青藏高原东北缘地震活动性广义帕累托模型的全域敏感性分析

Global sensitivity analysis of the generalized Pareto distribution model for seismicity in the northeast Tibetan

  • 摘要: 基于广义帕累托分布构建地震活动性模型,因其输入参数取值难以避免不确定性,导致依据该模型所得的地震危险性估计结果具有不确定性。鉴于此,本文选取青藏高原东北缘为研究区,提出了基于全域敏感性分析的地震危险性估计的不确定性分析流程和方法。首先,利用地震活动性广义帕累托模型,进行研究区地震危险性估计;然后,选取地震记录的起始时间和震级阈值作为地震活动性模型的输入参数,采用具有全域敏感性分析功能的E-FAST方法,对上述两个参数的不确定性以及两参数之间的相互作用对地震危险性估计不确定性的影响进行定量分析。结果表明:地震危险性估计结果(不同重现期的震级重现水平、震级上限及相应的置信区间)对两个输入参数中的震级阈值更为敏感;不同重现期的地震危险性估计结果对震级阈值的敏感程度不同;对不同的重现期而言,在影响地震危险性估计结果的不确定性上,两个输入参数之间存在非线性效应,且非线性效应程度不同。本文提出的不确定性分析流程和方法,可以推广应用于基于其它类型地震活动性模型的地震危险性估计不确定性分析。

     

    Abstract: Because the selected values of input parameters of generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) model are difficult to avoid uncertainty, the input parameters uncertainty of this model may lead to uncertainty in the seismic hazard estimation. In this paper, we selected northeastern Tibetan Plateau as the case studied area, and proposed an uncertainty analysis process and method of seismic hazard estimation based on the global sensitivity analysis. First, we used the GPD seismicity model to obtain the results of seismic hazard estimation. And then, we selected starting time of earthquake catalog and magnitude threshold to be the input parameters of seismicity model. The E-FAST method with global sensitivity analysis function was used to quantitatively analyze the influence of the uncertainties of the two parameters and the interaction between the two parameters on the uncertainty of seismic hazard estimation. The results show that the seismic hazard estimation of the GPD model is more sensitive to the magnitude threshold. With different return periods, the sensitivity degree of seismic hazard estimation to magnitude threshold is different. For different return periods, there are nonlinear effects between the two input parameters on the uncertainty of seismic hazard estimation, and the degree of nonlinear effects is different. The uncertainty analysis process and method proposed in this paper can be applied to the uncertainty analysis of seismic hazard estimation based on other seismicity models.

     

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