Significance test of focal mechanism consistency:Taking the foreshock sequence of the MS5.4 Xiuyan earthquake on November 29,1999 as an example
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摘要: 本文提出用四维空间的欧氏距离DFM来表示不同地震震源机制之间的一致性,并以1975年辽宁海城ML7.3地震序列和1999年辽宁岫岩MS5.4地震序列为例分析了主震与前震和余震的震源机制一致性与DFM值之间的关系,其结果显示,当欧氏距离DFM<50时,两次地震的震源机制接近。为了对若干次地震组成的一组地震的震源机制一致性进行判定,引入了显著性检验方法。根据陈颙提出的震源机制一致性参数K,以符号检验法和统计检验量Z值检验法对岫岩MS5.4地震前小震的震源机制一致性进行了分析,其结果表明,在临近岫岩MS5.4地震前所发生地震的震源机制的一致性显著,置信度可达98%。
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关键词:
- 震源机制 /
- 一致性 /
- 显著性检验 /
- 1999年岫岩MS5.4地震
Abstract: This paper selected the Euclidean distance DFM to measure the focal mechanism consistency between different earthquakes, and analyzed the relationship between the consistency of focal mechanism and DFM value taking the 1975 ML7.3 Haicheng earthquake sequence and 1999 MS5.4 Xiuyan earthquake sequence as examples. The result shows that when DFM is below 50 the two focal mechanisms become extremely consistent. In order to determine consistency of a number of focal mechanisms the significance test method is drawn into. According to the consistency parameter K proposed by Chen Y, we investigated the consistency of focal mechanism for small earthquakes prior to the MS5.4 Xiuyan earthquake using sign test and Z test. The result suggests that the focal mechanisms of small earthquakes occurred near the MS5.4 Xiuyan main shock are significantly consistent with each other with confidence of 98%. Therefore the method proposed in this paper can be applied to practical earthquake prediction effectively.-
Keywords:
- mechanism /
- consistency /
- significance test /
- MS5.4 Xiuyan earthquake in 1999
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表 1 海城ML7.3地震ML≥4.0前震和余震的震源机制(引自顾浩鼎等,1976)及其与主震之间的欧氏距离DFM值
Table 1 Focal mechanisms for ML≥4.0 foreshocks and aftershocks of the ML7.3 Haicheng earthquake (after Gu et al,1976) and their Euclidean distance DFM value
序号 发震时刻 地理坐标 ML 深度
/km节面Ⅰ 节面Ⅱ P 轴 T 轴 B 轴 DFM 年-月-日 时:分:秒 东经/° 北纬/° 走向/° 倾角/° 滑动角/° 走向/° 倾角/° 滑动角/° 方位角/° 俯角/° 方位角/° 俯角/° 方位角/° 俯角/° 1 1975-02-04 07:50:47.0 122.75 40.67 4.7 17 110 85 25.1 17 65 174.5 61 15 157 22 300 64 18.85 2 1975-02-04 10:35:35.0 122.78 40.67 4.3 15 109 86 22.1 17 68 175.7 61 13 155 18 297 68 15.66 3 1975-02-04 19:36:06.0 122.80 40.65 7.3 12 290 81 −15.2 23 75 −170.7 66 17.5 157 4 100 72.5 0 4 1975-02-05 01:01:45.0 122.93 40.70 4.4 10 298 88 4.0 208 86 178.0 252 2 343 4 143 86 17.67 5 1975-02-05 02:56:29.0 122.82 40.67 4.5 10 112 88 6.0 22 84 178.0 66 3 157 6 310 83 14.64 6 1975-02-05 12:33:00.0 122.77 40.68 4.1 10 126 61 11.5 221 80 150.5 268 28 171 13 59 59 29.52 7 1975-02-05 23:52:54.0 122.63 40.70 4.6 10 125 64 5.6 217 85 153.9 264 22 168 14 47 64 23.77 8 1975-02-06 05:43:42.0 122.90 40.62 5.2 23 292 87 −2.0 22 88 −177.0 67 3 338 0 231 86 15.11 9 1975-02-06 12:24:57.0 122.50 40.80 5.4 17 162 80 34.6 259 56 167.9 295 31 35 16 149 54 132.71 10 1975-02-06 13:56:16.0 122.83 40.75 4.0 10 116 80 −128.9 14 40 −15.7 169 41 56 25 304 38 147.66 11 1975-02-08 02:30:23.0 122.47 40.82 4.0 12 161 78 −31.8 262 59 −166.0 293 38 37 18 148 48 131.25 12 1975-02-12 20:42:46.0 122.78 40.70 4.0 7 143 52 −118.2 3 46 −58.9 171 68 73 3 341 22 143.64 13 1975-02-15 21:08:02.0 122.78 40.70 5.4 12 111 84 26.2 18 64 173.3 62 14 158 22 303 63 18.79 14 1975-02-16 22:01:26.0 122.80 40.68 5.3 11 123 62 6.8 30 84 151.8 260 15 163 24 20 62 25.26 15 1975-02-18 18:51:49.0 122.65 40.77 4.2 17 114 44 14.5 14 80 133.1 252 23 142 39 5 42 38.94 16 1975-02-22 15:45:14.0 122.73 40.70 4.0 12 113 85 36.2 19 54 173.8 60 21 162 29 300 54 26.42 17 1975-02-24 05:07:20.0 122.88 40.78 4.4 7 132 57 −52.9 258 48 −132.9 278 60 17 5 110 30 149.77 18 1975-02-25 04:52:10.0 122.62 40.73 4.4 14 134 74 −4.2 226 86 −164.0 276 14 180 8 62 74 159.93 19 1975-02-26 05:09:53.0 122.82 40.67 4.3 8 121 90 20.0 210 70 180.0 254 14 347 14 121 70 16.62 20 1975-03-21 11:32:59.0 122.95 40.77 4.0 11 260 72 −29.6 0 62 −159.5 38 34 132 7 231 56 41.11 21 1975-03-29 23:16:36.0 122.60 40.77 4.1 6 111 85 24.1 19 66 174.5 63 13 158 20 303 65 16.92 22 1975-04-10 03:55:37.0 122.48 40.72 4.6 10 118 85 9.0 27 81 184.9 253 3 163 10 357 80 18.20 23 1975-04-21 00:17:06.0 122.45 40.77 4.0 8 109 84 30.2 16 60 173.1 59 17 157 25 299 59 22.14 24 1975-07-04 07:06:29.0 122.67 40.72 4.1 10 137 56 −19.4 239 74 −144.4 283 36 185 12 80 52 157.73 表 2 岫岩MS5.4地震MS≥4.0前震和余震的震源机制解(引自张萍,蒋秀琴,2001)及其与主震之间的欧氏距离DFM值
Table 2 Focal mechanisms for MS≥4.0 foreshocks and aftershocks of the MS5.4 Xiuyan earthquake (after Zhang,Jiang,2001) and their Euclidean distance DFM value
序号 发震日期 地理坐标 MS 深度
/km节面Ⅰ 节面Ⅱ P 轴 T 轴 B 轴 DFM 年-月-日 时:分:秒 东经/° 北纬/° 走向/° 倾角/° 滑动角/° 走向/° 倾角/° 滑动角/° 方位角/° 俯角/° 方位角/° 俯角/° 方位角/° 俯角/° 1 1999-11-09 07:01:40.6 123.03 40.53 4.1 9 320 70 7.5 228 83 159.8 261 26 358 11 208 70 159.33 2 1999-11-09 07:07:21.2 123.02 40.53 4.2 8 137 80 −7.1 228 83 −169.9 62 18 331 3 84 77 158.79 3 1999-11-25 20:47:48.5 123.00 40.55 4.0 8 137 44 29.5 27 70 130.0 56 25 150 8 11 38 39.46 4 1999-11-25 20:55:4.2 123.00 40.55 4.4 9 139 42 30.7 27 70 127.7 271 12 167 46 12 36 42.50 5 1999-11-26 23:34:01.0 123.02 40.53 4.4 9 110 70 10.6 24 80 159.7 246 15 152 12 46 67 17.00 6 1999-11-29 12:10:39.2 123.03 40.53 5.4 9 296 84 −20.1 28 70 −173.6 62 41 191 36 280 70 0 7 1999-11-29 12:45:50.4 123.03 40.53 5.1 9 300 70 173.6 206 84 20.1 12 40 262 22 193 68 11.36 8 1999-11-29 16:16:47.6 123.03 40.53 5.0 8 111 80 20.3 17 70 169.4 248 20 341 8 324 67 16.52 9 1999-11-30 07:52:55.8 123.03 40.53 4.0 9 111 68 13.0 15 78 157.5 262 32 162 15 348 65 24.78 10 1999-11-30 13:58:17.7 123.03 40.53 5.2 9 291 80 −16.3 26 74 −169.6 270 15 180 2 260 70 9.33 11 1999-11-30 14:06:55.1 122.98 40.55 4.9 8 292 72 10.5 197 80 161.7 41 22 133 10 166 70 18.25 12 1999-11-30 14:09:36.6 123.02 40.55 4.3 9 112 58 11.8 16 80 147.4 77 28 350 3 357 57 20.22 13 1999-11-30 20:19:44.2 123.03 40.53 4.3 9 295 83 −20.2 28 70 −172.5 293 25 37 25 279 70 4.69 14 1999-12-01 01:47:1.9 123.03 40.53 4.2 9 290 80 10.2 198 80 169.8 67 22 338 6 154 78 17.03 15 1999-12-01 04:33:0.5 123.03 40.53 4.4 9 110 80 30.5 14 60 168.4 4 28 274 0 307 60 20.71 16 1999-12-01 12:45:30.8 123.03 40.55 4.3 9 299 70 10.6 205 80 159.7 290 14 18 2 117 68 16.64 17 1999-12-13 05:49:30.5 123.08 40.53 4.1 11 137 60 23.3 36 70 147.9 79 42 346 2 8 52 38.18 18 1999-12-27 19:27:15.4 123.02 40.53 4.0 8 112 70 10.6 19 80 159.7 91 30 0 9 356 66 14.73 19 2000-01-12 07:43:55.4 123.05 40.53 5.5 8 146 80 −40.7 256 50 −166.9 70 25 333 13 139 50 140.51 20 2000-01-12 13:00:31.9 123.03 40.55 4.3 9 112 88 26.0 20 64 177.8 269 13 359 1 297 62 10.20 表 3 1999年岫岩MS5.4地震前小震震源机制
Table 3 Focal mechanisms for small earthquakes before the MS5.4 Xiuyan earthquake in 1999
序号 发震日期 地理坐标 MS 深度
/km节面Ⅰ 节面Ⅱ P 轴 T 轴 B 轴 年-月-日 时:分:秒 东经/° 北纬/° 走向/° 倾向 倾角/° 走向/° 倾向 倾角/° 方位角/° 俯角/° 方位角/° 俯角/° 方位角/° 俯角/° 1 1999-01-15 03:05:18.6 122.62 40.65 3.4 11 128 WS 80 42 NW 62 261 26 358 11 110 59 2 1999-01-06 05:43:10.9 122.82 40.65 2.9 10 105 NE 76 17 ES 80 62 18 331 3 233 72 3 1999-01-20 07:37:43.4 122.53 40.70 3.2 12 101 NE 80 13 ES 70 56 25 150 8 259 65 4 1999-04-09 16:31:48.0 121.00 42.00 3.0 15 138 WS 52 32 ES 70 271 12 167 46 12 43 5 1999-04-23 21:13:38.4 122.82 40.70 2.9 7 107 WS 70 20 NW 86 246 15 152 12 13 68 6 1999-04-27 15:14:14.4 124.57 41.12 2.8 13 125 NE 85 40 ES 30 62 41 191 36 304 30 7 1999-04-30 21:16:13.3 122.85 39.68 2.7 5 142 NE 78 60 NW 42 12 40 262 22 152 39 8 1999-05-11 12:29:25.9 122.78 40.65 3.4 14 114 WS 80 27 NW 70 248 20 341 8 90 68 9 1999-05-15 01:45:46.6 122.22 39.38 3.1 10 118 WS 55 35 NW 80 262 32 162 15 50 52 10 1999-05-22 20:40:45.1 122.47 40.73 3.4 9 133 WS 82 46 NW 80 270 15 180 2 93 78 11 1999-05-24 15:58:35.1 122.20 41.70 2.5 28 86 NW 80 0 NE 68 41 22 133 10 246 67 12 1999-05-29 03:13:30.9 121.00 42.00 3.3 21 119 NE 70 34 ES 72 77 28 350 3 253 64 13 1999-06-03 01:46:50.2 122.25 41.67 3.4 8 75 NW 64 164 NE 90 293 25 37 25 164 64 14 1999-06-06 16:51:47.4 122.82 40.65 2.8 14 110 NE 70 26 ES 80 67 22 338 6 231 66 15 1999-08-21 12:56:25.9 121.70 41.25 2.7 21 142 NE 70 45 NW 70 4 28 274 0 183 61 16 1999-08-31 15:11:21.0 122.23 39.35 2.9 14 153 WS 80 64 NW 80 290 14 18 2 108 75 17 1999-09-06 05:05:30.3 122.67 40.70 3.1 6 114 NE 58 41 ES 64 79 42 346 2 252 47 18 1999-09-20 13:22:57.0 122.67 40.68 2.9 5 136 NE 62 52 ES 76 91 30 0 9 256 58 19 1999-10-10 07:21:15.5 122.95 40.65 2.8 9 109 NE 59 24 ES 80 70 25 333 13 219 56 20 1999-10-12 16:04:20.3 122.18 40.48 3.4 14 132 WS 80 46 NW 80 269 13 359 1 87 74 21 1999-11-04 14:46:26.9 122.60 39.27 3.5 7 118 WS 57 14 ES 70 152 39 252 5 348 50 22 1999-11-09 03:34:1.3 121.57 38.52 3.9 9 114 NE 62 22 ES 90 270 37 139 37 22 25 23 1999-11-09 08:21:36.2 123.00 40.53 2.9 8 118 NE 70 32 ES 80 77 20 345 7 240 67 24 1999-11-09 17:44:44.6 123.00 40.53 3.6 8 121 NE 70 34 ES 80 80 20 347 8 238 67 25 1999-11-16 18:57:48.5 123.00 40.53 3.0 9 110 NE 90 20 ES 60 61 21 161 21 291 60 26 1999-11-17 03:09:31.4 123.00 40.53 2.7 9 112 WS 70 24 NW 82 249 20 156 9 43 70 27 1999-11-17 23:59:50.8 123.00 40.55 2.5 9 102 WS 80 14 NW 84 239 11 148 4 46 77 28 1999-11-18 08:15:41.2 123.00 40.53 2.8 9 111 NE 80 29 ES 50 62 37 167 20 280 48 29 1999-11-21 00:50:1.9 123.00 40.55 3.0 8 122 NE 72 40 ES 70 81 28 172 2 265 64 30 1999-11-25 00:59:19.2 123.00 40.55 3.0 8 112 NE 80 32 ES 42 60 39 172 25 283 40 31 1999-11-25 21:17:50.8 123.00 40.53 3.5 8 138 NE 70 55 ES 70 96 30 187 1 278 61 32 1999-11-25 22:08:12.4 123.00 40.53 3.2 8 147 WS 76 61 NW 80 285 18 194 2 92 73 33 1999-11-25 23:19:17.5 123.00 40.55 3.2 8 110 WS 80 24 NW 70 246 20 338 6 84 67 34 1999-11-26 03:18:23.3 123.00 40.55 2.7 9 123 NE 72 39 ES 70 80 27 171 1 263 61 35 1999-11-26 23:36:20.7 123.00 40.53 3.1 9 112 NE 60 38 ES 60 77 40 344 3 253 46 36 1999-11-27 01:33:26.6 123.00 40.53 2.6 8 148 WS 80 53 ES 68 192 21 99 8 350 65 37 1999-11-27 02:29:43.7 123.00 40.55 2.8 8 122 WS 74 38 NW 68 260 23 350 2 92 63 38 1999-11-27 15:48:2.6 123.00 40.55 3.2 8 118 WS 80 36 NW 50 250 37 354 20 107 47 39 1999-11-28 08:15:3.6 122.98 40.55 3.3 8 108 NE 86 20 ES 62 60 21 156 17 279 61 40 1999-11-29 05:56:59.9 123.00 40.55 3.2 9 121 NE 80 31 ES 47 61 37 167 20 281 46 41 1999-11-29 09:25:51.2 123.00 40.53 2.7 8 126 NE 38 44 ES 86 99 37 346 29 226 60 -
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