云南地区震前地下流体异常特征统计分析

孔庆敏, 王广才, 史浙明

孔庆敏, 王广才, 史浙明. 2018: 云南地区震前地下流体异常特征统计分析. 地震学报, 40(5): 632-645. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20170206
引用本文: 孔庆敏, 王广才, 史浙明. 2018: 云南地区震前地下流体异常特征统计分析. 地震学报, 40(5): 632-645. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20170206
Kong Qingmin, Wang Guangcai, Shi Zheming. 2018: Statistical analysis of pre-seismic anomalous characteristics of subsurface fluids in Yunnan region. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 40(5): 632-645. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20170206
Citation: Kong Qingmin, Wang Guangcai, Shi Zheming. 2018: Statistical analysis of pre-seismic anomalous characteristics of subsurface fluids in Yunnan region. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 40(5): 632-645. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20170206

云南地区震前地下流体异常特征统计分析

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(U1602233,41572238,41602266)资助
详细信息
    通讯作者:

    王广才: e-mail: wanggc@pku.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: 

Statistical analysis of pre-seismic anomalous characteristics of subsurface fluids in Yunnan region

  • 摘要: 依据 《中国震例》 资料,统计分析了云南地区1966—2006年MS≥5.0地震的地下流体测项异常,结果表明:超过70%的水位和水温震前异常表现为上升,水氡和水位异常出现时间最早;震级越大相应的流体异常范围就越大;大多数震前流体异常会持续到地震发生,说明流体异常与震前地壳活动有关,并据此得出云南地区地震发生时间及异常检测井至震中距离的经验性边界方程。分类汇总云南地区地下流体测项的异常形态,识别出该地区地下流体异常的5种主要异常形态,即趋势转折类、周期类、突变类、阈值类和综合类,并举例阐明了各种异常形态的特征及其可能的成因。本文研究结果对于认识云南地区流体异常特征以及提升流体异常应用水平具有一定的参考意义。
    Abstract: Based on the information collected from the Earthquake Cases in China from 1966 to 2006, this paper carries out a statistical analysis of the subsurface fluids precursory anomalies of MS≥5.0 earthquakes in Yunnan Province. The results showed that: ① More than 70% water level and water temperature anomalies were observed rising before the earthquakes, and radon and water level anomalies appeared much earlier than temperature anomaly. ② The larger the earthquake magnitude, the larger the corresponding anomaly area of the fluid. ③ Most pre-seismic fluids anomalies persist until the earthquake occurs, indicating that they were related to pre-earthquake crustal activity, and a set of empirical boundary equations were obtained in an attempt to assist in the future earthquake prediction. Five types of groundwater anomaly were identified according to the summary of the abnormal morphology of groundwater, including trend turning class, period class, mutation class, threshold class and synthesis class, and typical cases, as well as possible reasons for each type were presented. The results of this paper could be helpful for understanding the abnormal characteristics of fluid and improving the application of fluid anomaly in the Yunnan region.
  • 图  1   云南地区1966—2006年MS≥5.0地震空间分布图

    Figure  1.   Spatial distribution of MS≥5.0 earthquakes from 1966 to 2006 in Yunnan region

    图  2   水氡、水位和水温异常幅值统计图

    Figure  2.   Statistics of anomaly amplitudes of water radon,water level and water temperature

    图  3   水氡、水位和水温的前兆时间及持续时间统计图

    Figure  3.   Statistics of duration and precursory time of water radon,water level and water temperature

    图  4   震级-震中距关系图

    Figure  4.   The relationship between earthquake magnitude and epicentral distance

    图  5   震中距 Δ (a)、震级 M (b)和前兆时间(c)与异常幅值的关系图

    Figure  5.   The relationship between epicentral distance (a),earthquake magnitude (b),precursory time (c) and anomaly amplitude

    图  6   前兆时间-持续时间关系图

    Figure  6.   The relationship between precursory time and duration

    图  7   震中距-前兆时间关系图

    Figure  7.   The relationship between epicentral distance and precursory time

    图  8   1996—2006年云南MS≥5.0地震地下流体测项异常类型统计

    横轴上数值分别表示1趋势转折类;2周期类;3突变类;4阈值类;5综合类 (a)水氡;(b) 水位;(c) 水温

    Figure  8.   The statistical analysis of abnormal types of subsurface fluid observation items of MS≥5.0 earthquakes from 1966 to 2006 in Yunnan region

    1 trend turning class;2 period class;3 mutation class;4 threshold class;5 synthesis class (a) Water radon;(b) Water level;(c) Water temperature

    图  9   地下流体前兆异常形态图

    图(a)和(e)分别为腾冲和澜沧的水氡旬均值曲线;图(b),(c),(f)分别为丽江井、大姚井和开远井的水位日均值曲线;(d)为沧源深水井水温日均值曲线

    Figure  9.   The abnormal shape diagram of subsurface fluids

    Figs.(a) and (e) are curves of 10-day mean value of water radon at Tengchong well and Lancang well,respectively;Figs.(b),(c) and (f) are curves of daily mean value of water level at Lijiang well,Dayao well and Kaiyuan well,respectively;Fig.(d) is curve of daily mean value of water temperature at Cangyuan well

    表  1   1996—2006年云南MS≥5.0地震前地下流体测项统计

    Table  1   The statistics of subsurface fluids precursory anomalies of MS≥5.0 earthquakes from 1966 to 2006 in Yunnan region

    MS 台站个数
    水氡 水位 水温 离子 水汞 气体类 流量
    5.0—5.9 74 25 24 18 16 7 3
    6.0—6.9 40 39 17 13 14 8 1
    7.0—7.9 33 29 14 15 8 5 2
    总数 147 93 55 46 38 20 6
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2   震级MS、震中距Δ、持续时间td和前兆时间tp与异常幅值a之间的相关关系

    Table  2   The correlation between earthquake magnitude,epicentral distance,duration,precursory time and the anomaly amplitude

    水氡 水位 水温
    MS Δ td tp a MS Δ td tp a MS Δ td tp a
    MS 1 0.659** 0.327** 0.333** −0.138 1 0.484** 0.052 0.085 0.033 1 0.587** 0.007 0.033 0.144
    Δ 1 0.306** 0.315** −0.007 1 0.121 0.116 0.037 1 −0.006 0.032 −0.042
    td 1 0.938** −0.070 1 0.940** 0.275* 1 0.927** −0.194
    tp 1 −0.064 1 0.289** 1 −0.140
    a 1 1 1
    注:**表示在0.01 水平 (双侧)上显著相关;*表示在 0.05 水平 (双侧)上显著相关。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3   变量共同度

    Table  3   Communalities

    水氡 水位 水温
    初始 提取 初始 提取 初始 提取
    MS 1.0 0.823 1.0 0.770 1.0 0.795
    Δ 1.0 0.832 1.0 0.756 1.0 0.795
    td 1.0 0.965 1.0 0.952 1.0 0.964
    tp 1.0 0.965 1.0 0.951 1.0 0.964
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5   旋转成分矩阵

    Table  5   Rotated component matrix

    水氡 水位 水温
    F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2
    MS 0.182 0.889 0.032 0.877 0.015 0.891
    Δ 0.129 0.903 0.132 0.859 0.018 0.892
    td 0.970 0.159 0.973 0.066 0.982 −0.002
    tp 0.967 0.175 0.969 0.115 0.981 0.038
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4   旋转前后的公因子方差

    Table  4   Total variance explained

    测项 成分 提取平方和载入 旋转平方和载入
    合计 方差的百分比 累积百分比 合计 方差的百分比 累积百分比
    水氡 F1 2.408 60.209% 60.209% 1.924 48.102% 48.102%
    F2 1.177 29.420% 89.629% 1.661 41.527% 89.629%
    水位 F1 2.085 52.121% 52.121% 1.904 47.604% 47.604%
    F2 1.345 33.616% 85.737% 1.525 38.133% 85.737%
    水温 F1 1.939 48.477% 48.477% 1.927 48.184% 48.184%
    F2 1.579 39.480% 87.957% 1.591 39.773% 87.957%
    下载: 导出CSV
  • 陈棋福, 郑大林, 车时. 2002a. 中国震例(1992—1994)[M]. 北京: 地震出版社: 1–429.

    Chen Q F, Zheng D L, Che S. 2002a. Earthquake Cases in China (1992−1994)[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press: 1–429 (in Chinese).

    陈棋福, 郑大林, 刘桂萍. 2002b. 中国震例(1995—1996)[M]. 北京: 地震出版社: 1–489.

    Chen Q F, Zheng D L, Liu G P. 2002b. Earthquake Cases in China (1995−1996)[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press: 1–489 (in Chinese).

    陈棋福, 郑大林, 高荣胜. 2003. 中国震例(1997—1999)[M]. 北京: 地震出版社: 1–468.

    Chen Q F, Zheng D L, Gao R S. 2003. Earthquake Cases in China (1997−1999)[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press: 1–468 (in Chinese).

    陈棋福, 郑大林, 车时. 2008. 中国震例(2000—2002)[M]. 北京: 地震出版社: 1–570.

    Chen Q F, Zheng D L, Che S. 2008. Earthquake Cases in China (2000−2002)[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press: 1–570 (in Chinese).

    车时, 蒋海昆, 付虹, 杨马陵, 马宏生. 2014. 中国震例(2003—2006)[M]. 北京: 地震出版社: 1–775.

    Che S, Jiang H K, Fu H, Yang M L, Ma H S. 2014. Earthquake Cases in China (2003−2006)[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press: 1–775 (in Chinese).

    蒋海昆, 苗青壮, 吴琼, 宋金. 2009. 基于震例的前兆统计特征分析[J]. 地震学报, 31(3): 245-259

    Jiang H K, Miao Q Z, Wu Q, Song J. 2009. Analysis on statistical features of precursor based on earthquake cases in China mainland[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 31(3): 245-259 (in Chinese).

    李新蕊. 2007. 主成分分析、因子分析、聚类分析的比较与应用[J]. 山东教育学院学报, 22(6): 23-26. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-2816.2007.06.006

    Li X R. 2007. Compare and application of principal component analysis, factor analysis and clustering analysis[J]. Journal of Shandong Education Institute, 22(6): 23-26 (in Chinese).

    刘耀炜, 任宏微, 张磊, 付虹, 孙小龙, 何德强, 余怀忠, 周志华, 张国盟. 2015. 鲁甸6.5级地震地下流体典型异常与前兆机理分析[J]. 地震地质, 37(1): 307-318. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2015.01.024

    Liu Y W, Ren H W, Zhang L, Fu H, Sun X L, He D Q, Yu H Z, Zhou Z H, Zhang G M. 2015. Underground fluid anomalies acanisms of the Ludian MS6.5 earthquake[J]. Seismology and Geology, 37(1): 307-318 (in Chinese).

    梅世蓉, 冯德益, 张国民. 1993. 中国地震预报概论[M]. 北京: 地震出版社: 1–300.

    Mei S R, Feng D Y, Zhang G M. 1993. Introduction to Earthquake Prediction in China[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press: 1–300 (in Chinese).

    孙斌. 2007. 多元统计方法在鄂尔多斯白垩系盆地都思兔河地下水系统水化学空间分布规律研究中的应用[D]. 长春: 吉林大学: 35–37.

    Sun B. 2007. Application of Multivariate Statistics Method into Research on Spatial Distribution Law of Hydrochemistry in Dusituhe Groundwater System in Ordos Cretaceous Basin[D]. Changchun: Jilin University: 35–37 (in Chinese).

    孙小龙, 王俊, 向阳, 王熠熙. 2016. 基于《中国震例》的地下流体异常特征统计分析[J]. 地震, 36(4): 120-130. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-3274.2016.04.010

    Sun X L, Wang J, Xiang Y, Wang Y X. 2016. Statistical characteristics of subsurface fluid precursors based on Earthquake Cases in China[J]. Earthquake, 36(4): 120-130 (in Chinese).

    孙逸敏. 2007. 利用SPSS软件分析变量间的相关性[J]. 新疆教育学院学报, 23(2): 120-123. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-3588.2007.02.037

    Sun Y M. 2007. Using SPSS software to analyze the correlation between variables[J]. Journal of Xinjiang Education Institute, 23(2): 120-123 (in Chinese).

    王芳. 2003. 主成分分析与因子分析的异同比较及应用[J]. 统计教育, (5): 14-17.

    Wang F. 2003. Comparison and application of principal component analysis and factor analysis[J]. Statistical Education, (5): 14-17 (in Chinese).

    吴春勇, 苏小四, 郭金淼, 董维红. 2011. 鄂尔多斯沙漠高原白垩系地下水水化学演化的多元统计分析[J]. 世界地质, 30(2): 244-253. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-5589.2011.02.013

    Wu C Y, Su X S, Guo J M, Dong W H. 2011. Multivariate statistical analysis of hydrogeochemical evolution of groundwater in Cretaceous aquifer Ordos desert plateau[J]. Global Geology, 30(2): 244-253 (in Chinese).

    薛薇. 2008. 统计分析与SPSS的应用[M]. 2版. 北京: 中国人民大学出版社: 185–191.

    Xue W. 2008. Statistical Analysis and SPSS Application[M]. 2nd ed. Beijing: China Renmin University Press: 185–191 (in Chinese).

    张肇诚, 罗兰格, 李海华. 1988. 中国震例(1966—1975)[M]. 北京: 地震出版社: 1–222.

    Zhang Z C, Luo L G, Li H H. 1988. Earthquake Cases in China (1966−1975)[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press: 1–222 (in Chinese).

    张肇诚, 罗兰格, 李海华. 1990a. 中国震例(1976—1980)[M]. 北京: 地震出版社: 1–421.

    Zhang Z C, Luo L G, Li H H. 1990a. Earthquake Cases in China (1976−1980)[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press: 1–421 (in Chinese).

    张肇诚, 罗兰格, 李海华. 1990b. 中国震例(1981—1985)[M]. 北京: 地震出版社: 1–294.

    Zhang Z C, Luo L G, Li H H. 1990b. Earthquake Cases in China (1981−1985)[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press: 1–294 (in Chinese).

    张肇诚, 郑大林, 徐京华. 1999. 中国震例(1986—1988)[M]. 北京: 地震出版社: 1–394.

    Zhang Z C, Zheng D L, Xu J H. 1999. Earthquake Cases in China (1986−1988)[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press: 1–394 (in Chinese).

    张肇诚, 郑大林, 徐京华. 2000. 中国震例(1989—1991)[M]. 北京: 地震出版社: 1–453.

    Zhang Z C, Zheng D L, Xu J H. 2000. Earthquake Cases in China (1989−1991)[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press: 1–453 (in Chinese).

    赵洪声, 苏有锦, 张立, 刘仲全, 杨杰英, 李树华, 沈荣臣, 沈斌, 李永莉, 黄云宝. 2000. 云南地震前兆与短临预报[J]. 地震研究, 23(1): 10-20. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0666.2000.01.002

    Zhao H S, Su Y J, Zhang L, Liu Z Q, Yang J Y, Li S H, Shen R C, Shen B, Li Y L, Huang Y B. 2000. The earthquake precursors and short-impending prediction in Yunnan[J]. Journal of Seismological Research, 23(1): 10-20 (in Chinese).

    郑兆苾, 张国民, 何康, 张来平. 2006. 中国大陆地震震例异常统计与分析[J]. 地震, 26(2): 29-37. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-6069.2006.02.006

    Zheng Z B, Zhang G M, He K, Zhang L P. 2006. Statistics and analyses of the anomalies of earthquake cases in China’s mainland[J]. Earthquake, 26(2): 29-37 (in Chinese).

    Cicerone R D, Ebel J E, Britton J. 2009. A systematic compilation of earthquake precursors[J]. Tectonophysics, 476(3/4): 371-396.

    Hartmann J, Levy J K. 2005. Hydrogeological and gasgeochemical earthquake precursors: A review for application[J]. Nat Ha>zards, 34(3): 279-304. doi: 10.1007/s11069-004-2072-2

    Hauksson E. 1981. Radon content of groundwater as an earthquake precursor: Evaluation of worldwide data and physical basis[J]. J Geophys Res, 86(B10): 9397-9410. doi: 10.1029/JB086iB10p09397

    Huang F Q, Li M, Ma Y C, Han Y Y, tian L, Yan W, Li X F. 2017. Studies on earthquake precursors in China: A review for recent 50 years[J]. Geodesy and Geodynamics, 8(1): 1-12. doi: 10.1016/j.geog.2016.12.002

    King C Y, Zhang W, Zhang Z. 2006. Earthquake-induced groundwater and gas changes[J]. Pure Appl Geophys, 163(4): 633-645. doi: 10.1007/s00024-006-0049-7

    Scholz C H, Sykes L R, Aggarwal Y P. 1973. Earthquake prediction: A physical basis[J]. Science, 181(4102): 803-810. doi: 10.1126/science.181.4102.803

    Toutain J P, Baubron J C. 1999. Gas geochemistry and seismotectonics: A review[J]. Tectonophysics, 304(1/2): 1-27.

    Woith H. 2015. Radon earthquake precursor: A short review[J]. Eur PhysJ Spec Top, 224(4): 611-627. doi: 10.1140/epjst/e2015-02395-9

    Yan R, Wang G C, Shi Z M. 2016. Sensitivity of hydraulic properties to dynamic strain within a fault damage zone[J]. J Hydrol, 543: 721-728. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.10.043

  • 期刊类型引用(10)

    1. 任雪梅,李文君,罗国富. 1970年以来“固原窗”M_L≥3.0地震活动增强现象及震兆意义. 华南地震. 2022(03): 58-64 . 百度学术
    2. 张琳琳,聂晓红. 2021年3月24日拜城M_S5.4地震前拜城地震窗异常分析. 内陆地震. 2022(04): 297-302 . 百度学术
    3. 罗恒之,曾宪伟,卫定军,罗国富,司学芸,李新艳. 2017年内蒙古阿拉善左旗5.0级地震震前异常总结. 地震地磁观测与研究. 2020(05): 183-191 . 百度学术
    4. 张琳琳,敖雪明. 基于Molchan模型的乌恰地震窗预测效能评价. 内陆地震. 2019(01): 8-13 . 百度学术
    5. 钱蕊,王亮,张志宏,杨士超,夏彩韵. 辽宁海城地震窗开窗指标及效能分析. 防灾减灾学报. 2019(03): 84-91 . 百度学术
    6. 张琳琳,敖雪明. 新疆天山地震窗口网的进一步研究. 内陆地震. 2018(01): 33-42 . 百度学术
    7. 王霞,宋美琴. 大同窗地震活动频次和应变能特征. 中国地震. 2017(02): 328-337 . 百度学术
    8. 张琳琳,敖雪明,聂晓红. 2017年精河6.6级、库车5.7级地震前“库米什地震窗”异常特征分析. 中国地震. 2017(04): 721-727 . 百度学术
    9. Li Yutong,Zhang Bo,Wang Liang,Li Tongxia. The Precursory Significance of Cumulative Slip of Repeating Earthquake Sequences Prior to Moderately Strong Earthquakes— A Case Study of Four Remarkable Earthquake Sequences of HaichengXiuyan. Earthquake Research in China. 2016(01): 22-32 . 必应学术
    10. 李宇彤,张博,王亮,李彤霞. 地震序列中重复地震的累积滑动量对后续中强地震的前兆意义——以辽宁海城-岫岩地区4个显著地震序列为例. 中国地震. 2015(02): 235-244 . 百度学术

    其他类型引用(0)

图(9)  /  表(5)
计量
  • 文章访问数:  1295
  • HTML全文浏览量:  652
  • PDF下载量:  91
  • 被引次数: 10
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2017-11-23
  • 修回日期:  2018-03-11
  • 网络出版日期:  2018-09-06
  • 发布日期:  2018-08-31

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回