震源机制一致性的显著性检验方法

郭祥云, 陈学忠, 李艳娥, 隗永刚, 陈丽娟

郭祥云, 陈学忠, 李艳娥, 隗永刚, 陈丽娟. 2019: 震源机制一致性的显著性检验方法. 地震学报, 41(6): 709-722. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20190045
引用本文: 郭祥云, 陈学忠, 李艳娥, 隗永刚, 陈丽娟. 2019: 震源机制一致性的显著性检验方法. 地震学报, 41(6): 709-722. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20190045
Guo Xiangyun, Chen Xuezhong, Li Yan’e, Wei Yonggang, Chen Lijuan. 2019: Significance test of focal mechanism consistency:Taking the foreshock sequence of the MS5.4 Xiuyan earthquake on November 29,1999 as an example. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 41(6): 709-722. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20190045
Citation: Guo Xiangyun, Chen Xuezhong, Li Yan’e, Wei Yonggang, Chen Lijuan. 2019: Significance test of focal mechanism consistency:Taking the foreshock sequence of the MS5.4 Xiuyan earthquake on November 29,1999 as an example. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 41(6): 709-722. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20190045

震源机制一致性的显著性检验方法

基金项目: 中国地震局地球物理研究所基本业务专项(DQJB19B10)和国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1503405)共同资助
详细信息
    通讯作者:

    陈学忠: e-mail:cxz8675@163.com

  • 中图分类号: P315.33

Significance test of focal mechanism consistency:Taking the foreshock sequence of the MS5.4 Xiuyan earthquake on November 29,1999 as an example

  • 摘要: 本文提出用四维空间的欧氏距离DFM来表示不同地震震源机制之间的一致性,并以1975年辽宁海城ML7.3地震序列和1999年辽宁岫岩MS5.4地震序列为例分析了主震与前震和余震的震源机制一致性与DFM值之间的关系,其结果显示,当欧氏距离DFM<50时,两次地震的震源机制接近。为了对若干次地震组成的一组地震的震源机制一致性进行判定,引入了显著性检验方法。根据陈颙提出的震源机制一致性参数K,以符号检验法和统计检验量Z值检验法对岫岩MS5.4地震前小震的震源机制一致性进行了分析,其结果表明,在临近岫岩MS5.4地震前所发生地震的震源机制的一致性显著,置信度可达98%。
    Abstract: This paper selected the Euclidean distance DFM to measure the focal mechanism consistency between different earthquakes, and analyzed the relationship between the consistency of focal mechanism and DFM value taking the 1975 ML7.3 Haicheng earthquake sequence and 1999 MS5.4 Xiuyan earthquake sequence as examples. The result shows that when DFM is below 50 the two focal mechanisms become extremely consistent. In order to determine consistency of a number of focal mechanisms the significance test method is drawn into. According to the consistency parameter K proposed by Chen Y, we investigated the consistency of focal mechanism for small earthquakes prior to the MS5.4 Xiuyan earthquake using sign test and Z test. The result suggests that the focal mechanisms of small earthquakes occurred near the MS5.4 Xiuyan main shock are significantly consistent with each other with confidence of 98%. Therefore the method proposed in this paper can be applied to practical earthquake prediction effectively.
  • 图  1   海城ML7.3地震序列的震源机制图像和欧式距离DFM

    Figure  1.   Focal mechanisms and Euclidean distance DFM values of the ML7.3 Haicheng earthquake sequence

    图  1   海城ML7.3地震序列的震源机制图像和欧式距离DFM

    Figure  1.   Focal mechanisms and Euclidean distance DFM values of the ML7.3 Haicheng earthquake sequence

    图  2   岫岩MS5.4地震前小震震源机制解空间分布

    Figure  2.   Spatial distribution of focal mechanisms of small earthquakes occurred prior to the MS5.4 Xiuyan earthquake

    图  3   1999年岫岩MS5.4地震前各次小震的欧式距离DFM值变化

    Figure  3.   Variation of Euclidean distance DFM values of small earthquakes prior to the MS5.4 Xiuyan earthquake in 1999

    图  4   1999年岫岩MS5.4地震前欧式距离DFM平均值随时间的变化

    Figure  4.   Temporal variation of average Euclidean distance DFM value prior to the MS5.4 Xiuyan earthquake in 1999

    图  5   1999年岫岩MS5.4地震前K值(a)和Z值(b)随时间的变化

    水平线分别表示通过α=1%,2%和5%的显著性水平检验的临界值

    Figure  5.   Temporal variation of K value (a) and Z value (b) prior to the MS5.4 Xiuyan earthquake in 1999

    Horizontal lines show the critical values at the significance level α=1%,2% and 5%

    图  6   表3中第41号(a)和第36号(b)地震的震源机制分别作为主震的震源机制所得的岫岩MS5.4地震前K值随时间的变化

    Figure  6.   Temporal variation of K value prior to the MS5.4 Xiuyan earthquake taking the focal mechanism of No.41 (a) and No.36 (b) earthquake in Table 3 as that of the main shock

    表  1   海城ML7.3地震ML≥4.0前震和余震的震源机制(引自顾浩鼎等,1976)及其与主震之间的欧氏距离DFM

    Table  1   Focal mechanisms for ML≥4.0 foreshocks and aftershocks of the ML7.3 Haicheng earthquake (after Gu et al,1976) and their Euclidean distance DFM value

    序号发震时刻地理坐标ML深度
    /km
    节面Ⅰ节面ⅡPTB DFM
      年-月-日 时:分:秒东经/°北纬/°走向/°倾角/°滑动角/°走向/°倾角/°滑动角/°方位角/°俯角/°方位角/°俯角/°方位角/°俯角/°
    11975-02-0407:50:47.0122.7540.674.7171108525.1 1765174.5 6115 1572230064 18.85
    21975-02-0410:35:35.0122.7840.674.3151098622.1 1768175.7 6113 1551829768 15.66
    31975-02-0419:36:06.0122.8040.657.31229081−15.2 2375−170.7 6617.5157 410072.50
    41975-02-0501:01:45.0122.9340.704.410298884.020886178.02522 343 414386 17.67
    51975-02-0502:56:29.0122.8240.674.510112886.0 2284178.0 663 157 631083 14.64
    61975-02-0512:33:00.0122.7740.684.1101266111.522180150.526828 17113 5959 29.52
    71975-02-0523:52:54.0122.6340.704.610125645.621785153.926422 16814 4764 23.77
    81975-02-0605:43:42.0122.9040.625.22329287−2.0 2288−177.0 673 338 023186 15.11
    91975-02-0612:24:57.0122.5040.805.4171628034.625956167.929531 351614954 132.71
    101975-02-0613:56:16.0122.8340.754.01011680−128.9 1440−15.716941 562530438 147.66
    111975-02-0802:30:23.0122.4740.824.01216178−31.826259−166.029338 371814848 131.25
    121975-02-1220:42:46.0122.7840.704.0 714352−118.2 346−58.917168 73 334122 143.64
    131975-02-1521:08:02.0122.7840.705.4121118426.2 1864173.3 6214 1582230363 18.79
    141975-02-1622:01:26.0122.8040.685.311123626.8 3084151.826015 16324 2062 25.26
    151975-02-1818:51:49.0122.6540.774.2171144414.5 1480133.125223 14239 542 38.94
    161975-02-2215:45:14.0122.7340.704.0121138536.2 1954173.8 6021 1622930054 26.42
    171975-02-2405:07:20.0122.8840.784.4 713257−52.925848−132.927860 17 511030 149.77
    181975-02-2504:52:10.0122.6240.734.41413474−4.222686−164.027614 180 8 6274 159.93
    191975-02-2605:09:53.0122.8240.674.3 81219020.021070180.025414 3471412170 16.62
    201975-03-2111:32:59.0122.9540.774.01126072−29.6 062−159.5 3834 132 723156 41.11
    211975-03-2923:16:36.0122.6040.774.1 61118524.1 1966174.5 6313 1582030365 16.92
    221975-04-1003:55:37.0122.4840.724.610118859.0 2781184.92533 1631035780 18.20
    231975-04-2100:17:06.0122.4540.774.0 81098430.2 1660173.1 5917 1572529959 22.14
    241975-07-0407:06:29.0122.6740.724.11013756−19.423974−144.428336 18512 8052 157.73
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2   岫岩MS5.4地震MS≥4.0前震和余震的震源机制解(引自张萍,蒋秀琴,2001)及其与主震之间的欧氏距离DFM

    Table  2   Focal mechanisms for MS≥4.0 foreshocks and aftershocks of the MS5.4 Xiuyan earthquake (after Zhang,Jiang,2001) and their Euclidean distance DFM value

    序号发震日期地理坐标MS深度
    /km
    节面Ⅰ节面ⅡP T B DFM
      年-月-日 时:分:秒东经/°北纬/°走向/°倾角/°滑动角/°走向/°倾角/°滑动角/°方位角/°俯角/°方位角/°俯角/°方位角/°俯角/°
    11999-11-0907:01:40.6123.0340.534.19320707.522883159.8261263581120870159.33
    21999-11-0907:07:21.2123.0240.534.2813780−7.122883−169.9 6218331 3 8477158.79
    31999-11-2520:47:48.5123.0040.554.081374429.5 2770130.0 5625150 8 113839.46
    41999-11-2520:55:4.2123.0040.554.491394230.7 2770127.72711216746 123642.50
    51999-11-2623:34:01.0123.0240.534.491107010.6 2480159.72461515212 466717.00
    61999-11-2912:10:39.2123.0340.535.4929684−20.1 2870−173.6 624119136280700
    71999-11-2912:45:50.4123.0340.535.1930070173.62068420.1 1240262221936811.36
    81999-11-2916:16:47.6123.0340.535.081118020.3 1770169.424820341 83246716.52
    91999-11-3007:52:55.8123.0340.534.091116813.0 1578157.526232162153486524.78
    101999-11-3013:58:17.7123.0340.535.2929180−16.3 2674−169.627015180 2260709.33
    111999-11-3014:06:55.1122.9840.554.982927210.519780161.7 4122133101667018.25
    121999-11-3014:09:36.6123.0240.554.391125811.8 1680147.4 7728350 33575720.22
    131999-11-3020:19:44.2123.0340.534.3929583−20.2 2870−172.529325 3725279704.69
    141999-12-0101:47:1.9123.0340.534.292908010.219880169.8 6722338 61547817.03
    151999-12-0104:33:0.5123.0340.534.491108030.5 1460168.4 428274 03076020.71
    161999-12-0112:45:30.8123.0340.554.392997010.620580159.729014 18 21176816.64
    171999-12-1305:49:30.5123.0840.534.111 1376023.3 3670147.9 7942346 2 85238.18
    181999-12-2719:27:15.4123.0240.534.081127010.6 1980159.7 9130 0 93566614.73
    192000-01-1207:43:55.4123.0540.535.5814680−40.725650−166.9 70253331313950140.51
    202000-01-1213:00:31.9123.0340.554.391128826.0 2064177.826913359 12976210.20
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3   1999年岫岩MS5.4地震前小震震源机制

    Table  3   Focal mechanisms for small earthquakes before the MS5.4 Xiuyan earthquake in 1999

    序号发震日期地理坐标 MS深度
    /km
    节面Ⅰ节面ⅡPTB
      年-月-日 时:分:秒东经/°北纬/°走向/°倾向倾角/°走向/°倾向倾角/°方位角/°俯角/°方位角/°俯角/°方位角/°俯角/°
    11999-01-1503:05:18.6122.6240.65 3.411128WS80 42NW62261263581111059
    21999-01-0605:43:10.9122.8240.65 2.910105NE76 17ES80 6218331 323372
    31999-01-2007:37:43.4122.5340.70 3.212101NE80 13ES70 5625150 825965
    41999-04-0916:31:48.0121.0042.00 3.015138WS52 32ES702711216746 1243
    51999-04-2321:13:38.4122.8240.70 2.9 7107WS70 20NW862461515212 1368
    61999-04-2715:14:14.4124.5741.12 2.813125NE85 40ES30 62411913630430
    71999-04-3021:16:13.3122.8539.68 2.7 5142NE78 60NW42 12402622215239
    81999-05-1112:29:25.9122.7840.65 3.414114WS80 27NW7024820341 8 9068
    91999-05-1501:45:46.6122.2239.38 3.110118WS55 35NW802623216215 5052
    101999-05-2220:40:45.1122.4740.73 3.4 9133WS82 46NW8027015180 2 9378
    111999-05-2415:58:35.1122.2041.70 2.528 86NW80 0NE68 41221331024667
    121999-05-2903:13:30.9121.0042.00 3.321119NE70 34ES72 7728350 325364
    131999-06-0301:46:50.2122.2541.67 3.4 8 75NW64164NE9029325 372516464
    141999-06-0616:51:47.4122.8240.65 2.814110NE70 26ES80 6722338 623166
    151999-08-2112:56:25.9121.7041.25 2.721142NE70 45NW70 428274 018361
    161999-08-3115:11:21.0122.2339.35 2.914153WS80 64NW8029014 18 210875
    171999-09-0605:05:30.3122.6740.70 3.1 6114NE58 41ES64 7942346 225247
    181999-09-2013:22:57.0122.6740.68 2.9 5136NE62 52ES76 9130 0 925658
    191999-10-1007:21:15.5122.9540.65 2.8 9109NE59 24ES80 70253331321956
    201999-10-1216:04:20.3122.1840.48 3.414132WS80 46NW8026913359 1 8774
    211999-11-0414:46:26.9122.6039.27 3.5 7118WS57 14ES7015239252 534850
    221999-11-0903:34:1.3121.5738.52 3.9 9114NE62 22ES902703713937 2225
    231999-11-0908:21:36.2123.0040.53 2.9 8118NE70 32ES80 7720345 724067
    241999-11-0917:44:44.6123.0040.53 3.6 8121NE70 34ES80 8020347 823867
    251999-11-1618:57:48.5123.0040.53 3.0 9110NE90 20ES60 61211612129160
    261999-11-1703:09:31.4123.0040.53 2.7 9112WS70 24NW8224920156 9 4370
    271999-11-1723:59:50.8123.0040.55 2.5 9102WS80 14NW8423911148 4 4677
    281999-11-1808:15:41.2123.0040.53 2.8 9111NE80 29ES50 62371672028048
    291999-11-2100:50:1.9123.0040.55 3.0 8122NE72 40ES70 8128172 226564
    301999-11-2500:59:19.2123.0040.55 3.0 8112NE80 32ES42 60391722528340
    311999-11-2521:17:50.8123.0040.53 3.5 8138NE70 55ES70 9630187 127861
    321999-11-2522:08:12.4123.0040.53 3.2 8147WS76 61NW8028518194 2 9273
    331999-11-2523:19:17.5123.0040.55 3.2 8110WS80 24NW7024620338 6 8467
    341999-11-2603:18:23.3123.0040.55 2.7 9123NE72 39ES70 8027171 126361
    351999-11-2623:36:20.7123.0040.53 3.1 9112NE60 38ES60 7740344 325346
    361999-11-2701:33:26.6123.0040.53 2.6 8148WS80 53ES6819221 99 835065
    371999-11-2702:29:43.7123.0040.55 2.8 8122WS74 38NW6826023350 2 9263
    381999-11-2715:48:2.6123.0040.55 3.2 8118WS80 36NW50250373542010747
    391999-11-2808:15:3.6122.9840.55 3.3 8108NE86 20ES62 60211561727961
    401999-11-2905:56:59.9123.0040.55 3.2 9121NE80 31ES47 61371672028146
    411999-11-2909:25:51.2123.0040.53 2.7 8126NE38 44ES86 99373462922660
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2019-04-11
  • 修回日期:  2019-05-12
  • 网络出版日期:  2019-12-16
  • 发布日期:  2019-10-31

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