 1540 M7 and 1888 M7 earthquakes；（b） The cumulated Coulomb stress changes of Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone associated with the 1540 M7 and 1888 M7 earthquakes as well as the strong earthquakes in Table 1
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图 9 祁连—海原断裂带1920年以来M5以上地震活动与周边地震引起的库仑应力变化过程对比
Figure 9. Comparison of the M≥5 earthquake activity along the Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone since 1920 and the Coulomb stress loading associated with the surrounding strong earthquakes
表 1 青藏高原北部及周边1900年以来的强震同震位错模型
Table 1 Coseismic rupture models of the strong earthquakes in northern Tibetan Plateau since 1900
发震日期
年−月−日地名 M 震中位置 走向
/°倾向
/°滑动角
/°破裂长度
/km破裂宽度
/kmSS
/mDS
/m来源 东经/° 北纬/° 1920−12−16 海原 8½ 104.10 37.04 110 88 14 23 30 4.39 −1.09 ① 104.50 36.90 112.5 88 14 64 30 6.31 −1.57 104.95 36.74 310.6 88 14 31 30 4.99 −1.24 105.58 36.52 112.6 88 14 39 30 6.21 −1.55 105.96 36.16 148.4 88 14 74 30 6.93 −1.73 1927−05−23 古浪 8.0 101.50 37.69 139 80 0 11 20 3 0 ② 101.58 37.61 122 80 0 11 20 3.3 0 101.69 37.56 116 80 0 12 20 3.6 0 101.81 37.51 122 80 0 11 20 4 0 101.91 37.46 102 80 0 16 20 6 0 102.09 37.43 99 80 0 16 20 7 0 102.27 37.41 92 80 0 14 20 7 0 102.42 37.41 95 80 0 18 20 3 0 102.63 37.39 90 80 0 14 20 2 0 102.25 38.07 139 40 90 42 20 0 −1.50 1932−12−25 昌马 7.6 96.70 39.70 115 79 30 116 20 2.34 −1.35 ① 1936−02−07 康乐 6.8 103.40 35.40 270 70 10 36 15 0.73 −0.13 ③ 1937−01−07 阿兰湖 7.5 97.60 35.50 110 70 15 208 20 3.96 −1.06 ④ 1947−03−17 达日 7.7 99.50 33.30 135 60 60 150 20 2.00 −3.46 ④ 1954−02−11 山丹 7.3 101.30 39.00 290 45 35 90 20 1.45 −1.02 ① 1954−07−31 腾格里 7.0 104.18 38.80 153 83 171 58 15 −0.94 −0.15 ① 1963−04−19 阿兰湖 7.0 97.00 35.70 277 80 −10 68 15 1.16 0.2 ① 1973−07−14 玛尼 7.0 86.48 35.18 81 60 −35 59 15 0.78 0.55 ① 1976−08−16 松潘 7.2 104.08 32.60 165 63 40 30 15 1.10 0.90 ④ 1976−08−23 平武 7.2 104.30 32.50 155 65 40 22 15 1.10 0.90 ④ 1990−04−26 共和 7.0 100.33 36.06 346 78 128 59 15 −0.41 −0.52 ① 1997−11−08 玛尼 7.5 87.33 35.07 76 90 −5 170 20 5 0.44 ⑤ 2001−11−14 昆仑山 8.1 90.54 35.95 99 90 5 346 20 4 −0.35 ⑤ 2008−05−12 汶川* 7.9 103.32 31.00 − − − − − − − ⑥ 2016−01−21 门源* 6.4 101.60 37.70 − − − − − − − ⑦ 2017−08−08 九寨沟* 7.0 103.82 33.20 − − − − − − − ⑧ 2021−05−21 玛多* 7.4 98.30 34.60 − − − − − − − ⑨ 2022−01−08 门源* 6.9 101.26 37.77 − − − − − − − ⑦ 注，*表示这些地震的相关震源参数采用有限断层模型反演给出；SS为走向方向滑动量，左旋为正；DS为倾向方向滑动量，正断为正。最后一列来源：① 万永革等（2007）； ② Guo et al （2020） ；③ 梅秀苹等（2012）；④Shan et al （2015） ；⑤ 沈正康（2003）；⑥Shen et al （2009） ；⑦ 李振洪等（2022）；⑧ 张旭等（2017）；⑨ USGS （2021）。
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表 2 青藏高原东北缘岩石圈介质模型参数
Table 2 The model parameters of the lithosphere structure in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau
分层 厚度/km vP/（km·s−1） vS/（km·s−1） 密度
/（kg·m−3）ηk/（1018 Pa·s） ηm/（1019 Pa·s） 沉积层 10 5.9 3.41 2500 弹 性 上地壳 10 6.175 3.57 2700 低速层 12 5.85 3.38 2600 中地壳 10 6.4 3.70 3000 6.30 1.00 下地壳 20 6.8 3.93 3100 6.30 1.00 上地幔 − 8.1 4.68 3350 0 10.00 注：ηk为开尔文体黏滞系数，ηm为麦克斯韦尔体黏滞系数。
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