The evaluation method for the accuracy of short-term earthquake prediction
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摘要: 预测效果的科学评价是预测学科必须要解决的问题,对地震预测效果的评价一般分为两种,一种是对单次预测成败的评判,另一种是对方法或手段多次预测效果的统计评分。本文提出了针对单次有震预测是否准确的定量评价方法,即地震预测准确性A值评分法。针对我国地震预测现状,本文约定了准确性评分由预测与实际地震的对应情况(简称“对应度” )和时、空、强预测窗口的精确程度(简称“精确度” )综合决定,同时,还给出了对应度的计算方法和精确度的评价标准。通过对四川省地震局2013年2月上报的短期预测意见进行试算,结果表明该方法具有可行性,可用于短期地震预测意见统一管理的准确性评价。Abstract: Scientific evaluation of prediction effect is a problem that must be solved in prediction discipline. There are two kinds of evaluation of earthquake prediction effect, one is the evaluation of single prediction, the other is the statistical evaluation of multiple prediction effects of a method. This paper presents a quantitative evaluation method for the accuracy of single earthquake prediction, which is called accuracy score method (abbreviated as " A score” ). In view of the present situation of earthquake prediction in China, this paper stipulates that the accuracy score is determined by the corresponding situation between prediction and actual earthquake (abbreviated as " correspondence score” ) and the exactitude of time, space and strong prediction window (abbreviated as" exactitude score” ). This paper also shows the calculation method of correspondence score and exactitude score. The opinions and examples of the short-term prediction reported by Sichuan Earthquake Agency in February 2013 show that this method is scientific and reasonable, and can be used for the evaluation and unified management of short-term earthquake prediction.
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图 1 预测窗口尺度与对应度得分关系示意图
(a) 预测窗口为中等尺度时;(b) 预测窗口为较小尺度时;(c) 预测窗口为较大尺度时
Figure 1. Diagram of the relationship between different predicted window lengths and correspondence score
(a) With medium scale prediction window length;(b) With small scale prediction window length;(c) With large scale prediction window length
图 2 不同时间、空间和震级下的对应度计算结果
(a) 预测时间为1个月、2个月、3个月;(b) 半径为40,100,150,200 km;(c) 震级为5.0,5.5,5.8和6.2
Figure 2. Results of correspondence score of different time,space and magnitude ranges
(a) Time length of one month,two months and three months;(b) Space range of 40,100,150 and 200 km;(c) Magni-tude of MS5.0,MS5.5,MS5.8 and MS6.2
图 3 不同时间、空间和震级精确度取值
(a) 不同预测时间窗口尺度的时间精确度取值;(b) 不同预测震级的空间精确度取值与预测区域半径之间的关系;(c) 不同预测震级范围时的震级精确度取值
Figure 3. Exactitude score of different time,space and magnitude ranges
(a) Time exactitude score of different time length;(b) Space exactitude score of different space ranges in each predicted magnitude;(c) Magnitude exactitude score of different magnitude ranges
图 5 四川地震局短期预测的对应度和精确度计算过程
灰线为本文约定的计算规则,红色线条为本预测意见满足的评分规则,蓝色方框为本预测意见的具体得分
Figure 5. Calculation process of correspondence score and exactitude score of prediction card provided by Sichuan Earthquake Agency
The grey line is the calculation rule in this paper,the red line is the scoring rule satisfied by this prediction card,and the blue box is the score of this prediction card
表 1 举例1试算参数及其准确性评价结果
Table 1 The calculation parameters and its accuracy results of example one
时间参数 空间参数 强度参数 精确度E 对应度C 准确度A 发震时间 时间对
应度Ct时间精
确度Et震中位置 空间对
应度Cs空间精
确度EsM 震级对
应度Cm震级精
确度Em实况1 第25天 1 1 圆形区内 1 1 6.0 1 1 1 1 1 实况2 超出窗
口3天1 1 窗口外
50 km0.91 1 5.3 0.86 1 1 0.78 0.78 实况3 超出窗
口9天0.97 1 窗口外
100 km0.69 1 5.1 0.57 1 1 0.38 0.38 实况4 超出窗
口33天0.65 1 窗口外
120 km0.44 1 4.3 0.04 1 1 0.011 0.011 表 2 举例2试算参数及其准确性评价结果
Table 2 The calculation parameters and its accuracy results of example two
时间参数 空间参数 强度参数 精确度E 对应度C 准确度A 发震时间 时间对
应度Ct时间精
确度Et震中位置 空间对
应度Cs空间精
确度EsM 震级对
应度Cm震级精
确度Em实况1 第75天 1 0.8 圆形区内 1 1 6.0 1 0.6 0.48 1 0.48 实况2 超出窗
口3天0.91 0.8 窗口外
50 km0.7 1 4.8 0.49 0.6 0.48 0.31 0.15 实况3 超出窗
口9天0.44 0.8 窗口外
100 km0.23 1 4.6 0.35 0.6 0.48 0.035 0.017 实况4 超出窗
口25天0.001 0.8 窗口外
170 km0.04 1 4.4 0.05 0.6 0.48 0.000 002 0.000 000 96 -
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