The prolonged quiescence anomaly and the future trends of strong earthquakes in Yunnan region
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摘要:
从1996年丽江MS7.0地震发生后至2023年8月，云南地区M≥6.7和M≥7.0地震出现了长达27.55 a的超长时间平静现象。本文从更大时空尺度上对该平静异常现象及其与青藏高原和川滇地块的强震活动之间的关系进行了分析和总结，并讨论了云南地区未来地震趋势。结果表明，1887年以来，云南地区5次M≥7.0地震平静期内其周边地震活动环境有很大差异性：第 Ⅰ ，第 Ⅱ 和第 Ⅴ平静期出现在青藏高原M≥7.0地震活跃背景下（即云南地区平静，但青藏高原活跃），第 Ⅲ和第Ⅳ平静期出现在青藏高原M≥7.0地震平静背景下（即云南地区平静，青藏高原也平静）。当前云南地区处于27.55 a超长时间平静期（即第Ⅴ平静期），其所处的周边地震活动环境与第Ⅰ 和第 Ⅱ平静期相似，据此推断，其后续地震趋势可能也与第Ⅰ 和第 Ⅱ活跃期相似，处于相对弱的活跃期。同时，未来较长时间青藏高原可能仍将处于M≥7.0地震活跃时段；2022年泸定MS6.8地震后，川滇地块可能会进入M≥6.7地震活跃时段。
Abstract:From the Lijiang MS7.0 earthquake in 1996 to August 22, 2023, a significant phenomenon of seismic quiescence has lasted for 27.55 years, which are the longest quiet period since 1900, both for M≥6.7 and M≥7.0 earthquakes in Yunnan Province. We further analyze and summarize the quiescence anomaly phenomenon of Yunnan’s strong earthquake and its relationship to the seismic status of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and Sichuan-Yunnan block on a larger spatio-temporal scale. Meanwhile, we discuss the future seismic trends in Yunnan region. Here are the conclusions.
1） The energy released by all M≥5.0 earthquakes per year in Yunnan region is equivalent to an M6.7 earthquake, which means an M6.7 represents the mean released energy per year, so we choose M6.7 as the lower limit of strong earthquake to study the seismicity in Yunnan region. The retrospective analysis based on historical earthquakes indicates that the characteristics of active-quiet alternation in Yunnan region, Sichuan-Yunnan block, and QinghaiXizang Plateau, which are closely related to tectonic settings of M≥6.7 or M≥7.0 earthquakes.
Since 1887, there are four active-quiet alternative periods for M≥6.7 earthquakes in Yunnan region, the active periods are 1913−1925, 1936−1955, 1970−1979, 1988−1996 with the mean duration of （11.96±5.35） years, while the quiet periods are 1887−1913, 1925−1936, 1955−1970, 1979−1988 with the mean duration （15.07±7.57） years. As for M≥7.0 earthquakes, the active periods are 1913−1925, 1941−1950, 1970−1976, and 1988−1996 with the mean duration （8.40±2.12） years, while the quiet are 1887−1913, 1925−1941, 1950−1970, 1976−1988 with the mean duration （18.58±5.87） years. The annual rate of occurrence is 0.42−0.83 times per year for M≥6.7 earthquakes and 0.27−0.63 times per year for the M≥7.0 earthquakes in Yunnan region.
Since 1887, there have been two active-quiet alternative periods for M≥6.7 earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan block, and the active periods are 1887−1925, 1948−1996 with the mean duration （42.47±7.38） years, while the quiet periods are 1925−1948, 1996−2022 with the mean duration （24.89±2.40） years. The annual rate of occurrence is 0.16−0.25 times per year for M≥6.7 earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan block.
Since 1897, there have been three active-quiet alternative periods for M≥7.0 earthquakes in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The active periods are 1904−1956, 1970−1976, and 1988 to now, while the quiet periods are 1897−1904, 1956−1970, 1976−1988 with the mean duration （10.88±3.26） years. The annual occurrence rate is 0.88−1.36 times per year for M≥7.0 earthquakes in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.
2） Since 1887, there have been significant differences in seismicity around Yunnan region for its five quiet periods of M≥6.7 earthquakes. The quiescence periods Ⅰ , Ⅱ , and Ⅴ appeared under the background of the seismic activity of M≥7.0 earthquakes in QinghaiXizang Plateau, namely, seismic quiescence appeared in Yunnan region while activity in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. However the quiescence periods Ⅲ and Ⅳ appeared under the background of the quiescence of M≥7 earthquakes in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, namely both quiescence in Yunnan region and Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Currently, the period Ⅴ has lasted for 27.55 years in Yunnan region, and the surrounding seismic activity is similar to that in the quiet periods Ⅰ and Ⅱ . Therefore we deduce the following seismic trend may be in relatively weak active periods, similar to the periods Ⅰ and Ⅱ .
3） The comparison of seismicity between the Big Triangle area and Qinghai-Xizang Plateau shows that the active period （1904−1956） of M≥7.0 earthquakes in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau corresponds to the active period （1879−1957） of M≥8.0 earthquakes in Big Triangle area; from 1956 to 1988 there were two quiet periods in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau which correspond to the quiet period （1954−2001） in Big Triangle area, seismicity of M≥7.0 earthquakes in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau has been in an active period since 1988 while the seismicity of M≥8.0 earthquakes in Big Triangle area has come into a new active period since 2001. These seem to indicate that the active periods are consistent, as well as the quiet periods of M≥7.0 earthquakes in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and M≥8.0 earthquakes in the Big Triangle area. The analogy of the current and the period （1840−1957） of M≥8.0 earthquakes in the Big Triangle area suggests that the current active period of M≥7.0 earthquakes and M≥8.0 earthquakes in the Big Triangle area of East Asian continent will last for decades in the future.
4） On September 5, 2022, an MS6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding, Sichuan Province. The earthquake was located on the Moxi fault, the southeast section of the Xianshuihe fault zone. The quiet period of M≥6.7 earthquakes that lasted for 26.59 years in the SichuanYunnan block since 1996 has been terminated by the Luding MS6.8 earthquake. The following seismicity may be a new active period of M≥6.7 earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan block that analogizes the seismicity of quiet and active periods around 1948.
5） Since 1997, all earthquakes with M≥7.0 in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau have concentrated in the Bayan Har block except for several occurred in the Himalayan belt and Myanmar arc region. The retrospective analysis based on historical earthquakes indicates that the main region of seismic activity is alternative in the Sichuan-Yunnan block and Bayan Har block: Seismic activity appeared in the Bayan Har block while quiescence in the Sichuan-Yunnan block, by contrast, seismic activity appeared in the Sichuan-Yunnan block while less activity in Bayan Har block. Based on the inference, seismicity will be active in the Sichuan-Yunnan block and weak in the Bayan Har block after the Luding MS6.8 earthquake in 2022.
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图 1 青藏高原活动地块划分及历史强震震中分布图
（a） 青藏高原M≥7.0地震分布。Ⅰ ：拉萨地块；Ⅱ ：羌塘地块；Ⅲ ： 巴颜喀拉地块；Ⅳ：柴达木地块；Ⅴ：祁连地块；Ⅵ：川滇地块；Ⅶ：滇南地块；Ⅷ：滇西地块；地块边界数据来引自张培震等（2003）。（b） 云南地区M≥6.7地震分布. F1：安宁河—小江断裂带；F2：红河断裂带；F3：澜沧江断裂带；断裂数据引自张国民等（2005）
Figure 1. Distribution of active blocks and strong earthquakes in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
（a） Distribution of M≥7.0 earthquakes in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Ⅰ ：Lhasa block；Ⅱ ：Qiangtang block；Ⅲ ：Bayan Har block；Ⅳ ：Qaidam block；Ⅴ ：Qilian block；Ⅵ ：Sichuan-Yunnan block；Ⅶ ：Southern Yunnan block；Ⅷ：Western Yunnan block. Block data are from Zhang et al （2003）. （b） Distribution of M≥6.7 earthquakes in Yunnan region. F1：Anninghe-Xiaojiang fault zone；F2：Honghe fault zone；F3：Lancangjiang fault zone；the fault data refer from Zhang et al （2005）
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图 2 1887—2022年云南地区M≥6.7和M≥7.0地震M-t图
图中彩色条带中数字为持续时间，下同
Figure 2. M-t plot of M≥6.7 and M≥7.0 earthquakes in Yunnan region in the period of 1887−2022
The numbers in color bar represent the duration，the same below
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图 3 1880—2022年青藏高原M≥7.0地震时序分布
（a） M-t图；（b） 时间间隔dt-t图，tavg为青藏高原M≥7.0平均间隔时间；1std为1倍均方差线；2std为2倍均方差线，下同
Figure 3. Distribution with time series for M≥7.0 earthquakes in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in 1880−2022
（a） M-t；（b） dt-t， where tavg represent the mean time interval for M≥7.0 earthquake in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau，1std represent the 1 time mean square variance，2std represent the 2 times mean square variance，the same below
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图 4 云南地区5个M≥7.0地震平静期内青藏高原M≥7.0地震震中分布图
Figure 4. Distribution of M≥7.0 earthquakes in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau during five quiescence periods of M≥7.0 earthquakes in Yunnan region
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图 5 1880—2022年川滇地块M≥6.7地震时序分布图
（a） M-t图；（b） 时间间隔dt-t图
Figure 5. Distribution of M≥6.7 earthquake with time in Sichuan-Yunnan block （1880−2022）
（a） M-t；（b） Time interval dt-t
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图 6 1880—2022年巴颜喀拉地块和川滇地块M≥6.7地震的分布
（a） 震中分布图；（b） 时序分布图M-t图，①，②，③，④为划分的4个时段
Figure 6. Distribution of M≥6.7 earthquakes in Bayan Har block and Sichuan-Yunnan block in 1880−2022
（a） Distribution of epicenters；（b） M-t plot，where ①，②，③ and ④ represent four divided periods
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图 7 1800—2022年大三角区内M≥8.0地震震中分布图（a）、M-t图（b）和时间间隔dt-t图（c）
Figure 7. Distribution of M≥8.0 earthquakes （1800−2022） in Big Triangle area of East Asian continent （a），M-t （b），time interval dt-t （c）
表 1 云南地区M≥6.7和M≥7.0地震活跃-平静分期特征
Table 1 Characteristics of active-quiet periods of earthquakes with M≥6.7 and M≥7.0 in Yunnan region
序号 发震日期
年-月-日震中位置 震级 震中
位置间隔时间/a 活动分期 活动特征 北纬/° 东经/° M≥6.7 M≥7.0 M≥6.7 M≥7.0 0 1 887-12-16 23.70 102.50 7.0 石屏 第Ⅰ平静期 t＝26.01 a
n＝0
r＝0t＝26.9 a
n＝0
r＝01 1 913-12-21 24.15 102.45 7.0 峨山 26.01 t＝12.00 a t＝11.24 a 2 1 917-07-31 28.00 104.00 6.7 大关 3.61 3 1 923-06-22 22.75 98.75 7.3 缅甸 5.89 9.51 第Ⅰ活跃期 n＝5 n＝3 4 1 925-03-16 25.70 100.40 7.0 大理 1.73 1.73 r＝0.42 r＝0.42 5 1 925-12-22 21.00 101.50 6.8 老挝 0.77 第Ⅱ平静期 t＝10.35 a
n＝0
r＝0t＝16.17 a
n＝0
r＝06 1 936-04-27
1 936-05-1628.90
28.50103.60
103.606.7
6.7马边
马边10.35
0.057 1 941-05-16 23.60 99.40 7.0 耿马 5.00 16.17 t＝19.41 a t＝8.71 a 8 1 941-12-26 22.70 99.90 7.0 澜沧 0.61 0.61 第Ⅱ活跃期 n＝9 n＝3 9 1 942-02-01 23.10 100.30 6.7 思茅 0.10 r＝0.46 r＝0.34 10 1 950-02-03
1 950-02-0321.70
22.10100.10
99.907.0
6.7勐海
澜沧8.01
08.10
11 1 952-09-30 28.30 102.20 6.7 冕宁 2.66 12 1 955-09-23 26.60 101.80 6.7 永仁 2.98 第Ⅲ平静期 t＝14.28 a
n＝0
r＝0t＝19.92 a
n＝0
r＝013 1 970-01-05 24.20 102.68 7.8 通海 14.28 19.92 t＝9.20 a t＝6.40 a 14 1 971-04-28 23.00 101.10 6.7 思茅 1.31 n＝7 n＝4 15 1 974-05-11 28.20 104.10 7.1 大关 3.04 4.35 第Ⅲ活跃期 r＝0.76 r＝0.63 16 1 976-05-29
1 976-05-2924.50
24.6099.00
98.707.3/
7.4龙陵
龙陵2.05
02.05
017 1 976-11-07 27.60 101.10 6.7 盐源 0.44 1 8 1 979-03-15 23.20 101.10 6.8 宁洱 2.36 1 9 1 983-06-24 21.40 102.60 6.9 越南 4.27 第Ⅳ平静期 t＝9.64 a
n＝1
r＝0.10t＝12.22 a
n＝0
r＝020 1 988-11-06
1 988-11-0622.92
23.1699.79
99.557.4
7.2澜沧
耿马5.37
012.22
0t＝7.24 a t＝7.24 a 21 1 992-04-23
1 992-04-2322.30
22.6099.10
99.006.7
6.9缅甸
缅甸3.46
0第Ⅳ活跃期 n＝6 n＝4 22 1 995-07-12 22.00 99.30 7.3 缅甸 3.22 6.68 r＝0.83 r＝0.55 23 1 996-02-03 27.20 100.30 7.0 丽江 0.56 0.56 第Ⅴ平静期 t＝27.49 a
n＝0
r＝0t＝27.49 a
n＝0
r＝0注：表中t表示持续时间，单位为a；n表示地震次数；r表示年发生率，r＝n/t。 
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表 2 青藏高原、川滇地块、云南地区在活跃期中M≥6.7或M≥7.0地震的年发生率
Table 2 Annual occurrence rate of M≥6.7 or M≥7.0 earthquakes during the active period in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau，Sichuan-Yunnan block and Yunnan region
空间尺度 地震年发生率 M≥6.7 M≥7.0 青藏高原 0.88—1.36 川滇地块 0.16—0.25 云南地区 0.42—0.83 0.27—0.63
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