金星1,2) 张红才1,2) 李军1) 韦永祥1) 马强2). 2012: 地震预警震级确定方法研究. 地震学报, 34(5): 593-610.
引用本文: 金星1,2) 张红才1,2) 李军1) 韦永祥1) 马强2). 2012: 地震预警震级确定方法研究. 地震学报, 34(5): 593-610.
Jin Xingup, Zhang Hongcaiup, Li Jun Wei Yongxiang Ma Qianguppayda. 2012: Research on earthquake early warning magnitude estimate. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 34(5): 593-610.
Citation: Jin Xingup, Zhang Hongcaiup, Li Jun Wei Yongxiang Ma Qianguppayda. 2012: Research on earthquake early warning magnitude estimate. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 34(5): 593-610.

地震预警震级确定方法研究

详细信息
  • 中图分类号: P315.7

Research on earthquake early warning magnitude estimate

  • 摘要: 地震预警技术是减轻地震灾害损失的有效手段之一.地震预警系统中,地震震级计算是最重要也是最困难的部分之一.利用日本KiK-net台网和四川汶川余震共142次地震事件的记录,分别采用tau;c和Pd方法统计得到了地震预警震级的计算公式,震级计算的方差分别为0.62和0.56个震级单位.为消除震级计算过程中出现的震级饱和现象,作者拓展了Pd方法,提出了一套对位移幅值连续追踪测定的算法.当时间窗长度为10 s时,采用该方法的震级计算方差仅为0.37个震级单位,充分满足地震预警系统的需求.同时,该方法也实现了信息的连续过渡,提高了对现有信息的利用率.最后,还对位移幅值Pd用于地震动峰值PGV的估计以及不同特征参数间的相容性等内容进行了讨论.

     

  • 金星, 马强, 李山有. 2003. 四种计算地震反应数值方法的比较研究[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 23(1): 18——30.

    马强, 金星, 李山有. 2003. 单自由度系统地震动力反应的实时计算方法[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 23(5): 61——68.

    马强. 2008. 地震预警技术研究与应用[D]. 哈尔滨: 中国地震局工程力学研究所: 124——134.

    张红才, 金星, 李军, 韦永祥, 马强. 2012. 地震预警震级计算方法研究综述[J]. 地球物理学进展, 27(2): 464——474.

    Allen R M, Kanamori H. 2003. The potential for earthquake early warning in southern California[J]. Science, 300: 786——789.

    Allen R M, Brown H, Hellweg M, Kireev A, Neuhauser D. 2007. Real——time test of the ElarmS earthquake early warning methodology[J]. J Geophys Res, 112(B08311), doi:10.1029/2008GL036366.

    Ellsworth W L, Beroza G C. 1995. Seismic evidence for an earthquake nucleation phase[J]. Science, 268: 851——855.

    Ellsworth W L, Heaton T. 1994. Real——time analysis of earthquakes: early——warning systems and rapid damage assessment[J]. Sensors, (April): 27——33.

    Erdik M, Fahjan Y, Ozel O, Alcik H, Mert A, Gul M. 2003. Istanbul earthquake rapid response and the early warning system[J]. Bull Earthq Eng, 1(1): 157——163.

    Hsiao N C, Wu Y M, Shin T C, Li Z, Teng T L. 2009. Development of an earthquake early warning system in Taiwan[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 36: L00B02, doi:10.1029/2008 GL036596.

    Iannaccone G, Zollo A, Elia L. 2010. A prototype system for earthquake early——warning and alert management in southern Italy[J]. Bull Earthq Eng. 8(5):1105——1129.

    Iglesias A, Singh S K, Santoyo M A, Pacheco J, Ordaz M. 2007. The seismic alert system for Mexico City: an evaluation of its performance and a strategy for its improvement[J]. Bull Seism Soc Amer, 97(5): 1718——1729.

    Iio Y. 1992. Slow initial phase of the P——wave velocity pulse generated by micro——earthquakes[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 19(5): 477——80.

    Iio Y. 1995. Observations of the slow initial phase generated by micro——earthquakes: implications for earthquake nucleation and propagation[J]. J Geophys Res, 100(B8): 15333——15349.

    Kamigaichi O, Saito M, Doi K, Matsumori T, Tsukada S, Takeda K, Shimoyama T, Nakamura K, Kiyomoto M, Watanabe Y. 2009. Earthquake early warning in Japan: warning the general public and future prospects[J]. Seism Res Lett, 80(5): 717——726.

    Kanamori H, Hauksson E, Heaton T. 1997. Real——time seismology and earthquake hazard mitigation[J]. Nature, 390: 461——464.

    Kanamori H. 2005. Real——time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation[J]. Annu Rev Earth Pl Sci, 33: 195——214.

    Kilb D, Gomberg J. 1999. The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?[J]. J Seismol, 3(4): 409——420.

    Lancieri M, Zollo A. 2008. A Bayesian approach to the real——time estimation of magnitude from the early P and S wave displacement peaks[J]. J Geophys Res, 113: B12302, doi:10.1029/2007 JB005386.

    Mori J, Kanamori H. 1996. Rupture initiations of microearthquakes in the 1995 Ridgecrest, California, sequence[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 23: 2437——2440.

    Murphy S, Nielsen S. 2009. Estimating earthquake magnitude with early arrivals: A test using dynamic and kinematic models[J]. Bull Seism Soc Amer, 99(1): 1——23.

    Nakamura Y. 1988. On the urgent earthquake detection and alarm system (UrEDAS)[C]∥Proceedings of Ninth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 7: 673——678.

    Nakatani M, Kaneshima S, Fukao Y. 2000. Size dependent microearthquake initiation inferred from high——gain and low——noise observations at Nikko district, Japan[J]. J Geophys Res, 105(B12): 28095——28109.

    Olson E L, Allen R M. 2005. The deterministic nature of earthquake rupture[J]. Nature, 438: 212——215.

    Rydelek P, Horiuchi S. 2006. Is earthquake rupture deterministic?[J]. Nature, 442: E5——E6, doi:10.1038/nature04963.

    Umeda Y. 1990. High——amplitude seismic waves radiated from the bright spot of an earthquake[J]. Tectonophysics, 175(1——3): 81——92.

    Umeda Y. 1992. The bright spot of an earthquake[J]. Tectonophysics, 211(1——4): 13——22.

    Wolfe C J. 2006. On the properties of predominant——period estimators for earthquake early warning[J]. Bull Seism Soc Amer, 96(5): 1961——1965.

    Wu Y M, Kanamori H. 2005. Experiment on an onsite early warning method for the Taiwan early warning system[J]. Bull Seism Soc Amer, 95(1): 347——353.

    Wu Y M, Li Z. 2006. Magnitude estimation using the first three seconds P——wave amplitude in earthquake early warning[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 33: L16312, doi:10.1029/2006GL026871.

    Wu Y M, Kanamori H, Richard M A, Hauksson E. 2007. Determination of earthquake early warning parameters, τc and Pd, for southern California[J]. Geophys J Int, 170: 711——717.

    Wu Y M, Kanamori H. 2008. Development of an earthquake early warning system using real——time strong motion signals[J]. Sensors, 8(1): 1——9.

    Zollo A, Lancieri M, Nielsen S. 2006. Earthquake magnitude estimation from peak amplitudes of very early seismic signals on strong motion records[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 33: L23312, dio:10.1029/2006GL027795.

    金星, 马强, 李山有. 2003. 四种计算地震反应数值方法的比较研究[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 23(1): 18——30.

    马强, 金星, 李山有. 2003. 单自由度系统地震动力反应的实时计算方法[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 23(5): 61——68.

    马强. 2008. 地震预警技术研究与应用[D]. 哈尔滨: 中国地震局工程力学研究所: 124——134.

    张红才, 金星, 李军, 韦永祥, 马强. 2012. 地震预警震级计算方法研究综述[J]. 地球物理学进展, 27(2): 464——474.

    Allen R M, Kanamori H. 2003. The potential for earthquake early warning in southern California[J]. Science, 300: 786——789.

    Allen R M, Brown H, Hellweg M, Kireev A, Neuhauser D. 2007. Real——time test of the ElarmS earthquake early warning methodology[J]. J Geophys Res, 112(B08311), doi:10.1029/2008GL036366.

    Ellsworth W L, Beroza G C. 1995. Seismic evidence for an earthquake nucleation phase[J]. Science, 268: 851——855.

    Ellsworth W L, Heaton T. 1994. Real——time analysis of earthquakes: early——warning systems and rapid damage assessment[J]. Sensors, (April): 27——33.

    Erdik M, Fahjan Y, Ozel O, Alcik H, Mert A, Gul M. 2003. Istanbul earthquake rapid response and the early warning system[J]. Bull Earthq Eng, 1(1): 157——163.

    Hsiao N C, Wu Y M, Shin T C, Li Z, Teng T L. 2009. Development of an earthquake early warning system in Taiwan[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 36: L00B02, doi:10.1029/2008 GL036596.

    Iannaccone G, Zollo A, Elia L. 2010. A prototype system for earthquake early——warning and alert management in southern Italy[J]. Bull Earthq Eng. 8(5):1105——1129.

    Iglesias A, Singh S K, Santoyo M A, Pacheco J, Ordaz M. 2007. The seismic alert system for Mexico City: an evaluation of its performance and a strategy for its improvement[J]. Bull Seism Soc Amer, 97(5): 1718——1729.

    Iio Y. 1992. Slow initial phase of the P——wave velocity pulse generated by micro——earthquakes[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 19(5): 477——80.

    Iio Y. 1995. Observations of the slow initial phase generated by micro——earthquakes: implications for earthquake nucleation and propagation[J]. J Geophys Res, 100(B8): 15333——15349.

    Kamigaichi O, Saito M, Doi K, Matsumori T, Tsukada S, Takeda K, Shimoyama T, Nakamura K, Kiyomoto M, Watanabe Y. 2009. Earthquake early warning in Japan: warning the general public and future prospects[J]. Seism Res Lett, 80(5): 717——726.

    Kanamori H, Hauksson E, Heaton T. 1997. Real——time seismology and earthquake hazard mitigation[J]. Nature, 390: 461——464.

    Kanamori H. 2005. Real——time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation[J]. Annu Rev Earth Pl Sci, 33: 195——214.

    Kilb D, Gomberg J. 1999. The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?[J]. J Seismol, 3(4): 409——420.

    Lancieri M, Zollo A. 2008. A Bayesian approach to the real——time estimation of magnitude from the early P and S wave displacement peaks[J]. J Geophys Res, 113: B12302, doi:10.1029/2007 JB005386.

    Mori J, Kanamori H. 1996. Rupture initiations of microearthquakes in the 1995 Ridgecrest, California, sequence[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 23: 2437——2440.

    Murphy S, Nielsen S. 2009. Estimating earthquake magnitude with early arrivals: A test using dynamic and kinematic models[J]. Bull Seism Soc Amer, 99(1): 1——23.

    Nakamura Y. 1988. On the urgent earthquake detection and alarm system (UrEDAS)[C]∥Proceedings of Ninth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 7: 673——678.

    Nakatani M, Kaneshima S, Fukao Y. 2000. Size dependent microearthquake initiation inferred from high——gain and low——noise observations at Nikko district, Japan[J]. J Geophys Res, 105(B12): 28095——28109.

    Olson E L, Allen R M. 2005. The deterministic nature of earthquake rupture[J]. Nature, 438: 212——215.

    Rydelek P, Horiuchi S. 2006. Is earthquake rupture deterministic?[J]. Nature, 442: E5——E6, doi:10.1038/nature04963.

    Umeda Y. 1990. High——amplitude seismic waves radiated from the bright spot of an earthquake[J]. Tectonophysics, 175(1——3): 81——92.

    Umeda Y. 1992. The bright spot of an earthquake[J]. Tectonophysics, 211(1——4): 13——22.

    Wolfe C J. 2006. On the properties of predominant——period estimators for earthquake early warning[J]. Bull Seism Soc Amer, 96(5): 1961——1965.

    Wu Y M, Kanamori H. 2005. Experiment on an onsite early warning method for the Taiwan early warning system[J]. Bull Seism Soc Amer, 95(1): 347——353.

    Wu Y M, Li Z. 2006. Magnitude estimation using the first three seconds P——wave amplitude in earthquake early warning[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 33: L16312, doi:10.1029/2006GL026871.

    Wu Y M, Kanamori H, Richard M A, Hauksson E. 2007. Determination of earthquake early warning parameters, τc and Pd, for southern California[J]. Geophys J Int, 170: 711——717.

    Wu Y M, Kanamori H. 2008. Development of an earthquake early warning system using real——time strong motion signals[J]. Sensors, 8(1): 1——9.

    Zollo A, Lancieri M, Nielsen S. 2006. Earthquake magnitude estimation from peak amplitudes of very early seismic signals on strong motion records[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 33: L23312, dio:10.1029/2006GL027795.

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  • 刊出日期:  2012-08-30

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