地震形势的模糊综合评判
FUZZY SYNTHETICAL EVALUATION IN EARTHQUAKE TREND
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摘要: 由中国大陆板块内部地震活动与其周缘地震活动的相关性,可以确定我国大陆未来地震活动的主体和地震活动高潮时间[1].在此基础上,本文进一步探讨用长时间、大面积的地震活动信息,对重点监测区未来地震作出时、空、强综合评判.全文分为三部分:1.地震强度的预报.对于确定的能有效地估计未来地震强度的5项地震活动性指标,选择加权平均型的模糊综合评判方法,对监测区未来地震的震级给出明确的结果.2.发震地点预报.对于扫描单元定义了反映b值时空变化的二项指标:b值异常次数Ayi;和b值异常均值byi.通过对二项指标空间分布的综合分析,可以估计未来地震发生的地点.3.发震时间预报.把缺震时间Tl与b值回升时间Tbu,作为描述大震前平静过程的二项定量指标.在对未来地震强度作出模糊综合评判后,可用Tl,Tbu二项指标综合推断监测区未来地震发生的时间.总结的九个震例结果表明,该方法可使地震预报定量化、实用化,可以用于地震形势的预测和中、短期地震预报.Abstract: Based on the correlation of seismicity between the edges of the continental plate of China and its interior the main part of seismicity and the period of high seismicity in China will be determined. In this parer making use of seismicity information of large scale area and long time period,a synthetical evaluation method to estimate the time,location and magnitude of future earthquakes in the monitored area has been developed. There are three parts in this paper:1.Prediction of the earthquake magnitude. Five seismicity indices to determine the strength of future earthquake have been studied in detail. Applying fuzzy synthetical evaluation method that is the weighted average type to five indices,the magnitude of future earthquake in the monitored area can be more accurately given.2.Prediction of the earthquake location. Two indices,Ayi——frequaency of abnormalb-value and byi——average of abnormal b-value,were defined for the scanning unit. Adoptingsynthetical analyses of spacial distribution of two indices the location of future earthquake can be approximately estimated.3.Prediction of earthquake occurring time. The time of lacking earthquakes T1 and the rising time of b-value Tbu were applied to describe quiet process before earthquake. After making fuzzy synthetical evaluation for the magnitude of earthquake we may infer the time of occurrence of future earthquake according to the indices T1 and Tbu.The results of summarizing nine earthquakes have shown that the method in this paper will give quantitative and practical indices in earthquake prediction. It can be applied in the evaluation of earthquake trend and short and medium period earthquake prediction.
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