Relationship between regional seismic activity and strong earthquake based on the region-time-length algorithm
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摘要: 基于区域-时间-长度(RTL)算法，本文以汶川MS8.0、 于田MS7.3、 芦山MS7.0、 鲁甸MS6.5及景谷MS6.6地震为例， 对强震前地震活动异常空间分布与发震地点的关系进行分析, 并根据新提出的物理参数区域-时间-长度的面积分IRTL探索区域地震活动水平与地震发生时间的关系． 结果显示：3次MS≥7.0强震前均检测到地震活动平静， 2次MS＞6.0地震前均检测到地震活动增强， 这些地震活动平静和增强异常主要分布在震中及其附近潜在发震断裂带及周边， 异常范围和异常程度随时间由小到大再到小． MS≥7.0强震前， 地震活动平静主体区的IRTL曲线在震前1—3年从零值下降至低谷后回升，低谷点与地震发生的时间间隔为9—18个月； 鲁甸MS6.5和景谷MS6.6地震前， IRTL曲线分别在震前1年和1.8年由低值开始上升， 达到峰值后回落， 峰值点与地震发生的时间间隔分别为3个月和9个月． 本文结果表明， 地震活动平静的IRTL低谷点和地震活动增强的IRTL峰值点对地震发生可能有一定的指示意义．
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关键词:
- 区域-时间-长度(RTL)算法 /
- RTL面积分 /
- 地震活动性
Abstract: Taking Wenchuan MS8.0, Yutian MS7.3, Lushan MS7.0, Ludian MS6.5 and Jinggu MS6.6 earthquakes as examples, the relationship between spatial anomaly distribution of seismic activities and earthquakes occurrence location was analyzed based on the region-time-length (RTL) algorithm. And the relationship between regional seismic activity and earthquake occurrence time based on the new physical parameter IRTL which was the surface integral in respect to region-time-length was explored. The results show that seismic quie-scence was detected prior to the three strong earthquakes with MS≥7.0, and an enhancement of seismic activity was detected before the two MS>6.0 earthquakes. Spatial anomalies of the above seismic quiescence and enhancement were mainly distributed in the potential causative fault and its surrounding areas near the epicenters. The range and degree of anomalies chronologically changed from small to large, and then to small again. During 1--3 years prior to the earthquakes with MS≥7.0, IRTL decreased from the zero value; and when falling to the lowest value, it rebounded. The time length from the lowest point of IRTL curve to the earthquake occurrence was 9--18 months. Before the Ludian MS6.5 and Jinggu MS6.6 earthquakes, IRTL curve began to increase from the lowest point 1 year and 1.8 years separately, and then reduced after reaching the peak point. The time length from the peak points of IRTL curve to the earthquakes occurrence were three and nine months for the Ludian and Jinggu earthquakes, respectively. Therefore it is deduced that the lowest point of IRTL curve in the stage of seismic quiescence and the peak point of IRTL curve in the stage of enhanced activity may be indicators of earthquake occurrence. -
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图 1 汶川地震前震中VRTL随时间的变化
Figure 1. The temporal variation of the VRTL of the epicenter prior to Wenchuan earthquake
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图 4 于田地震前VRTL空间分布随时间的演化过程
Figure 4. The spatio-temporal evolution of VRTL prior to Yutian earthquake
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图 6 芦山地震前VRTL空间分布随时间的演化过程
Figure 6. The spatio-temporal evolution of VRTL prior to Lushan earthquake
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图 10 景谷地震前VRTL空间分布随时间的演化过程
Figure 10. The spatio-temporal evolution of VRTL prior to Jinggu earthquake
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图 11 景谷地震前地震活动增强异常区(图10b红色框)内IRTL随时间的变化
Figure 11. The temporal variation of IRTL in the anomalous region of seismicity enhancement (red frame in Fig.10b) prior to Jinggu earthquake
表 1 本文所用的地震震例及其相关参数
Table 1 Earthquake cases and their related parameters used in this study
序号 发震时间年-月-日 发震地点 北纬/° 东经/° MS Mmin r0/km 1 2008-03-21 于田 35.80 81.43 7.3 3.0—3.5 75—155 2 2008-05-12 汶川 30.95 103.40 8.0 1.5—2.3 40—100 3 2013-04-20 芦山 30.30 103.00 7.0 1.5—2.3 40—70 4 2014-08-03 鲁甸 27.11 103.33 6.5 2.0—2.3 40—70 5 2014-10-07 景谷 23.40 100.50 6.6 2.0—2.3 40—70 
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