A new exploration of the risk assessment method of earthquake disasters in urban agglomerations：Taking the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as an example
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摘要: 基于粤港澳大湾区地震灾害风险评估的初步成果，分析了湾区城市群地震环境、承灾体分布和场地特点，提出了两种确定地震输入的设定地震原则，即潜在震源区设定地震原则和最大风险设定地震原则，按照这两种原则可以更加准确地进行城市群地震灾害风险评估。在前人工作的基础上，提出了考虑场地条件影响的地震灾害风险表达式，探索了适合三维模拟非一致激励地震动输入的建筑物和生命线工程灾害风险评估方法，提出了建筑物和生命线工程灾害风险评估中考虑场地影响的思路，为客观地评估城市群地震灾害和损失风险提出了可参考的建议。Abstract: Based on the preliminary research results of earthquake disaster risk assessment in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the earthquake environment, distribution of disaster-bearing bodies and site characteristics of urban agglomerations in the bay area are analyzed, and two scenario earthquake principles for determining the earthquake input are proposed, namely, setting earthquakes in potential source areas principle and maximum risk setting seismic principle, which can make risk assessment of earthquake disasters in urban agglomerations more accurate. On the basis of previous studies, the expression of earthquake disaster risk considering the influence of site conditions is proposed. The disaster risk assessment method of buildings and lifeline engineering suitable for 3D simulation of seismic input within non-uniform excitation is explored, and the idea of considering the influence of site in the disaster risk assessment of buildings and lifeline engineering is proposed. Some valuable suggestions are put forward to objectively evaluate the earthquake disaster and loss risk of urban agglomeration.
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图 1 粤港澳大湾区城市群分布图
Figure 1. Distribution of urban agglomerations in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
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图 2 深圳市（左）和珠海市（右）的建（构）筑物空间分布示意图
Figure 2. Schematic diagram of the spatial distribution of buildings in Shenzhen （left） and Zhuhai （right）
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图 3 广州道路（a）和珠海市供水管网（b）的空间分布示意图
Figure 3. Spatial distribution of Guangzhou roads （a） and Zhuhai water supply pipe networks （b）
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图 4 粤港澳大湾区（近似于红框内）场地工程地质分区概要图
Figure 4. Outline map of engineering geological zoning of sites in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area （approximately denoted by the red box）
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图 5 粤港澳大湾区地震构造图（a）和周边高震级潜在震源区分布图（b）
F1：吴川—四会断裂；F2：白泥—沙湾断裂带；F3：广从断裂；F4：河源—邵武断裂带；F5：莲花山断裂带；F6：西江断裂；F7：滨海断裂带
Figure 5. Seismic tectonic settings of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area （a） and distribution of its surrounding potential earthquake source areas with high magnitude （b）
F1：Wuchuan-Sihui fault；F2：Baini-Shawan fault zone；F3：Guangcong fault；F4：Heyuan-Shaowu fault zone；F5：Lianhuashan fault zone；F6：Xijiang fault；F7：Binhai fault zone
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图 6 城市A设定极罕遇地震作用（一致激励）下的建筑群损伤示意图
Figure 6. Schematic diagram of building damage under the extremely rare seismic effect （consistent excitation） of city A
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图 7 城市B基于衰减关系的地震动影响场（a）及非一致地震激励下的建筑群损伤（b）示意图
Figure 7. Schematic diagrams of the seismic influence field of the city B based on the attenuation relationship （a） and building group damage under non-uniform earthquake excitation （b）
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