Characteristics of moderate-strong seismicity in the western Ludong-Huanghai block and the influence from surrounding earthquakes
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摘要:
鲁东—黄海地块西部为华北地块东侧的次级地块，其地震活动具有显著的周期特征，地块内部的中强地震活动特征和周边大震对该地区的影响对研究该地区地震活动状态有重要意义。采用小波分析方法定量计算了鲁东—黄海地块西部历史地震的活动周期，并结合中强地震活动的定性分析、时空演化、能量释放及周边大震等资料，探讨了该地区的地震活动特征。结果显示：① 鲁东—黄海地块西部M5.0以上地震活动存在着60.6—78.6 a的长周期，该周期反映了地震活跃—平静的韵律特征，据此M≥5.0地震可划分为活跃时段 Ⅰ （1844—1879年）、活跃时段 Ⅱ（1905—1949年）和活跃时段Ⅲ（1974年至今）。1997年以来，该地区处于活跃时段末期的弱释放阶段；② 在三个活跃时段，地震活动的主体地区不同，活跃时段 Ⅰ ， Ⅱ以海域地震活动为主，并且地震活动水平海域强、陆域弱。活跃时段Ⅲ陆域、海域均有M≥6.0地震活动；③ 1815年以来，鲁东—黄海地块西部M≥5.0地震与华北M≥6.0地震活动大致同步，当鲁东—黄海地块西部中强地震恰好处于较强活跃时段时，华北地块M6.0地震显著平静后，M≥6.0地震先从鲁东—黄海地块西部开始活动，然后向华北地块中西部地区活动；④ 当太平洋板块西侧的俯冲带上MW≥5.0中深源地震活跃，并发生MW≥7.0地震时，鲁东—黄海地块西部易于发生MS≥6.0地震，这可能是太平洋板块西侧深部俯冲构造动力作用增强导致的结果。
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关键词:
- 鲁东—黄海地块 /
- 地震活动 /
- Morlet小波变换 /
- 地震周期特征
Abstract:The seismicity in the western Ludong-Huanghai block, a sub block in the eastern side of the North China block, has a significant periodic characteristic. Therefore, it is of great importance to study the seismicity in this area, the characteristics of its internal moderate strong seismicity and the influence from surrounding large earthquakes. In this paper, the wavelet analysis method is used to quantitatively calculate the activity period of historical earthquakes in the block. At the same time, in combination with the data on qualitative analysis of moderate-strong earthquakes, spatio-temporal evolution, energy release and the influence from surrounding large earthquakes, the state and characteristics of seismicity in the block are discussed. The results show that: ① There is a long periodicity of 60.6−78.6 years for M≥5.0 earthquakes in the western Ludong-Huanghai block, which reflects the rhythmic characteristics of seismic active-quiescence. Based on which, M≥5.0 earthquakes can be divided into active periods Ⅰ （1844−1879）, Ⅱ （1905−1949）, and Ⅲ （1974 to present）. Since 1997, the seismicity in the western Ludong-Huanghai block has been in the weak release stage at the end of the active period; ② In the three active periods, the main seismic areas are different. In the first and second active periods, the seismicity in the sea is dominant, and the earthquakes in the sea are stronger than those in the land, while in the third active period, it is very different. In which, M≥6.0 earthquakes presented in both land and sea; ③ Since 1815, M≥5.0 earthquakes in the western Ludong-Huanghai block and those with M≥6.0 earthquakes in the North China block have roughly exhibited synchronous activity characteristics. In other words, when M≥5.0 earthquakes in the western Ludong-Huanghai block happen in a strong active period, it generally firstly broke the significant calm of M≥6.0 earthquakes in the North China block. Then, the seismicity moves towards the central and western areas of the North China block; ④ When intermediate and deep-focus earthquakes with MW≥5.0 in the subduction zone are active and those with MW≥7.0 happen at the same time on the western side of the Pacific plate, it may promote the occurrence of MS≥6.0 earthquakes in the western Ludong-Huanghai block, which may reflect the strengthening of deep subduction tectonic dynamic action.
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图 1 鲁东—黄海地块西部M≥5.0历史地震及东部（125°E以东） 1973年以来M≥5.0地震分布
125°E以西地震来自历史地震目录和速报目录；125°E以东地震来自1973年以来NEIC地震目录（USGS，2022）；活动地块边界参考张培震等（2003）活动地块研究结果
Figure 1. Distribution of M≥5.0 historical earthquakes in the western Ludong-Huanghai block and M≥5.0 earthquakes in the eastern part （east of 125°E） since 1973
The earthquakes in the west of 125°E come from the historical earthquakes catalog and the earthquakes rapid report catalog；the earthquakes in the east of 125°E is from the NEIC earthquakes catalog （USGS，2022） since 1973；the boundary of active blocks refers to the research results of Zhang et al （2003）
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图 3 鲁东—黄海地块西部M≥5.0地震M-t图
Figure 3. M-t diagram of M≥5.0 earthquakes in the western Ludong-Huanghai block
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图 4 1840年以来鲁东—黄海地块西部M≥5.0地震M-t图（a），年释放能量（b）和年频次（60个月窗长，1个月滑动步长）（c）
Figure 4. M-t diagram （a），annual released energy （b） and annual frequency （60 months window length，1 month sliding） （c） of M≥5.0 earthquakes in the western Ludong-Huanghai block
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图 5 各活跃时段强、弱释放阶段释放能量、最大震级差、年频次特征（a）及活跃时段Ⅱ，Ⅲ M5.0以上地震频次图，窗长60个月（b）
Figure 5. Released energy，maximum magnitude difference，annual frequency characteristics of strong and weak release stages in each active period （a） and frequency diagram of M≥5.0 earthquakes in active period Ⅱ and Ⅲ window length of 60 months （b）
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图 6 鲁东—黄海地块西部M≥5.0地震贝尼奥夫应变周期（a）与小波总功率谱（b）
Figure 6. Benioff strain period （a） and total wavelet power spectrum （b） of M≥5.0 earthquakes in western Ludong-Huanghai block
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图 8 鲁东—黄海西部M≥5.0地震（a）和华北地块M≥6.0地震（b）的M-t图
Figure 8. M-t diagrams of M≥5.0 earthquakes in the western Ludong-Huanghai block （a） and M≥6.0 earthquakes in North China block （b）
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图 10 鲁东—黄海地块以东太平洋西带MW≥7.0地震及鲁东—黄海地块西部M≥5.0地震震中分布
Figure 10. Epicenter distribution of MW≥7.0 earthquakes in the western Pacific belt to the east of Ludong-Huanghai block and M≥5.0 earthquakes in the western Ludong-Huanghai block
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图 11 鲁东—黄海地块以东太平洋西带MW≥7.0地震及鲁东—黄海地块西部M≥5.0地震的时序曲线和蠕变曲线
Figure 11. Time series and creep curves of MW≥7.0 earthquakes in the western Pacific belt to the east of Ludong-Huanghai block and M≥5.0 earthquakes in the western Ludong-Huanghai block
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图 12 鲁东—黄海以东太平洋西带MW≥7.0地震M-t图和MW≥5.0中深源地震年频次及鲁东—黄海地块西部M≥5.0地震
Figure 12. M-t map of MW≥7.0 earthquakes in the western Pacific zone to the east of Ludong-Huanghai block，annual frequency of MW≥5.0 intermediate and deep focus earthquakes and M≥5.0 earthquakes in the western Ludong-Huanghai block
表 1 鲁东—黄海地块西部活跃时段地震活动特征统计表
Table 1 Statistics of seismicity characteristics during active period in the western Ludong-Huanghai block
活跃时段 起止年份 持续时间/a M≥5.0地震
总能量/（1014J）M≥5.0地震
频次M≥6.0地震
频次最大震级/M M≥5.0地震
平均年频次Ⅰ 1 844—1 879 36 33.3 16 7 7.0 0.44 Ⅱ 1 905—1 949 45 24.3 1 9 6 6.8 0.42 Ⅲ 1 974—2 013 40 4.19 15 4 6.2 0.36 1 974年至今 50.5 4.21 16 4 6.2 0.32 
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表 2 鲁东—黄海地块西部活跃时段强、弱释放活动特征统计表
Table 2 Statistics of characteristics of strong and weak release activities during active period in the western Ludong-Huanghai block
活跃时段 起止
年份持续
时间/aM≥5.0地震
总能量/JM≥5.0
地震频次M≥6.0
地震频次最大地震
震级/MM≥5.0地震
平均年频次弱释放时段
与强释放
时段能量
百分比强释放时段
与弱释放时段
最大地震
震级差弱释放期与强
释放期M≥5.0
地震平均年频次
的百分比Ⅰ ① 1 844—1 853 10 2.94×1015 11 6 7.0 1.1 13.3% 0.5 18.2% ② 1 854—1 879 26 3.91×1014 5 1 6.5 0.2 Ⅱ ① 1 905—1 932 28 2.32×1015 15 5 6.8 0.5 4.7% 0.8 40% ② 1 933—1 949 17 1.08×1014 4 1 6.0 0.2 Ⅲ ① 1 974—1 996 23 4.09×1014 11 4 6.2 0.5 2.4% 0.9 40% ② 1 997—2 013
1997年至今17
27.59.63×1012
1.16×10134
50
05.1
5.10.2
0.22.8% 0.9 40% 注：① 强释放；② 弱释放。
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表 3 鲁东—黄海地块以东太平洋西带MW≥7.0地震对鲁东—黄海地块西部中强地震影响的预报效能
Table 3 Prediction effect of MW≥7.0 earthquakes in the western Pacific belt to the east of Ludong-Huanghai block on moderate strong earthquakes in the western Ludong-Huanghai block
滞后时间/d 效能检验 滞后时间/d 效能检验 R R0 R R0 30 0.02 0.02 350 0.17 0.16 90 0.01 0.08 380 0.15 0.16 180 0.07 0.13 530 0.18 0.16 220 0.15 0.15 560 0.19 0.17 260 0.19 0.15 580 0.17 0.17 300 0.21 0.16 600 0.16 0.17
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