Seismic finite source and its significance to earthquake early warning system（EEWS）
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摘要: 本文通过多个震例的假定情形，讨论了地震破裂的有限性对地震早期预警系统布局设计的重要意义。分析结果认为，地震早期预警系统对地震减灾所能发挥的作用要远大于传统地震学视角下的预期。该观点深化了目前所认为的预警台站应该适当考虑非均匀布设的认识，强调在发生较大地震时，近断层区域密集布设的预警台站可能会使地震早期预警系统更加有效。Abstract: Finite size of an earthquake rupture, one of the key concepts in modern seismology, has significant implication for the design of an earthquake early warning system （EEWS）. We discussed this issue by scenario earthquake cases, arguing that an EEWS has the potential to make much greater contribution to the reduction of earthquake disasters which is far beyond the expectation in the view of traditional seismology. The discussion deepens the present understanding of the EEWS design which does not aim at a homogeneous deployment, stressing that near-fault denser earthquake early warning station deployment may make the EEWS much more effective during great earthquakes.
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Keywords:
- earthquake early warning /
- seismic finite source /
- blind zone /
- modern seismology
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① 藤绳幸雄。2008。2008年四川省地震での緊急地震速報による災害軽減効果（推定）。个人通信。
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图 1 世界范围内的多次强震在假定预警情形下的震源区走滑、极震区MMI和理论“盲区”空间位置分布。图（c）仅采用了USGS （2004）发布的断层面范围
（a） 2001年秘鲁MW8.4地震；（b） 2003年日本MW8.3地震；（c） 2004年印度尼西亚MW9.1地震；（d） 2005年印度尼西亚MW8.6地震；（e） 2010年智利MW8.0地震；（f） 2011年日本MW9.1地震；（g） 2014年智利MW8.2地震；（h） 2015年智利MW8.3地震
Figure 1. Spatial distribution of rupture slip，maximum intensity of MMI and “blind zone” of scenarios listed in Table 1. Fig. （c） only shows the extent of rupture released by USGS （2004）
（a） MW8.4 Peru earthquake in 2001；（b） MW8.3 Japan earthquake in 2003；（c） MW9.1 Indonesia earthquake in 2004；（d） MW8.6 Indonesia earthquake in 2005；（e） MW8.0 Chile earthquake in 2010；（f） MW9.1 Japan earthquake in 2011；（g） MW8.2 Chile earthquake in 2014；（h） MW8.3 Chile earthquake in 2015
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图 2 2008年汶川MS8.0地震走滑分布、极震区麦卡利烈度和“盲区”分布
Figure 2. Spatial distribution of rupture slip，MMI and “blind zone” of the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake
表 1 2000年1月1日—2017年4月1日世界范围内MW≥8.0地震列表（USGS，2017）
Table 1 The catalog for global earthquakes with MW≥8.0 from January 1，2000 to April 1，2017（USGS，2017）
发震时间（UTC） 地区 纬度 经度 震源
深度/kmMW 盲区
半径/km年−月−日 时:分:秒 2000−11−16 04:54:56 巴布亚新几内亚 3.980°S 152.169°E 33.0 8.0 – 2001−06−23 20:33:14 秘鲁（图 1a） 16.265°S 73.641°W 33.0 8.4 67.8 2003−09−25 19:50:06 日本（图 1b） 41.815°N 143.910°E 27.0 8.3 52.3 2004−12−26 00:58:53 印度尼西亚（图 1c） 3.295°N 95.982°E 30.0 9.1 65.4 2005−03−28 16:09:36 印度尼西亚（图 1d） 2.085°N 97.108°E 30.0 8.6 264.7 2010−02−27 06:34:11 智利（图 1e） 36.122°S 72.898°W 22.9 8.0 35.1 2011−03−11 05:46:24 日本（图 1f） 38.297°N 142.373°E 29.0 9.1 62.4 2014−04−01 23:46:47 智利（图 1g） 19.610°S 70.769°W 25.0 8.2 70.0 2015−09−16 22:54:32 智利（图 1h） 31.573°S 71.674°W 22.4 8.3 80.3 
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