Statistical analysis of microwave radiation anomaly before earthquake: A case study of Kamchatka Peninsula
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摘要: 岩石加载实验证实受载岩体能够产生特定频段的微波辐射能量增强，卫星遥感数据分析也表明，个别震例强震前可能存在微波辐射异常，这一重要发现亟待普遍性检验与统计特征研究. 本文收集了俄罗斯堪察加半岛2003—2011年Aqua AMSR-E 的微波辐射亮温数据，并对地震和火山活动信息进行了统计，进而利用改进后的异常识别方法及构建的背景场对9年内多次强震的震前短临异常的位置和时间信息进行了检测与统计. 结果表明：① 勘察加半岛平均亮温变化存在明显的季节特征，1—4月和11—12月为平稳期、5—10月为剧变期，平稳期的亮温曲线基本保持平稳，而剧变期呈抛物线型，自4月起持续增温至7月，随后持续降温至11月；② 受地形地貌影响，半岛南部和东南部亮温较高，中西部亮温较低；③ 火山点亮温小于地震点和非地震点，火山活动对亮温影响有限；④ 使用四分位数法判断辐射异常检测指数，发现17次地震中有13次可以识别到震前异常，其中MS≥6.0地震均可检测到异常，且异常发生在地震前1个月以内.Abstract: It was confirmed that microwave energy is emitted during the compression of rock and the energy can be detected by some special frequency bands. The analysis of satellite remote sensing data found that there may be abnormal microwave radiation before several earthquakes. This important discovery is in urgent need of universal inspection and statistical analysis.In this study, the data of Aqua AMSR-E microwave radiation brightness temperature of nine years (2003−2011) in Kamchatka Peninsula were collected, and the information of earthquake and volcanic activity in this period was counted. The time and location information of microwave radiation anomalies before all the strong earthquakes over the past nine years were studied by using the improved method of anomaly identification and the construction of the background field. The results show that: ① The average brightness temperature change of Kamchatka Peninsula has obvious seasonal characteristics, which can be divided into two periods, from January to April and from November to December are stationary periods and from May to October is fluctuation period. The brightness temperature curves of the stationary periods are basically steady and that of the fluctuation period is parabolic, for it shows continual warming from April to July and then continual cooling until November. ② Due to the effect of topography, the brightness temperature is higher in the southern and southeastern peninsula, while that of the central and western part is low. ③ The brightness temperature of volcanoes is less than that of the seismic and non-seismic points, which indicates that the volcanic activity has a limited influence on the brightness temperature. ④ Using the four percentile method to determine the radiation anomaly detection index, it was found that there are 13 times of 17 earthquakes can be identified anomalies before earthquakes, and allMS≥6.0 earthquakes can be detected anomalies, which occurred in one month before the earthquake.
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Keywords:
- before earthquake /
- microwave radiation /
- Kamchatka Peninsula /
- AMSR-E /
- stati-stical analysis
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图 1 2003—2011年堪察加半岛MS≥5.0地震分布
Figure 1. Distribution of MS≥5.0 earthquakes in Kamchatka Peninsula from 2003 to 2011
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图 2 异常识别方法的研究区域选取与计算改进
Figure 2. Research area selection and computing improvement of abnormal recognition method
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图 4 2003—2011年堪察加半岛微波亮温月均值
Figure 4. Monthly mean of microwave brightness temperature in Kamchatka Peninsula from 2003 to 2011
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图 5 堪察加半岛2003—2011年亮温月均值影像
Figure 5. The image of monthly mean brightness temperature of Kamchatka Peninsula from 2003 to 2011
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图 7 火山点、地震点和非震点2003—2011年微波亮温TB日均值
Figure 7. Daily mean of the microwave brightness temperature TB of the volcanoes，seismic and non-seismic points from 2003 to 2011
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图 8 2003年6月16日MS6.9地震的S异常指数变化在9号点（a）和21号点（b）的统计结果
Figure 8. The statistical results of S index variation at point 9 （a） and point 21 （b） for the MS6.9 earthquake on June 16，2003
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图 9 2004年6月10日MS6.9地震的S异常指数变化在9号点（a）和21号点（b）的统计结果
Figure 9. The statistical results of S index variation at point 9 （a） and point 21 （b） for the MS6.9 earthquake on June 10，2004
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图 10 2006年5月22日MS6.2地震的S异常指数变化在1号点（a）、5号点（b）、11号点（c）和12号点（d）的统计结果
Figure 10. The statistical results of S index variation for the MS6.2 earthquake on May 22，2006 at the point 1 （a），point 5 （b），point 11 （c） and point 12 （d）
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图 11 2007年5月30日MS6.4地震在3号点（a）和9号点（b） S异常指数变化的统计结果
Figure 11. The statistical results of S index variation at point 3 （a） and point 9 （b） for the MS6.4 earthquake on May 30，2007
表 1 AMSR-E辐射计的主要性能参数
Table 1 Main parameters and characteristics of AMSR-E
中心频率/GHz 带宽/MHz 动态范围/K 瞬间视场/km 主波束效率 入射角/° 天底偏角/° 扫描间距/km 扫描方式 6.925 350 2.7—340 43×75 95.1% 55.0 47.5 10.1×9.0 以40 r/min的
速度呈圆锥
形扫描10.650 100 2.7—340 29×51 94.8% 55.0 47.5 10.1×9.0 18.70 200 2.7—340 16×27 95.8% 55.0 47.5 10.1×9.0 23.80 400 2.7—340 18×32 94.8% 55.0 47.5 10.1×9.0 36.50 1 000 2.7—340 8.2×14 93.9% 55.0 47.5 10.1×9.0 89.00（A） 3 000 2.7—340 3.7×6.5 94.5% 55.0 47.5 10.1×9.0 89.00（B） 3 000 2.7—340 3.5×5.9 93.7% 54.5 47.0 4.5×4.4 
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表 2 2003—2011年堪察加半岛剧烈活动火山统计
Table 2 The statistics of active volcanoes in Kamchatka Peninsula from 2003 to 2011
火山名称 东经/° 北纬/° 海拔/m 火山类型 上次显著喷发时间 活动次数 Koryaksky 158.7 53.3 3 430 成层火山 2009-09 4 Karymsky 159.4 54.0 1 513 成层火山 2009-08 13 Bezymianny 160.6 56.0 2 882 成层火山 2009-11 12 Gorely 158.0 52.6 1 799 破火山口 2010-07 1 Kizimen 160.3 55.1 2 334 成层火山 2011-10 3 Klyuchevskoy 160.6 56.1 4 754 成层火山 2010-06 9 Sheveluch 161.4 56.7 3 283 成层火山 2011-04 16
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表 3 17次地震S指数的检测结果
Table 3 S index detection results of the seventeen earthquakes
发震时刻 MS 检测异常点编号 异常出现的时间/d 年-月-日 震前 震后 2003-02-06 5.0 无 无 无 2003-06-16 6.9 9，21 4，13，22，29 3 2004-06-10 6.9 9，21 2，5，14，16 无 2005-06-12 5.0 2，3 11，30 无 2006-05-22 6.2 1，5，11，12 3，12，20，21，24 无 2006-08-17 5.7 11，12 10，25 无 2007-05-30 6.4 3，9 1，9 2 2007-11-25 5.2 1，2，4 15，20，23 无 2008-03-01 5.4 无 无 无 2009-04-23 5.2 2，18，19 3，12，14，30 2 2009-06-06 5.2 无 无 无 2009-11-27 5.0 3，18 1 4 2009-12-12 5.1 7，16 16 无 2010-05-02 5.4 无 无 无 2010-10-19 5.0 1，6，22 3，16，23 无 2010-11-27 5.1 5，21 6，7，8，10 无 2010-12-15 5.0 5，17，18 4，14，16，21 无
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