基于机器学习的区域地震动模拟

Machine Learning-Based Regional Seismic Motion Simulation

  • 摘要: 地震动时程是进行震前的地震风险评估和震后的灾害损失评估的前提,由于地震动模拟参数的不确定性,模拟结果与真实记录存在较大差异。随着强震观测记录数量和质量的不断增多,利用数据挖掘提取地震特征记录来模拟地震成为可能。本文利用机器学习中的主成分分析法提取了泸定5级余震的特征主成分时程来模拟泸定6.8级主震的地震动时程,结合主震目标台站的地震动的峰值加速度和反应谱作为约束条件,利用粒子群优化算法计算特征主成分时程组合系数来进行主震的模拟,模拟结果与真实记录较为一致,为研究中小地震频发地区可能发生的强震的影响提供了研究思路。

     

    Abstract: The seismic time history plays a crucial role in pre-earthquake risk assessment and post-earthquake damage evaluation. However, due to the uncertainty in simulating seismic motion parameters, there can be notable differences between simulation results and actual records. Fortunately, advancements in data mining techniques and the availability of high-quality strong motion observation records have made it possible to simulate earthquakes by extracting seismic characteristic records. In this study, we utilized the principal component analysis method from machine learning to extract the characteristic principal component time history of the Luding 5.0 earthquake. This extracted data was then used to simulate the seismic time history of the mainshock, which was a 6.8 magnitude earthquake in Luding. To ensure accuracy, the simulation process incorporated the peak acceleration and response spectrum of the seismic motion at the target station of the mainshock as constraint conditions. By employing the particle swarm optimization algorithm, we calculated the combination coefficients of the characteristic principal component time history to simulate the mainshock. The results of this simulation were found to be consistent with actual records, providing valuable insights for studying the potential impact of strong earthquakes in regions prone to frequent small and medium-sized earthquakes.

     

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