Abstract:
In this paper, the local area (32.0°N–46.0°N, 136.0°E–148.0°E) of Japan was chosen to be the studied region to verify the predictability of the pattern informatics (PI) method under different models with different parameters, using the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve test and
R score test. Pattern informatics (PI) method was applied to retrospec-tive study on the forecasting of large earthquakes in this region, especially the 2011 Tohoku-Oki
MW9.0 earthquake. Different forecasting hotspot maps with different parameters were obtained. The grid size were 0.5°×0.5° and 1.0°×1.0°, and forecasting window length was 5 to 10 years respectively. The results showed that, PI method could forecast the Tohoku-Oki
MW9.0 earthquake under most of the models, and the hotspots appeared in
MW9.0 earthquake’s epicentral grid or its Moore neighborhood grids. The ROC test and
R score test analysis revealed that the forecasting effect was better for the models with larger grid size and longer window length compared to other models.