Retrospective test on the forecasting efficacy of PI models with different parameters for the Tohoku-Oki MW9.0 earthquake
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摘要: 以日本局部地区(32.0°N—46.0°N,136.0°E—148.0°E)为研究区域,应用图像信息(PI)方法,获得了不同计算参数模型下包含2011年3月11日日本东北MW9.0地震的多组预测窗热点图像。以0.5°×0.5°和1.0°×1.0°的网格尺度和5—10年预测窗长为主要参数变量,并以R值和受试者工作特征(ROC)方法检验不同参数模型下PI方法的预测效能。结果表明,多组参数模型下MW9.0地震所在预测窗内,其震中所在网格及其摩尔邻近网格均曾出现热点图像,表明PI方法可对日本东北MW9.0地震作出预测。综合R值评分和ROC检验分析可知,网格尺度相对较大、预测窗长相对较长的模型,其预测效果更好。Abstract: In this paper, the local area (32.0°N–46.0°N, 136.0°E–148.0°E) of Japan was chosen to be the studied region to verify the predictability of the pattern informatics (PI) method under different models with different parameters, using the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve test andR score test. Pattern informatics (PI) method was applied to retrospec-tive study on the forecasting of large earthquakes in this region, especially the 2011 Tohoku-Oki MW9.0 earthquake. Different forecasting hotspot maps with different parameters were obtained. The grid size were 0.5°×0.5° and 1.0°×1.0°, and forecasting window length was 5 to 10 years respectively. The results showed that, PI method could forecast the Tohoku-Oki MW9.0 earthquake under most of the models, and the hotspots appeared in MW9.0 earthquake’s epicentral grid or its Moore neighborhood grids. The ROC test andR score test analysis revealed that the forecasting effect was better for the models with larger grid size and longer window length compared to other models.
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Keywords:
- PI method /
- earthquake hotspot /
- Tohoku-Oki MW9.0 earthquake /
- parameter model /
- retrospective test /
- R score test /
- ROC test
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图 3 模型1—12的PI热点图像
蓝色空心圆圈表示预测窗时段内发生的M≥7.4地震,MW9.0地震以绿色星形表示,色块为计算所得热点。每个预测窗起止时间为起始年1月1日至结束年12月31日,每列对应同一模型下的5个窗口
Figure 3. Hotspot maps of PI for model one to model twelve
Blue hollow circles represent the M≥7.4 earthquakes occurred in the forecasted window,and the MW9.0 earthquake is the green star,warm boxes are calculated hotspots. Every forecasting window starts from 1 January in beginning year to 31 December in ending year. The five windows of every column belong to the same model
图 4 不同模型下MW9.0地震的PI热点图示例
(a)—(c)为模型4的结果,网格尺寸为0.5°×0.5°;(d)—(f)为模型10的结果 ,网格大小为1.0°×1.0°
Figure 4. Examples of hotspot map associated with the MW9.0 earthquake under different models
(a)−(c) are the results calculated by model 4,and the grid size is 0.5°×0.5°; (d)−(f) are the results calculated by model 10,and the grid size is 1.0°×1.0°
表 1 2000年以来研究区域内发生的M≥7.4地震列表
Table 1 Earthquakes with M≥7.4 in the studied region since 2000
序号 发震时间(日本时间) 震中位置 北纬/° 东经/° Mj 年−月−日 时:分:秒 1 2003−09−26 04:50:07 北海道以南近海 41.78 144.08 8.0 2 2004−09−05 23:57:17 近畿南岸近海 33.14 137.14 7.4 3 2011−03−11 14:46:18 宫城东部海域 38.10 142.86 9.0 4 2011−03−11 15:08:53 岩手东岸海域 39.82 142.77 7.4 5 2011−03−11 15:15:34 茨城日立近海 36.12 141.25 7.6 6 2011−03−11 15:25:44 日本海沟 37.91 144.75 7.5 注:表中震中位置的中文名称参考《世界地震目录》(宋治平等,2011)。 表 2 模型参数设置
Table 2 Setting of the parameters used in models
模型序号 网格尺度 t3−t2/a tb取值年份 t1−tb/a 1 0.5°×0.5° 5 1986 16 2 0.5°×0.5° 6 1982 18 3 0.5°×0.5° 7 1978 20 4 0.5°×0.5° 8 1974 22 5 0.5°×0.5° 9 1970 24 6 0.5°×0.5° 10 1966 26 7 1.0°×1.0° 5 1986 16 8 1.0°×1.0° 6 1982 18 9 1.0°×1.0° 7 1978 20 10 1.0°×1.0° 8 1974 22 11 1.0°×1.0° 9 1970 24 12 1.0°×1.0° 10 1966 26 表 3 包含MW9.0地震的各组模型预测窗的检验值统计
Table 3 Test values of R and ROC for the forecast windows containing the MW9.0 earthquake under different models
模型序号 预测窗时段 E M ROC(Ef) R值 模型序号 预测窗时段 E M ROC(Ef) R值 1 2007−2011 否 否 0.349 −0.058 7 2007−2011 否 否 0.416 −0.055 2008−2012 否 是 0.401 −0.055 2008−2012 否 是 0.425 −0.061 2009−2013 否 否 0.356 −0.090 2009−2013 否 是 0.394 −0.091 2010−2014 是 是 0.380 0.159 2010−2014 否 是 0.455 0.177 2011−2015 否 否 0.357 0.154 2011−2015 否 是 0.446 0.189 2 2006−2011 否 否 0.163 0.154 8 2006−2011 否 是 0.444 0.183 2007−2012 否 否 0.159 0.139 2007−2012 否 是 0.427 0.195 2008−2013 否 否 0.145 −0.085 2008−2013 否 否 0.405 −0.079 2009−2014 否 是 0.175 −0.058 2009−2014 否 否 0.425 −0.055 2010−2015 否 是 0.360 −0.118 2010−2015 是 是 0.420 0.128 3 2005−2011 否 是 0.404 0.157 9 2005−2011 是 是 0.461 0.402 2006−2012 否 是 0.373 0.171 2006−2012 是 是 0.470 0.409 2007−2013 否 是 0.352 0.180 2007−2013 否 是 0.444 0.171 2008−2014 否 否 0.326 0.157 2008−2014 否 是 0.457 0.409 2009−2015 否 否 0.167 0.135 2009−2015 否 是 0.407 0.128 4 2004−2011 是 是 0.267 0.316 10 2004−2011 是 是 0.406 0.320 2005−2012 是 是 0.405 0.386 2005−2012 是 是 0.457 0.415 2006−2013 否 是 0.398 0.162 2006−2013 是 是 0.461 0.421 2007−2014 否 是 0.400 0.151 2007−2014 是 是 0.470 0.415 2008−2015 否 是 0.398 0.180 2008−2015 是 是 0.470 0.409 5 2003−2011 是 是 0.275 0.272 11 2003−2011 否 是 0.462 0.105 2004−2012 是 是 0.244 0.143 2004−2012 否 是 0.483 −0.037 2005−2013 是 是 0.434 0.418 2005−2013 否 是 0.497 −0.067 2006−2014 是 是 0.444 0.401 2006−2014 是 是 0.431 0.421 2007−2015 否 是 0.412 0.151 2007−2015 是 是 0.438 0.409 6 2002−2011 否 是 0.258 0.081 12 2002−2011 是 是 0.464 0.253 2003−2012 否 是 0.267 0.084 2003−2012 是 是 0.474 0.105 2004−2013 是 是 0.219 0.110 2004−2013 否 是 0.457 0.139 2005−2014 是 是 0.420 0.184 2005−2014 否 是 0.500 0.189 2006−2015 是 是 0.463 0.428 2006−2015 否 是 0.500 0.195 注:每个预测窗起止时间为起始年1月1日至结束年12月31日。E和M分别表示MW9.0地震的震中网格和摩尔邻近网格。研究资料的截止时间为2015年12月31日,所以仅对有效部分的预测窗进行回溯性检验。 -
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