The spatio-temporal characteristics of earth tide modulation ratio before moderate earthquakes in northwest China
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摘要: 基于1900—2015年中国大陆地区浅源地震阴历目录，依据地震活跃特征确定固体潮调制阴历日期和调制比阈值，并利用固体潮调制比时空扫描方法回顾性地研究近年来西北地区发生的3次中强地震，即2013年甘肃岷县漳县MS6.6、2015年内蒙古阿拉善MS5.8和2016年青海门源MS6.4地震前, 区域小震的固体潮调制比时空演化过程.研究结果显示:岷县漳县MS6.6和阿拉善MS5.8地震前震中区域出现固体潮调制比异常，门源MS6.4地震前震中附近的固体潮调制比异常演化时间较长; 西北地区3次中强震均发生在固体潮调制比时空扫描的高值异常集中地区及周围区域，扫描时间窗长度和固体潮调制比异常区域的大小可能与中强震的强度有一定的相关性.
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关键词:
- 固体潮调制比 /
- 阿拉善MS5.8地震 /
- 岷县漳县MS6.6地震 /
- 门源MS6.4地震
Abstract: Based on the shallow-focus earthquakes lunar catalog in Chinese mainland from 1900 to 2015, modulated lunar date and threshold of modulation ratio are defined respectively according to seismic active characteristics. The modulation ratio method is employed to carry out spatio-temporal scanning for three moderate earthquakes in northwest China, and the spatio-temporal characteristics of modulation ratio of regional small earthquakes are analyzed. Results indicate that there are modulation ratio anomalies around epicentral area before Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake and Alxa MS5.8 earthquake, evolution time of modulation ratio anomaly is relatively long for Menyuan MS6.4 earthquake. All three moderate earthquakes happened around the area with higher earth tide modulation ratio according to the spatio-temporal scanning results, and the length of time window and the abnormal area size of the earth tide modu-lation ratio may have correlations with the magnitude of moderate earthquakes. -
中国地震台网中心蒋海昆研究员在论文撰写过程中给予了指导并进行了有益的讨论，中国地震台网中心预报部测震组亦给予了支持和帮助，作者在此一并表示感谢！
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图 1 1900 (a)，1950 (b)和1970 (c)年以来中国大陆地区阴历日期地震日频次分布
实线为日频次平均值, 虚线为平均值加上一倍标准差，下同
Figure 1. Lunar calendar earthquake daily frequency statistics in Chinese mainland since 1900 (a), 1950 (b) and 1970 (c)
Solid lines indicate the mean value of lunar calendar earthquake daily frequency, dashed lines indicate the sum of mean and standard deviation, the same below
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图 2 中国大陆地区1900年以来MS≥5.0地震的固体潮年调制比
Figure 2. Annual modulation ratio of earth tide of MS≥5.0 earthquakes in Chinese mainland since 1900
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图 3 基于调制阴历日期的3次中强地震前调制及非调制地震空间分布图
(a) 2012-07-01—2013-06-30岷县漳县MS6.6地震前; (b) 2014-10-15—2015-04-14阿拉善MS5.8地震前; (c) 2014-10-01—2015-09-30门源MS6.4地震前
Figure 3. Distribution of modulated and unmodulated earthquakes before three moderate earthquakes
(a) 2012-07-01—2013-06-30 before Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake; (b) 2014-10-15—2015-04-14 before Alxa MS5.8 earthquake; (c) 2014-10-01—2015-09-30 before Menyuan MS6.4 earthquake
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图 4 西北地区1970年以来地震目录的完整性分析
(a)震级-序号法给出的地震密度分布；(b)多统计方法定量分析给出的最小完整性震级Mc的时间变化
Figure 4. Catalogue completeness analysis for northwest China since 1970
(a) Seismic rate for different magnitudes in the index domain; (b) Completeness thresholds of Mc estimated by three statistical methods
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图 5 2013年岷县漳县MS6.6地震前后固体潮调制比时空演化过程
Figure 5. The spatio-temporal evolution of earth tidal modulation ratio before and after the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake
(a) 2010-07-01—2011-06-30; (b) 2010-10-01—2011-09-30; (c) 2011-01-01—2011-12-31; (d) 2011-04-01—2012-03-31; (e) 2011-07-01—2012-06-30; (f) 2011-10-01—2012-09-30; (g) 2012-01-01—2012-12-31; (h) 2012-04-01—2013-03-31; (i) 2012-07-01—2013-06-30
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图 6 2015年阿拉善MS5.8地震前后固体潮调制比时空演化过程
Figure 6. The spatio-temporal evolution of earth tidal modulation ratio before and after the 2015 Alxa MS5.8 earthquake
(a) 2014-07-15—2015-01-14; (b) 2014-08-15—2015-02-14; (c) 2014-09-15—2015-03-14; (d) 2014-10-15—2015-04-14; (e) 2014-11-15—2015-05-14
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图 7 2016年门源MS6.4地震前固体潮调制比时空演化过程
Figure 7. The spatio-temporal evolution of earth tidal modulation ratio before 2016 Menyuan MS6.4 earthquake
(a) 2012-04-01—2013-03-31; (b) 2012-07-01—2013-06-30; (c) 2012-10-01—2013-09-30; (d) 2013-01-01— 2013-12-31; (e) 2013-04-01—2014-03-31; (f) 2013-07-01—2014-06-30; (g) 2013-10-01—2014-09-30; (h) 2014-01-01—2014-12-31; (i) 2014-04-01—2015-03-31; (j) 2014-07-01—2015-06-30; (k) 2014-10-01—2015-09-30; (l) 2015-01-01—2015-12-31
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图 8 岷县漳县MS6.6地震和门源MS6.4地震的固体潮调制比演化时间进程对比
虚线范围为固体潮调制比异常区域
Figure 8. The comparison of spatio-temporal evolution of earth tide modulation ratio of Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake with that of Menyuan MS6.4 earthquake
Dashed ellipses indicate the abnormal areas with high modulation ratio
(a) 2013-01-01—2013-12-31; (b) 2013-03-01—2014-02-28; (c) 2013-04-01—2014-03-31; (d) 2013-09-01—2014-08-31; (e) 2013-10-01—2014-09-30; (f) 2014-11-01—2015-10-31; (g) 2014-12-01—2015-11-30; (h) 2015-01-01—2015-12-31表 1 1900年以来中国大陆MS≥5.0地震活跃阴历日期
Table 1 Statistics of seismic active period for MS≥5.0 earthquakes in Chinese mainland
统计震级及日期范围 地震活跃的阴历日期 朔 上弦 望 下弦 MS≥5.0 初二 初八 — — 1900年以来 MS≥6.0 廿九、初一、初二 初八 十五 廿一 MS≥7.0 初二 初八、初九 — 廿四 MS≥5.0 初二、初三 初八 十六、十七 — 1950年以来 MS≥6.0 初一、初二、初三 初八 — 廿一 MS≥7.0 初一、初二 初九 十五 — MS≥5.0 初二 初八 十六 — 1970年以来 MS≥6.0 初一、初二 初八 十三 廿五 MS≥7.0 初一、初二 初八、初九 十五 廿四 
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