Reliability research of earthquake early warning information
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摘要: 提出了一种地震预警信息可靠度检验方法. 针对地震预警系统对信息的高度时效性及准确性要求， 并结合其应用特点， 从地震动记录信噪比、 特征参数相容性、 特征参数协调性及地震预警定位结果可靠性等4个方面对地震预警信息的综合可靠度进行探讨， 并分别提出了相应的可靠度定量计算方法. 利用日本KiK-net台网记录的444个地震事件共4737条三分向加速度记录对上述4个指标参数及综合可靠度指标参数的验证结果表明， 采用本方法有助于提高地震预警信息发布的准确性和可靠性， 减少“漏报”及“误报”事件的发生.Abstract: The earthquake early warning system (EEWs) has highly requirements for information’s timeliness and accuracy. In this paper, we proposed an information reliability test method for EEWs. Based on the EEWs’ application features, this paper proposed four information reliability tests, which are signal to noise ratio (SNR) test, characteristic parameters (such as τc and Pd) compatibility test, characteristic parameters coordination test and EEW location reliability test. For each test, a quantitative calculation formula is defined, and then the reliability of the entire information can be calculated. 4737 three-component acceleration records of 444 seismic events from KiK-net in Japan were used in order to test and verify the applicability of our method. The results show that, by taking the reliability tests method proposed in this paper, the accuracy and reliability of the EEW information are improved, and then “missed alarms” or “false alarms” are reduced.
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Keywords:
- earthquake early warning /
- signal to noise ratio /
- compatibility /
- coordination
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图 3 地震预警信息可靠度检验方法示意图
Figure 3. Schematic diagram of reliability test method for earthquake early warning information used in this paper SNR means the signal to noise ratio，τc and Pd are the ground-motion period and the high-pass filtered displacement amplitude from the initial 3 s of the P waveforms，respectively
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图 5 信噪比指标S与震级Mj的关系(窗长为3 s)
Figure 5. Relationship between SNR index S and Mj with a time window length of 3 s
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图 6 信噪比指标S与震级Mj的关系(窗长为5 s)
Figure 6. Relationship between SNR index S and Mj with a time window length of 5 s
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图 9 τc-Pd准则推导过程示意图(引自Böse等，2009)(a)由PGA衰减关系转换得到的Pd随震级和震中距的衰减关系;(b)由PGA衰减关系转换得到的Pd与τc的相容性检验关系
Figure 9. Schematic diagram of derivation of τc-Pd criteria(after Böse et al，2009)(a)Attenuation relationship of Pd with magnitude and epicentral distance based on PGV attenuation relationship;(b)Compatibility test relationship between Pd and τc based on PGV attenuation relationship
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图 10 τc-Pd准则可靠度检验结果图中绿色实线和黄色实线分别表示由本文所用记录确定的震中距为0 km和100 km的两条控制界线，蓝色虚线和红色虚线分别表示±1σ和±2σ的扩展界线
Figure 10. Test result of reliability by using τc-Pd criteria The green and yellow solid lines represent boundary lines for the epicentral distance of 0 km and 100 km，respectively，which were determined by the data used in this paper. Blue and red dashed lines are extended lines with a st and ard deviation of ±1σ and ±2σ，respectively
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图 11 τc-Pd准则可靠度检验结果直方图
Figure 11. Histogram of testing results of reliability by using τc-Pd criteria
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图 12 基于实际触发记录的τc-Pd相容可靠度检验结果(各线段含义同图10)
Figure 12. Test results of reliability by using the τc-Pd compatibility criteria based on actual triggered records (Each line has the same meaning as that in Fig.10)
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图 13 基于噪声记录的τc-Pd相容可靠度检验结果(各线段含义同图10)
Figure 13. Test results of reliability by using τc-Pd compatibility criteria based on noise records (Each line has the same meaning as that in Fig.10)
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图 16 协调性检验关系拟合结果(Mj≥6.0)
Figure 16. Fitting results of coordinate test relationship (Mj≥6.0)
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