Characteristics of seismic b-value of Changning shale gas region，Sichuan，from a dense seismic array
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摘要:
随着川南页岩气快速规模化地开采，四川长宁地区地震频发，不仅发生了大量微地震而且伴随发生了多个中强地震，地震风险持续增高。本文基于长宁地区的107个密集台站在2021年4月28日至2022年6月30日期间所记录的连续波形使用深度学习震相拾取方法所构建的观测区高分辨率地震目录，通过最大似然法计算了四川长宁页岩气开发区频度−震级关系式中的b值，对b值的时空分布特征进行了分析。结果表明：长宁地区的平均b值为1.06，长宁—双河采卤区的b值为1.25，而长宁—昭通页岩气开采区的b值为1.01，这意味着页岩气开采区可能具有更高的应力水平；b值在空间分布上呈显著的非均匀性，这种非均匀性在一定程度上反映了地下介质的不均匀性；有感地震更倾向于在低b值区域发生，且地震发生前可能会出现b值下降的情况。
Abstract:Changning, an area in the southwestern Sichuan basin, is characterized by abundant resources of salt mine and shale gas. With rapid and large-scale exploitation of the shale gas, this area has suffered from several moderate-to-strong earthquakes and numerous microearthquakes. The active seismicity means the potential seismic risk in the area.
For the assessment of seismic risk, the seismic parameter of b in the frequency-magnitude relationship plays an important role because it can reflect the change in underground stress. To obtain the b-value characteristics in Changning area, we first constructed a high-resolution earthquake catalog with a deep learning-based method including phase picking, event association and earthquake location. The data for constructing the catalog are continuous waveforms recorded by 107 dense stations in Changning from April 28, 2021 to June 30, 2022. Finally, we have located more than 240 000 seismic events and employed a maximum likelihood method to calculate b-values of Changning area.
For the whole Changning area, b-value is 1.06 on average, larger than that of Sichuan Province （0.8）. The parameter b behaves differently in the northern Changning-Shuanghe brine mining area and in the southern Changning-Zhaotong shale gas production area. Their b-values are 1.25 and 1.01, respectively, indicating that earthquakes in the two areas have distinctly different seismogenic environments. Changning area is divided into elements with a size of 0.02°×0.02°. As for each element, if earthquakes within it are not less than 50, we calculate its b-value. The resulting b-value spatial map shows significant heterogeneity, which reflects the heterogeneity of the underground media to some degree. Most earthquakes with magnitude above 4.0 occur within or on the edges of low b-value regions, so we can conclude that felt earthquakes will tend to occur in such regions.
The temporal evolution of b-value from the earthquake clusters Ⅰ , Ⅱ and Ⅲ in the southern shale-gas region of Changning area shows that the b-value is low or significantly decreases before a large earthquake, and increases rapidly after the event. The decrease in b-value before the occurrence of large events probably indicates the accumulation of stress, similar to large tectonic earthquakes.
These b-value spatio-temporal characteristics have implications for judging where and when large earthquakes will happen. Therefore, comprehensive analysis of the b-value spatial distribution map and its temporal evolution is helpful for assessing the seismic hazard of Changning area.
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Keywords:
- Changning region /
- b value /
- seismic activity /
- induced earthquake
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图 8 长宁地区b值（a）及其标准差δb （b）的空间分布
M≥4.0地震的发震时间和震级分别为：1. 2021年7月7日 M4.2；2. 2021年9月3日 M4.7；3. 2021年11月12日 M4.3；4. 2021年11月17日 M4.6；5. 2021年11月21日 M4.5；6. 2021年12月1日 M4.3；7. 2021年12月10日 M4.3；8. 2022年4月6日 M4.8；9. 2022年4月7日 M4.2；10. 2022年4月15日M4.0
Figure 8. Distribution of b-value （a） and their standard deviation δb （b） for Changning region
The origin time and magnitude of M≥4.0 earthquakes （denoted by red circles） are：1. M4.2 on July 7，2021；2. M4.7 on September 3，2021；3. M4.3 on November 12，2021；4. M4.6 on November 17，2021；5. M4.5 on November 21，2021；6. M4.3 on December 1，2021；7. M4.3 on December 10，2021；8. M4.8 on April 6，2022；9. M4.2 on April 7，2022；10. M4.0 on April 15，2022
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图 1 四川长宁地区地质构造及2018年以来M≥5.0地震分布图
地质构造改编自镇雄、威信、筠连及叙永区域地质报告（四川省地质局第一区测队六分队，1973；四川省地质局，1976；云南省地质局第二区域地质测量大队，1976；贵州省地质局区域地质调查大队第一分队，1979）
Figure 1. Topography of Changning region of Sichuan and distribution of M≥5.0 earthquakes since 2018
The geological structure is modified from the regional geological reports of Zhenxiong，Weixin，Junlian and Xuyong （The Sixth Division of the First Regional Geological Survey Team of Sichuan Provincial Geological Bureau，1973；Sichuan Provincial Geological Bureau，1976；The Second Regional Geological Survey Team of Yunnan Provincial Geological Bureau，1976；The First Division of Regional Geological Survey Team of Guizhou Provincial Geological Bureau，1979）
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图 2 研究区M≥2.0地震的M-t （a）和地震频次N-t （b）图（数据截止于2022年6月30日）
Figure 2. Diagrams of M-t （a） and N-t （b） （M≥2.0）（The data are available by June 30，2022）
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图 3 本研究所用地震台阵及其在2021年4月28日至2022年6月30日记录到的地震震中分布
Figure 3. Location of the seismic array used in this study and distribution of epicenters between 28 April 2021 and 30 June 2022 recorded by the seismic array
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图 4 ML≥0.0地震的M-t图（a），N-t图（b）和累计频度曲线（c）
Figure 4. Diagrams of M-t （a），N-t （b） and cumulative frequency curve （c） of ML≥0.0 earthquakes
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图 5 2021年7月9日04:42:22.345发生的ML1.0地震事件的三分量波形
Figure 5. The three-component waveforms of one event with ML1.0 occurred at 04:42:22.345 on July 9，2021
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图 6 长宁地区及其两个分区的震级-频次曲线
（a） 整个研究区；（b） 长宁—双河采卤区；（c） 长宁—昭通页岩气开采区
Figure 6. Magnitude-frequency curves for Changning area and its two sub-areas
（a） Entire area；（b） Changning-Shuanghe salt area；（c） Changning-Zhaotong shale gas area
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图 7 长宁地区的地震丛集分布及其b值
Figure 7. Earthquake clusters and their b values in Changning region
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图 9 沿长宁背斜长轴方向和东西向的三条测线（a）及沿三条测线的垂向b值剖面分布图（b）
图（b）中数字编号代表的地震与图8相同
Figure 9. Three surveying lines along the major axis of the Changning anticline and east-west direction （a），and the vertical b-value profiles along the three surveying lines （b）
The earthquakes indicated by the numbers in Fig. （b） are the same as those in Fig.8
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图 10 不同区域b 值随时间的变化（数字编号标注的地震与图8相同）
（a） 长宁—双河采卤区；（b） 长宁—昭通页岩气开采区Ⅰ区；（c） 长宁—昭通页岩气开采区Ⅱ区；（d） 长宁—昭通页岩气开采区Ⅲ区；（e） 2021年12月1日ML4.3地震前后
Figure 10. Variation of b value over time in different regions （The numbers present the same earthquakes as in Fig.8）
（a） Changning-Shuanghe salt area；（b） RegionⅠ of Changning-Zhaotong shale gas region；（c） Region Ⅱ of Changning-Zhaotong shale gas region；（d） Region Ⅲ of Changning-Zhaotong shale gas region；（e） Before and after the ML4.3 earthquake on December 1，2021
表 1 长宁地区的地震丛集参数
Table 1 Parameters of earthquake clusters in Changning region
分区 地震丛集 b b值误差 a Mc 事件个数 长宁—双河
采卤区丛集① 0.95 0.02 3.52 0.4 2 490 丛集② 1.17 0.02 3.52 0.2 4 417 丛集③ 1.34 0.02 3.61 0.1 10 381 丛集④ 1.24 0.01 3.85 0.0 21 715 丛集⑤ 1.29 0.01 3.77 0.1 17 558 丛集⑥ 1.42 0.01 3.99 0.0 24 843 长宁—昭通
页岩气
开采区Ⅰ区 丛集 
0.86 0.01 3.82 0.0 13 596 丛集 
0.90 0.02 3.53 0.3 6 218 丛集 
0.87 0.02 3.60 0.2 6 104 Ⅱ区 丛集 
1.22 0.01 3.88 0.1 16 971 Ⅲ区 丛集 
0.98 0.02 3.83 0.2 12 566 丛集 
1.00 0.01 3.68 0.3 6 950 丛集 
1.07 0.02 4.03 0.3 17 267 丛集 
1.03 0.02 4.39 0.2 37 216 丛集 
1.03 0.01 4.06 0.2 16 784 丛集 
0.92 0.02 3.72 0.2 6 860 
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