基于卫星数据稳健分析技术统计分析新疆地区热异常与地震的关系

Extraction and analysis of seismic thermal anomalies in Xinjiang based on robust satellite techniques

  • 摘要: 为探究地震活跃区域内地震与热异常的关联性,本文选取2014—2018年新疆地区发生的MS≥4.0地震作为研究对象,利用卫星数据稳健分析技术从MODIS地表温度数据中提取出热异常,并结合热异常特点及筛选方法分析得出:研究区内提取出热异常84次,发生在热异常窗口期内的地震39次,占比46.43%。地震与热异常的对应关系表现为,随着地震震级增大,通过热异常检测到的地震所占比例逐渐增大。当MS≥5.8时,研究区的地震发生均与热异常相关,当地震震级相同时,塔里木盆地中线以北区域的相关性高于以南地区,通过Molchan误差图表分析得出,MS5.0对应预警距离作为阈值的检测效果较好。

     

    Abstract: In order to investigate the correlation between earthquake field and thermal anomalies in seismically active areas, this paper selects the main earthquakes that occurred in Xinjiang from 2014 to 2018 as the research object, and uses the MODIS land surface temperature data to extract thermal anomalies by the robust satellite techniques. The screening method analysis shows that 84 thermal anomalies were extracted in the studied area, 39 earthquakes occurred during the thermal anomaly window period, accounting for 46.43%. The corresponding relationship between the earthquakes and thermal anomalies in the studied area is shown as that the proportion of earthquakes detected by thermal anomalies gradually increases with the magni-tude of the earthquake increasing. When the MS≥5.8, the earthquakes in the studied area are related to thermal anomalies. When the magnitude of the earthquakes is the same, the earthquakes to the north of the central line of the Tarim basin and the correlation of thermal anomalies is higher than those to the south. Through the analysis of Molchan’s error chart, it is found that the detection effect with the magnitude of MS5.0 corresponding to the early warning distance as a threshold is better.

     

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