基于混沌理论、变分模态分解和长短期记忆网络的地磁变化预测方法

A geomagnetic variation prediction method based on chaotic VMD-LSTM neural network

  • 摘要: 针对地磁变化场的非平稳性、非线性以及物理模型难以预测的特点,提出了一种改进的长短期记忆网络预测方法并进行了验证。首先应用变分模态分解方法对地磁台站数据进行去噪,再根据地磁变化的混沌特性引入混沌理论对样本集进行优化,最终以长短期记忆网络预测地磁变化并对改进前后的方法进行了对比。结果显示,优化方法的预测效果较稳定,平均绝对误差小于2 nT,相关指数R2超过0.8,预测值与实测值的拟合度较高,有效预测时长可达2.5天,且在中国大陆的泛用性较好。

     

    Abstract: In view of the nonstationarity and nonlinearity of geomagnetic variation field and the difficulty of physical model prediction, an improved LSTM (long short-term memory) neural network prediction method is proposed and verified by tests. Firstly, the variational mode decomposition (VMD) method is used to denoise the geomagnetic data, and then the chaos theory is introduced to optimize the sample set according to the chaotic characteristics of geomagnetic variation. Finally, the LSTM network is used to predict geomagnetic variation. The results show that the prediction of the optimized method is relatively stable, mean absolute error is less than 2 nT, correlative coefficient R2 is larger than 0.8, the predicted value is well consistent with the measured value, and the effective prediction time can reach 2.5 days, and it has good universality in Chinese Mainland.

     

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