Statistical characteristics of enhanced seismicity before strong earthquakes based on earthquake cases in Chinese mainland
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摘要:
依据 《中国震例》 （1966—2017年）对1966年以来中国大陆东部MS＞6.0、西部MS＞7.0强震前地震活动增强的异常现象特征进行了系统的梳理，并试图总结不同活动构造地块周缘强震前地震活动增强的异常时空演化特征。结果显示：① 我国大陆大震前普遍存在地震活动增强现象，33个震例中有21个震例存在震前地震活动增强异常，占比达64%；② 西部地区大多数震例的地震活动增强空间范围表现为中间尺度或构造尺度，且主震震级越大，越有可能出现大范围的地震活动增强；③ 西部地区出现中强地震活动增强的概率高于东部地区，前兆地震活动增强的平均震级较大，发生大震（M＞7.0）的概率增大；④ 西部地区地震活动增强的时间尺度与震级成正比，而东部地区随着震级增大，更可能出现中期到中短期的地震活动增强异常；⑤ 多数西部地区震例在震前出现不同时间尺度的地震活动增强叠加的现象；⑥ 川滇菱形地块的强震前均出现了中长期尺度的地震条带交会现象、不同空间尺度的地震空区以及中短期尺度的中小震活动增强现象，并且对大震地点有较好的指示意义。巴颜喀拉东边界与北、西及南边界大震前存在显著的不同地震活动增强特征，震前未出现中强地震围空的现象。
Abstract:Before strong earthquakes, enhanced seismicity manifested by increased magnitude, frequency, or accelerated strain release generally appears within a specific temporal and spatial range of the source area. This significant enhanced seismicity is often observed before moderate-strong earthquakes occurred in Chinese mainland or abroad. The seismogenic processes of large earthquakes are multiscale and diverse, involving localization of deformation, fault heterogeneities, and variable local loading rate effects. Enhanced seismicity prior to moderate-strong earthquakes is closely related to such processes and exhibits different characteristics. An in-depth study of enhanced seismicity will help us to understand the seismogenic process of strong-large shocks, which may bring positive effect on predicting strong shocks based on them.
Many studies have been performed to analyze the characteristics of enhanced seismicity. A more thoughtful and systematic study is needed due to rapidly increased strong earthquake data in Chinese mainland and the urgent requirement for statistical predictive indicators. In this study, we intend to summarize the statistical characteristics of the prominent enhanced seismicities before moderate-strong earthquakes and attempt to seek the proper mechanism. Based on Earthquake Cases in China （1966−2017）, the spatio-temporal characteristics of the seismicity before strong earthquakes with magnitude MS≥6.0 in the eastern Chinese mainland and MS≥7.0 in the western Chinese mainland are summarized statistically. In the meantime, the regional features of enhanced seismicity before the strong earthquakes within the SichuanYunnan rhombic block, Bayan Har block, and North China block are also studied. The main contents and conclusions are as follows:
Among the 33 earthquake cases studied in this paper, 21 showed enhanced seismicity before the main shock, accounting for 64%, including five earthquakes of MS6.0−6.9, 14 earthquakes of MS7.0−7.9, and two earthquakes of MS8.0 or above. The percentage of enhanced seismicity is 42% for sub-grade class from MS6.0 to MS6.9, 74% for for sub-grade class from MS7.0 to MS7.9 and 100% for sub-grade class from MS8.0 or above. The possibility of the occurrence of enhanced seismic activity will increase with the magnitude of the main shock. The enhancement of seismicity appeared in 13 out of 18 cases in western Chinese mainland, accounting for 72%; 8 out of 15 cases in eastern Chinese mainland, accounts for 53%.
Secondly, in most cases for western Chinese mainland, the spatial extent of enhanced seismicities was observed within the intermediate or tectonic scale, and the probability of enhanced seismicity with a significant spatial scale increases with the magnitude of the main shock. Furthermore, the likelihood of enhanced seismicity with a large magnitude in western Chinese mainland is higher than in eastern Chinese mainland. The larger the average magnitude of enhanced premonitory seismicity, the more likely strong earthquakes with MS>7.0 occur. The duration of seismic activity enhancement in the western Chinese mainland is directly proportional to magnitude of the main shock, while in the eastern Chinese mainland, the relatively more significant events tend to be associated with a mid-short-term enhanced seismicity.
Thirdly, the strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block were preceded by the medium-long term intersected seismic strips, the various spatial-scale seismic gaps, and the enhancement of small-moderate earthquakes at medium-short-term scales. These features significantly indicate the location of further quakes, which deserves more attention. Different from the eastern border of the Bayan Har block, at the other three boundaries of the Bayan Har block, strong earthquakes are often attacked with seismic gaps encircled by premonitory medium-strong earthquakes. The seismic gap generally arises in medium-long-term time scales, and the mid-short-term scale enhanced seismicity is notable before strong earthquakes in the northern margin of North China block. In particular, the magnitude of the Haicheng earthquake is comparable to that of the Tangshan earthquake. Still, the Haicheng earthquake was not preceded by a significant and long seismicity enhancement, which suggests that the secondary blocks or adjacent tectonic influences may also control the enhancement of seismicity before earthquake.
Fourthly, enhanced seismicity prior to large earthquakes drives damage to the surrounding rocks. These enhanced seismicities are not limited to the faults that generate large earthquakes. Still, they drive distributed rupture and local rock mass deformation, ultimately resulting in major slip zones and large earthquakes. Laboratory studies of rocks and similar samples have shown that a relatively long period of distributed deformation precedes the onset of large ruptures. The enhanced seismicity manifested in foreshocks is the most significant signal for the subsequent occurrence of a larger seismic event at a similar time and space. However, the enhanced seismicity does not appear as a foreshock in every case related to the seismogenic mechanism. The cascade-up framework and pre-slip model are generally used to account for the occurrence of a foreshock, whereas the progressive localization framework is suitable for explaining the enhancement of seismicity without significant foreshocks.
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图 1 本文研究涉及的活动构造地块和震例时空分布图
图中地块边界据张培震等（2003），红色虚线圈代表震前存在地震活动显著增强现象的震例
Figure 1. Active tectonic blocks and the spatio-temporal distributions of earthquake cases used in this study
（The block boundaries refer to Zhang et al （2003），red dashed circles represents earthquake cases with enhanced seismicity prior to large earthquakes
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图 2 中国大陆西部（a）和东部（b）不同震级档和空间尺度的地震前存在地震活动增强现象的震例个数
Figure 2. The number of earthquake cases with premonitory enhanced seismicity at different spatial scaleand magnitude class in western （a） and eastern （b） Chinese mainland，respectively
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图 3 不同震级档和空间尺度的地震前存在地震活动增强现象的个数
Figure 3. The number of earthquake cases with premonitory enhanced seismicity at different spatial scale and magnitude
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图 4 中国大陆西部（a）和东部（b）前兆地震活动增强的震级统计特征
Figure 4. Magnitude statistical characteristics of premonitory enhanced seismicity in western （a） and eastern （b） Chinese mainland respectively
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图 5 中国大陆西部和东部的前兆地震活动增强时间尺度统计特征
Figure 5. Temporal statistical characteristics of premonitory enhanced seismicity in western and eastern Chinese mainland respectively
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图 6 中国大陆西部和东部地震活动增强的时间尺度随震级的变化
Figure 6. Temporal scales variation of premonitory enhanced seismicity with magnitude in western and eastern Chinese mainland respectively
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图 7 川滇菱形地块内震前地震活动增强的时空特征演化示意图
Figure 7. Schematic illustration of spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of premonitory enhanced seismicity in the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block
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图 8 巴颜喀拉地块地震活动增强特征的时空演化示意图
Figure 8. Schematic illustration of the spatio-temporal evolution of the premonitory enhanced seismicity of the Bayan Har block
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图 9 地震活动增强与大震孕育相互关系模式示意图（修改自Kato，Ben-Zion，2021）
（a） 地震活动增强引发较大范围的分布式岩石损伤；（b） 前震序列发生在大震时空紧邻区地区，岩石集中损伤；（c） 地震活动增强、前震组合形式的大震触发模型
Figure 9. Schematic illustrations of the relationship between enhanced seismicity and generation processes of strong earthquakes （modified from Kato and Ben-Zion，2021）
（a） Rock damage caused by enhanced seismicity in large scale；（b） Localization of deformation around the eventual rupture zone caused by foreshocks；（c） An integrated model including enhanced seismicity and foreshocks for the initiation of strong earthquake
表 1 本文所用具有前兆地震活动增强的震例基本信息
Table 1 Basic information of earthquake cases with premonitory enhanced seismicity used in this study
序号 发震时间
年-月-日北纬/° 东经/° MS 深度/km 地点 是否存在震前
地震活动增强1 1 966−03−22 31.50 115.00 7.2 9 邢台 是 2 1 967−03−27 38.50 116.50 6.3 30 河间 3 1 969−07−26 21.75 111.75 6.4 5 阳江 4 1 970−01−05 24.10 102.60 7.8 13 通海 5 1 973−02−06 31.50 100.40 7.6 17 炉霍 是 6 1 974−05−11 28.10 104.00 7.1 14 大关 是 7 1 975−02−04 40.70 122.80 7.3 16 海城 是 8 1 976−04−06 40.20 112.10 6.3 18 和林格尔 是 9 1 976−05−29 24.55 98.75 7.4 21 龙陵 是 10 1 976−07−28 39.60 118.20 7.8 11 唐山 是 11 1 976−08−16 32.70 104.08 7.2 15 松潘 12 1 976−09−23 40.00 106.35 6.2 35 巴音木仁 13 1 977−05−12 39.20 117.70 6.2 1 9 宁河 14 1 979−07−09 31.50 119.30 6.0 12 溧阳 15 1 979−08−25 41.23 108.11 6.0 30 五原 是 16 1 984−05−21 32.70 121.60 6.2 17 南黄海 是 17 1 985−08−23 39.58 75.60 7.4 7 乌恰 18 1 988−11−06 22.83 99.72 7.5 13 澜沧-耿马 是 1 9 1 990−04−26 36.12 100.13 7.0 32 共和 是 20 1 994−12−31 20.52 109.32 6.1 7 北部湾 21 1 995−07−12 21.98 99.07 7.3 10 孟连西 是 22 1 996−02−03 27.30 100.22 7.0 10 丽江 是 23 1 996−11−19 35.43 78.35 7.1 16 和田 是 24 1 998−01−10 41.10 114.30 6.2 10 尚义 25 2 001−11−14 35.93 90.53 8.1 10 昆仑山西口 是 26 2 008−03−21 35.80 81.43 7.3 33 于田 27 2 008−05−12 31.00 103.40 8.0 14 汶川 是 28 2 010−04−14 33.10 96.70 7.1 33 玉树 是 29 2 013−04−20 30.30 103.00 7.0 13 芦山 是 30 2 014−02−12 36.10 82.50 7.3 12 于田 31 2 017−08−08 33.20 103.82 7.0 20 九寨沟 是 32 1 989−10−19 39.94 113.84 6.1 14 大同-阳高 是 33 1 996−05−03 40.83 109.62 6.4 20 包头 是 
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