考虑震源不确定性的近断层高山峡谷场地地震动变异性

Ground motion variability of a mountain-canyon site near a strike-slip fault considering uncertainty of source

  • 摘要: 震源不确定性客观存在且对近地表地震动特性产生显著影响。尝试将乘子降维法应用至考虑震源不确定性的近断层复杂场地地震动变异性求解,将不确定性分析问题转换为有限次确定性分析,获得与蒙特卡洛模拟一致的地震动参数统计矩,其中单次确定性分析采用边界元法模拟断层破裂-地层传播-场地放大整个物理过程。基于此方法,以近走滑断层高山峡谷场地为例,分析了近断层效应、场地效应、震源不确定性的三者耦合作用下场地地震动峰值加速度(PGA)、峰值速度(PGV)空间分布变异性,以及关键地表点谱加速度(SA)和速度大脉冲统计值。结果表明:乘子降维法适用于含震源参数不确定性的近断层复杂场地随机地震动求解;高山峡谷地形对地震波的散射效应叠加近断层效应后引起断层上盘PGA、PGV均值显著增大,可放大至3倍以上;不确定性将在复杂场地中传递,且传递特性与地震波频率有关,引起PGA变异性放大,PGV变异性减弱,考虑一倍均方差时其对地表速度脉冲峰值的影响可达25%以上,对结构反应的影响不可忽略,大跨度工程结构还应考虑近断层地震动变异性的空间分布差异。

     

    Abstract: The epistemic uncertainty of source exists objectively and has a significant impact on the characteristics of near-surface ground motions. In this paper, the multiplicative dimensional reduction method (M-DRM) is applied to solve the ground motion variability of complex sites near faults considering the uncertainty of the source. The uncertainty analysis problem is converted into a finite deterministic analysis to obtain statistical moments of ground motion parameters consistent with Monte Carlo simulation. The deterministic analysis uses the boundary element method to simulate the entire physical process. Based on this method, the mountain-canyon site near a strike-slip fault was discussed as an example. The spatial distribution variability of the peak acceleration (PGA) and peak velocity (PGV) under the coupling of near-fault effect, site effect and source epistemic uncertainty was analyzed, as well as statistical values of spectral acceleration (SA) and velocity large pulse at some surface points. The results show that the M-DRM is suitable for solving random ground motions in complex sites with near faults with uncertainty of source parameters. The scattering effect of the mountain-valley topography on seismic waves and the near-fault effect caused the PGA and PGV means of the hanging wall of the fault increase significantly, and the increase rate could reach 2 times. The uncertainty is transmitted in the complex site, and the transmission characteristics are related to the frequency of seismic waves, resulting in an amplified PGA variability and a decreasing PGV variability. The influence on the peak value of the velocity pulse can reach more than 25%. The influence on the structural response cannot be ignored, and the large-span structures should also consider the spatial distribution difference of ground motion variability.

     

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