Extraction and analysis of seismic thermal anomalies in Xinjiang based on robust satellite techniques
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摘要:
为探究地震活跃区域内地震与热异常的关联性，本文选取2014—2018年新疆地区发生的MS≥4.0地震作为研究对象，利用卫星数据稳健分析技术从MODIS地表温度数据中提取出热异常，并结合热异常特点及筛选方法分析得出：研究区内提取出热异常84次，发生在热异常窗口期内的地震39次，占比46.43%。地震与热异常的对应关系表现为，随着地震震级增大，通过热异常检测到的地震所占比例逐渐增大。当MS≥5.8时，研究区的地震发生均与热异常相关，当地震震级相同时，塔里木盆地中线以北区域的相关性高于以南地区，通过Molchan误差图表分析得出，MS5.0对应预警距离作为阈值的检测效果较好。
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关键词:
- 地震 /
- 热异常 /
- 卫星数据稳健分析技术（RST） /
- 统计分析 /
- 地表温度（LST）
Abstract:In order to investigate the correlation between earthquake field and thermal anomalies in seismically active areas, this paper selects the main earthquakes that occurred in Xinjiang from 2014 to 2018 as the research object, and uses the MODIS land surface temperature data to extract thermal anomalies by the robust satellite techniques. The screening method analysis shows that 84 thermal anomalies were extracted in the studied area, 39 earthquakes occurred during the thermal anomaly window period, accounting for 46.43%. The corresponding relationship between the earthquakes and thermal anomalies in the studied area is shown as that the proportion of earthquakes detected by thermal anomalies gradually increases with the magni-tude of the earthquake increasing. When the MS≥5.8, the earthquakes in the studied area are related to thermal anomalies. When the magnitude of the earthquakes is the same, the earthquakes to the north of the central line of the Tarim basin and the correlation of thermal anomalies is higher than those to the south. Through the analysis of Molchan’s error chart, it is found that the detection effect with the magnitude of MS5.0 corresponding to the early warning distance as a threshold is better.
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图 1 2014—2018年新疆及周边地区MS≥4.0地震分布
Figure 1. Distribution of MS≥4.0 earthquakes in Xinjiang and its surrounding regions in 2014−2018
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图 2 地震震中与热异常空间分布
（a） 热异常与地震不相关；（b） 热异常与地震相关
Figure 2. Spatial distribution of thermal anomaly and location of the epicenter
（a） Thermal anomalies are not related to the earthquake；（b） Thermal anomalies are related to the earthquake
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图 3 新疆地区2018年10月8日（a）和2018年10月9日（b）热异常与相关地震示意图
Figure 3. Schematic diagrams of thermal anomalies and related earthquakes in Xinjiang on October 8 （a） and 9 （b），2018
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图 4 新疆地区2014—2018年地震发生时间与热异常统计
Figure 4. Statistics of earthquake occurrence time and thermal anomalies in Xinjiang from 2014 to 2018
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图 5 热异常与地震震级相关统计分析
（a） TP1与FP对比；（b） TP2与FN对比；（c） TPR与PPV对比；（d） 塔里木盆地北侧 （TPR_N）与南侧（TPR_S）TPR对比
Figure 5. Statistical analysis of thermal anomalies and earthquake magnitudes
（a） Comparison of TP1 and FP；（b） Comparison of TP2 and FN；（c） Comparison of TPR and PPV；（d） Comparison of TPR on the north （TPR_N） and south （TPR_S） parts of Tarim basin
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图 6 2014—2018年新疆地区地震Molchan误差图表
Figure 6. Molchan error chart of earthquakes inXinjiang region in 2014−2018
表 1 2014—2018年新疆及周边地区MS≥4.0地震分布
Table 1 Distribution of MS≥4.0 earthquakes in Xinjiang and its surrounding regions from 2014 to 2018
年份 4.0≤MS<5.0 MS≥5.0 总计 2014 36 7 43 2015 50 8 58 2016 39 8 47 2017 32 3 35 2018 68 63 5 
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表 2 塔里木盆地北侧与南侧不同震级与热异常的相关性统计
Table 2 Statistics on the earthquakes with different magnitudes and thermal anomalies for the north and south parts of the Tarim basin
塔里木盆地北侧区域 塔里木盆地南侧区域 FN TP2 TPR FN TP2 TPR MS≥4.0 99 28 22.05% 106 18 14.52% MS≥5.0 7 13 65.00% 7 5 42.67% MS≥6.0 0 5 100% 0 2 100%
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