Earthquake prediction efficiency inspection of water level in Huize well and its anomaly mechanism
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摘要: 云南会泽井水位在几次中强地震前均出现了显著的异常变化，表明该井水位对其周边的中强地震具有较好的映震效果。本文利用Molchan图表法对会泽井水位的预测效能进行了定量检验，并对其水位上升异常机理进行了分析探讨。Molchan图表法检验结果显示：会泽井水位异常的整体预测效能较好，对地震发生的时间和地点具有一定的指示意义；地震对应优势预测时间段为3个月以内，优势预测地区为川滇菱形地块以东区域。此外，会泽井处于地块边界带上的断裂交会部位，对与震源过程相关的区域构造活动响应较为灵敏，具有较好的预测效能。Abstract: Significant abnormal changes of water level in Huize well of Yunnan Provience were observed before several earthquakes, which indicates that the anomalies of water level in Huize well has good prediction efficiency to the earthquakes occurred surrounding the well. In this paper, the prediction efficiency of the water level in Huize well was tested by the Molchan diagram method, and the anomaly mechanism of water level was analyzed. The results show that the water level in Huize well has good prediction efficiency to earthquakes, and the anomalies can be used to predict the time and the site of the next earthquake. The prediction interval from anomaly appearance to next earthquake occurrence corresponds to three months, and the prediction area is the eastern part of Sichuan-Yunnan block. Because the Huize well was drilled in the junction of fault zones, water level in the well was sensitivity to the regional tectonic activity associated with the seismogenic process, which leads to the good prediction efficiency.
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Keywords:
- Yunnan Huize /
- well water level /
- prediction efficiency /
- anomaly mechanism
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图 1 会泽井的水文地质条件（a）和井孔柱状图（b）
Figure 1. Hydrogeological conditions （a） and the bore hole histogram （b） of Huize well
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图 2 会泽井静水位与该地区的降雨观测曲线（a）及4次地震前会泽井静水位的显著异常变化（b）
Figure 2. Curves of water level in Huizi well and the rainfall in the area （a） as well as abnormal changes of water level of Huize well before four earthquakes （b）
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图 3 会泽井周边地震的空间分布（a）及水位的Molchan检验结果（b）
Figure 3. The spatial distribution of earthquakes around the Huize well （a） and the test results of water level by Molchan chart method （b）
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图 4 川滇菱形地块及附近地震的空间分布（a）及水位Molchan检验结果（b）
Figure 4. The spatial distribution of earthquakes in and around Sichuan-Yunnan block （a） and the test results of water level by Molchan chart method （b）
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图 5 会泽井水位5日差分曲线（a，c）及Molchan检验结果（b，d）
Figure 5. Five-day difference water level curves （a，c） and the test results of water level by Molchan chart method （b，d）
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图 6 会泽井水位去趋势（a，b）和5日差分值（c，d）处理的预测效能
Figure 6. Prediction efficiency of water level in Huize well based on the de-trended data （a，b） and five-day difference data （c，d）
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图 7 会泽及周边观测井的位置及其水位与地震的关系
F1：莲峰断裂；F2：小江断裂；F3：西鱼河—昭通断裂；F4：磨盘山—绿汁江断裂
Figure 7. Location of wells and comparision of earthquakes and water levels nearby by Huize well
F1：Lianfeng fault；F2：Xiaojiang fault；F3：Xiyuhe-Zhaotong fault；F4：Mopanshan-Lüzhijiang fault
表 1 会泽井水位出现异常变化及对应的地震
Table 1 Abnormal changes of water level and corresponding earthquakes
发震日期
年-月-日震中位置 地点 MS 井震距
/km水位变化
幅值/m水位变化开始时间
年-月-日水位变化距
发震时间/d北纬/° 东经/° 2012−09−07 27.50 103.95 云南彝良 5.7 136 0.27 2012−08−13 25 2013−04−20 30.30 103.00 四川芦山 7.0 421 0.21 2013−04−06 14 2014−05−07 25.48 101.92 云南元谋 4.7 161 0.38 2014−04−18 19 2014−08−03 27.10 103.40 云南鲁甸 6.5 71 0.33 2014−07−20 14 
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