Analysis of the cross-correlation between seismicity and water level and estimation of the hydraulic diffusivity in the Longtan reservoir area
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摘要:
对广西壮族自治区龙滩水库库区2013年3月1日至2019年10月31日的地震数目与水位进行互相关计算，得到了地震活动对库区蓄水响应的延迟时间为37天，并通过替代数据检验确认了其可靠性。37天的延迟时间说明在水位达到峰值后地震活动开始快速增强，可能暗示着现阶段库水流体作用的影响主要局限在库区内。根据延迟时间和地震深度分布，以及周期性边界条件下孔隙压力扩散方程的解，在不考虑孔隙压力扩散与应力耦合时得到孔隙压力扩散系数D＝（8.66±4.11） m2/s；在考虑孔隙压力扩散与应力耦合时得到扩散系数D＝（1.72±0.82） m2/s。后者在物理上更为合理，说明现阶段孔隙压力扩散与应力耦合可能是诱发龙滩库区水库地震的主要因素。
Abstract:In this study, the 37-day time lag was estimated by cross-correlating the daily number of earthquakes and the daily water level data from 1 March 2013 to 31 October 2019 in the Longtan reservoir, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. Based on the surrogate data test, we confirmed the 37-day time lag was reliable. The 37-day time lag indicates reservoir-induced enhances seismic activity rapidly after the water level reaches peak value, which may suggest the fluid effect of reservoir water is mainly confined within the reservoir area at present. With the time lag, the depth distribution of the earthquakes, and the solutions of pore pressue diffusion equations derived under periodic boundary condition, the vertical hydraulic diffusivity were estimated to be D＝（8.66±4.11） m2/s and D＝（1.72±0.82） m2/s on the condition that the pore pressure diffusion uncoupled and coupled the stress, respectively. The latter is more reasonable physically, which may indicate the coupling between diffusion of the pore pressure and stress is the main reason for inducing the earthquakes in the Longtan reservoir at present stage.
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图 1 龙滩水库地质构造及2006年9月至2019年10月的地震事件分布
F1：罗甸—望谟断裂；F2：高圩—八茂断裂；F3：凤亭—下老断裂；F4：马耳—拉浪断裂；F5：达恒—达良断裂；F6：党明—桂花断裂；F7：望谟—逻西断裂；F8：长里—八南断裂；F9：龙凤—八腊断裂
Figure 1. Structural outlines and the distribution of seismic events from September of 2006 to October of 2019 in the Longtan reservoir
F1：Luodian-Wangmo fault；F2：Gaoyu-Bamao fault；F3：Fengting-Xialao fault；F4：Maer-Lalang fault；F5：Daheng-Daliang fault；F6：Dangming-Guihua fault；F7：Wangmo-Luoxi fault；F8：Changli-Ba’nan fault；F9：Longfeng-Bala fault
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图 2 龙滩水库2013年3月1日至2019年10月31日地震活动和水位变化
（a） 地震活动N-t图；（b） M-t图和水位变化
Figure 2. The seismicity and the variation of water level from March 1，2013 to October 31，2019 in the Longtan reservoir
（a） The N-t map of seismicity；（b） The M-t map of seismicity and the change of water level
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图 3 标准化地震数目与水位的互相关
（a） 以天为单位的标准化后的地震数目与水位的互相关，其中灰色代表滤波之前的结果，黑色为滤波后的结果；（b） 以月为单位的标准化后的地震数目与水位的互相关
Figure 3. Cross-correlation between the standardized number of earthquakes and water level
（a） Cross-correlation between standardized number of earthquakes and water level in day，where the gray line represents the results before filtering，and the black line represents the results after filtering；（b） Cross-correlation between standardized number of earthquakes and water level in month
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图 4 标准化后的水位w （a）和地震数目n （b）的功率谱
Figure 4. The power spectra of standardized water level w （a） and number n of earthquakes （b）
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图 5 （a） 滤波后的标准化地震数目ns和水位ws；（b） 以月为单位的标准化地震数目nm和水位wm
Figure 5. （a） Standardized number of earthquakes ns and water level ws after filtering；（b） Standardized number of earthquakes nm and water level wm in month
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