Analysis of strong earthquake activity characteristics in Taiwan
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摘要:
基于定性分析和Morlet小波分析方法，研究了我国台湾地区的主要构造带和强震分布特征。1900年以来台湾地区MS≥7.0地震存在三个活跃时段：第一个活跃时段为1902—1925年，长达近23年；第二个活跃时段为1935—1978年，约43年；第三个活跃时段为1986—2006年，时长20年。台湾自2006年12月26日恒春海域发生MS7.2地震之后，MS≥7.0地震平静已近16年，为历史最长平静时段，存在开始新的活跃时段的可能。从区域分布看，台东地震带MS≥6.9地震具有六个活动周期，大部分活动周期平均约为16年，每个活动周期均包含活跃和平静时段，所有MS≥6.9地震均发生在活跃时段，统计显示台东地震带的活动强度自2002年进入第六个活动周期后逐渐减弱，直到2022年9月份台湾东带才再次发生MS6.9地震，可能进入了新一轮活跃时段。台湾西带MS≥6.0地震存在92年左右和14年左右的周期，1901—1993年为一个活跃-平静大周期（92年左右），1994年开始新一轮的大周期活动，同时，大周期又包含平均周期为14年左右的小周期。临近预报（nowcasting）方法计算的小震积累水平显示，台湾东带MS≥7.0地震和台湾西带MS≥6.0地震具有较高的发震背景概率，台湾地区强震在年尺度上与华南地区中强地震具有一定的对应关系。
Abstract:Based on qualitative analysis and Morlet wavelet method, the distribution characteristics of the main tectonic zones and strong earthquakes in Taiwan, China are studied. The Taiwan, China can be divided into the Taidong seismic zone and the Taixi seismic zone, bounded by the Central Mountains. The former is mainly composed of the Huadong longitudinal valley fault, the coastal mountains and the sea area to the east of the coastal mountains. It is the region with the strongest seismic activity in Taiwan. The latter seismic zone mainly includes the western foothills and the western coastal plain. In addition, due to the influence of the Philippine Sea Plate pushing the Eurasian Plate towards the northwest, most earthquakes in Taiwan and surrounding waters are thrust-type earthquakes. There have been three active periods of MS≥7.0 earthquakes in Taiwan since 1900. The first active period was from 1902 to 1925, which lasted nearly 23 years; the second was from 1935 to 1978, about 43 years; the third was from 1986 to 2006, lasting 20 years. Since the Hengchun sea area MS7.2 earthquake in Taiwan on December 26, 2006, Taiwan earthquakes above MS7.0 have been quiet for nearly 16 years, which is the longest quiet time in history, and there is a possibility of a new active period. From the regional distribution perspective, MS≥6.9 earthquakes in the eastern Taiwan had six active cycles, most of which lasted about 16 years on average. Each active cycle included active and quiet periods, and all MS≥6.9 earthquakes occurred in active periods. Statistics show that the activity intensity of the eastern Taiwan had gradually weakened since 2002, when it entered the sixth active cycle. A new active period may have started since the Hualian MS6.9 earthquake occurred in the eastern Taiwan on September of 2022. At the same time, the Morlet wavelet method was used to calculate the period spectrum of seismic activity of the Taidong seismic zone and the significance testing. The results showed that the 3-year and 16-year periods in the region passed the 80% confidence testing, and the 16-year period could better reflect the average duration of most seismic periodic activities in the Taidong seismic zone. The 3-year period was consistent with the average occurrence interval of MS≥7.0 earthquakes with every three years in the Taidong seismic belt from 1900 to 2006. As for the western Taiwan, MS≥6.0 earthquakes have cycles of about 92 years and 14 years which passed the 80% confidence testing. 1901−1993 was a large active-quiet cycle （about 92 years） and a new round of large cycle activity began from 1994. At the same time, the large cycle also included some small cycles with an average period of 14 years. At present, the Taixi seismic belt is in the quiet period of the small cycle of 2010 to 2022. Based on the average duration of the small cycle of about 14 years, the Taixi seismic belt maybe enter a new round of the small cycle activity of MS≥6.0 earthquake in the future. From the perspective of focal depth, the focal depth of earthquakes in Taiwan has the characteristic of gradually deepening from west to east. Among them, earthquakes in the northeast of Taiwan and nearby waters are mainly of medium to deep source earthquakes, while earthquakes in the waters of the central Taiwan are mostly distributed within the range of 20−40 kilometers, mainly located in the waters near Hualien. The distribution characteristics of source depth are consistent with the eastward dipping characteristic of the Huadong longitudinal valley fault in the region. The accumulation level of small earthquakes calculated by the Nowcasting method also shows that the MS≥7.0 earthquakes in the eastern zone of Taiwan and MS≥6.0 earthquakes in the western zone of Taiwan have a high background probability of earthquake occurrence, and the strong earthquakes in Taiwan have a certain corresponding relationship with the moderate-strong earthquakes in South China on an annual scale.
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Keywords:
- Taiwan /
- seismicity characteristics /
- activity cycle /
- nowcasting method
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图 3 台东地震带1900年以来的周期谱分析
（a） MS≥6.0地震小波功率谱；（b） MS≥6.0地震显著周期谱，红色虚线为90%置信度检验曲线，绿色虚线为80%置信度检验曲线；（c） MS≥6.9地震应变曲线
Figure 3. Periodic spectrum analysis of eastern Taiwan from 1900
（a） Wavelet power spectrum of MS≥6.0 earthquakes；（b） Significant periodic spectrum of MS≥6.0 earthquakes，the red dotted line represents for confidence test curve with 90 percent and the green dotted line for 80 percent；（c） Benioff strain curve of MS≥6.9 earthquakes
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图 1 1976年以来台湾MW≥6.0地震震源机制解（a）及台湾中部剖面图（b）（引自Teng，1990；王彦斌等，2000；王辉等，2003；张培震等，2003；张国民等，2004）
Figure 1. Focal mechanism solutions of MW≥6.0 earthquakes in Taiwan since 1976 （a） and profile of Central Taiwan （b）（after Teng，1990；Wang et al，2000；Wang et al，2003；Zhang et al，2003；Zhang et al，2004）
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图 2 台湾MS≥7.0 （a）、台东地震带MS≥6.9 （b）及台西地震带MS≥6.0 （c）地震M-t图（图b，c中红色横线段为地震活动周期）
Figure 2. M-t plots of earthquakes with MS≥7.0 in Taiwan （a），and with MS≥6.9 in the eastern Taiwan （b） as well as with MS≥6.0 in the western Taiwan （c）（The red lines are periods of seismic activity）
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图 4 台西地震带1900年以来MS≥5.0地震周期谱分析
（a） 小波功率谱；（b） 显著周期谱
Figure 4. Periodic spectrum analysis of MS≥5.0 earthquakes of western Taiwan since 1900
（a） Wavelet power spectrum；（b） Significant periodic spectrum
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图 5 台湾地区1970年1月至2022年1月ML≥6.0地震震中及分区剖面上震源深度分布
（a） 台湾地区地震分布及分区剖面位置；（b） 沿剖面AA′ 地震震源分布；（c） 沿剖面BB′ 地震震源分布；（d） 沿剖面CC′ 地震震源分布
Figure 5. Epicenters and cross sections of ML≥6.0 earthquakes in different areas of Taiwan from January 1970 to January 2022
（a） Earthquake distribution in Taiwan and location of the profiles；（b） Focal depth distribution along AA′ profile；（c） Focal depth distribution along BB′ profile；（d） Focal depth distribution along CC′ profile
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图 6 1970年以来台湾ML≥4.0地震震级频次统计（a）和G-R关系（b）
Figure 6. Statistics of magnitude frequency of earthquakes with ML≥4.0 in Taiwan （a） and G-R relationship （b） since 1970
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图 7 台东地震带MS≥7.0地震（a）和台西地震带MS≥6.0地震（b）的EPS评分结果
绿线为相邻两次大震间小震数量，黑线为相应的经验累积分布函数，红色圆点对应上次大震以来的小震数
Figure 7. EPS score results of MS≥7.0 earthquake in eastern Taiwan （a） and of MS≥6.0 earthquake in western Taiwan （b）
The green line is the number of small earthquakes between two adjacent large earthquakes，the black line represents the corresponding empirical cumulative distribution function，the red dot corresponds to the number of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake
表 1 台湾地区MS≥7.0地震活动特征统计
Table 1 Statistics of active periods of MS≥7.0 earthquakes in Taiwan
活跃时段 起止
时间持续
时间/aMS≥7.0
地震频次MS≥7.0地震
平均年频次最大地震
震级MS活跃时段Ⅰ 1 902—1 925 23 8 0.35 8.0 活跃时段Ⅱ 1 935—1 978 43 19 0.44 8.0 活跃时段Ⅲ 1 986—2 006 20 9 0.45 7.6 
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表 2 台东地震带MS≥6.9地震活动特征
Table 2 Statistics of active periods of MS≥6.9 earthquakes in eastern Taiwan
周期
序号起止时间 持续时间/a 统计特征 起止时间 持续时间/a MS≥6.9
地震频次MS≥6.9地震
平均年频次最大地震
震级MS1 1 909—1 935 26 活跃 1 909—1 922 13 9 0.35 8.0 平静 1 922—1 935 13 0 2 1 935—1 943 8 活跃 1 935—1 938 3 5 0.63 7.2 平静 1 938—1 943 5 0 3 1 943—1 957 14 活跃 1 943—1 951 8 7 0.50 7.5 平静 1 951—1 957 6 0 4 1 957—1 972 15 活跃 1 957—1 966 9 5 0.33 7.8 平静 1 966—1 972 6 0 5 1 972—2 002 30 活跃 1 972—1 996 24 12 0.40 8.0 平静 1 996—2 002 6 0 6 2 002—2 022 20 活跃 2 002—2 006 4 3 0.15 7.5 平静 2 006—2 022 16 0
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表 3 台西地震带MS≥6.0地震活动特征
Table 3 Statistics of active periods of MS≥6.0 earthquakes in western Taiwan
大周期 小周期 起止时间 持续时间/a 统计特征 起止时间 持续时间/a MS≥6.0地震频次 大周期Ⅰ
活跃时段小周期1 1901—1916 15 活跃 1901—1909 8 9 平静 1909—1916 7 0 小周期2 1916—1927 11 活跃 1916—1922 6 8 平静 1922—1927 5 0 小周期3 1927—1941 14 活跃 1927—1935 8 8 平静 1935—1941 6 0 小周期4 1941—1955 14 活跃 1941—1950 9 6 平静 1950—1955 5 0 大周期Ⅱ
活跃时段小周期1 1994—2010 16 活跃 1994—2000 6 17 平静 2000—2010 10 0 小周期2 2010—2022 12 活跃 2010—2016 6 4 平静 2016—2022 6 0
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表 4 台湾地区MS≥7.0地震发生一年内所对应的华南地区MS≥5.0地震情况
Table 4 Earthquakes with MS≥5.0 in South China after MS≥7.0 earthquakes in Taiwan occurred within one year
序号 显著地震时间 MS 对应地震 间隔时间/d 1 1 902-11-21 7.3 2 1 909-04-15 7.3 3 1 909-11-21 7.3 4 1 910-04-12 7.8 1 911-02-05 广西灵山东北MS5.3 299 5 1 915-01-06 7.3 6 1 917-07-04 7.0 1 918-02-13 广东南澳东南MS7.3 224 7 1 919-12-21 7.0 8 1 920-06-05 8.0 1 921-03-19 广东南澳西北MS6.3 287 9 1 922-09-02 7.6 10 1 922-09-15 7.2 11 1 925-04-17 7.1 12 1 935-04-21 7.1 1 936-04-01 广西灵山东北MS6.8 346 13 1 935-09-04 7.2 1 936-04-01 广西灵山东北MS6.8 210 1 936-04-23 广东中山MS5.0 232 14 1 936-08-22 7.2 15 1 937-12-08 7.0 16 1 938-09-07 7.0 17 1 938-12-07 7.0 18 1 941-12-17 7.0 1 9 1 947-09-27 7.4 2 0 1 951-10-22 7.3 21 1 951-10-22 7.1 22 1 951-10-22 7.1 23 1 951-11-25 7.5 24 1 951-11-25 7.3 25 1 957-02-24 7.2 26 1 959-04-27 7.5 27 1 959-08-15 7.0 28 1 963-02-13 7.0 29 1 964-01-18 7.0 1 964-09-23 广东河源MS5.1 248 30 1 966-03-13 7.8 31 1 972-01-04 7.2 32 1 972-01-25 8.0 33 1 972-01-25 7.6 34 1 972-04-24 7.3 35 1 975-03-23 7.0 36 1 978-07-23 7.3 37 1 978-12-23 7.0 38 1 986-11-15 7.3 1 987-08-02 江西寻乌西MS5.4 260 39 1 990-12-14 7.0 40 1 994-05-24 7.0 1 994-12-31 北部湾MS6.1 221 1 995-01-10 北部湾MS6.2 231 1 995-02-25 福建晋江MS5.3 277 1 995-03-23 北部湾MS5.1 303 41 1 994-06-05 7.0 1 994-12-31 北部湾MS6.1 2 09 1 995-01-10 北部湾MS6.2 219 1 995-02-25 福建晋江MS5.3 265 1 995-03-23 北部湾MS5.1 291 42 1 996-09-06 7.1 1 997-05-31 福建永安MS5.2 267 43 1 999-09-21 7.6 44 1 999-09-21 7.0 45 1 999-09-26 7.1 46 2 002-03-31 7.5 47 2 003-12-10 7.0 48 2 006-12-26 7.2
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表 5 台湾地区MS≥7.0地震对华南MS≥5.0地震影响的预报效能
Table 5 Prediction effect of MS≥7.0 earthquakes in Taiwan on MS≥5.0 earthquakes in South China
预测时间/d 预报效能 R R0 260 0.38 0.30 300 0.77 0.26 340 0.75 0.26 380 0.72 0.26
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