大震区的长期活动

THE LONG-TERM ACTIVITY OF LARGE EARTHQUAKE AREAS

  • 摘要: 本文通过对我国内陆地区历史上的一些7级以上大震区地震活动的时、空、强分析后,发现许多大震区时过几十年、几百年乃至近千年,都还有不少的小震活动,有时竟然出现了中强地震,甚至还有与主震震级相当的复发性大地震发生。这里根据我国内陆地区17次8级以上地震和37次7级以上地震区的统计分析后,提出了大震区的长期活动概念。这个概念得到了六十年代中期全国陆续设立区域台网后,特别是1970年以来对大震区的观测事实的支持。 本文除简单地讨论了长期活动的物理意义外,进一步用一些具体事实说明了这种长期活动在趋势预报工作中所具有的现实意义。

     

    Abstract: After the analysis of the parameters time,space,and intensity of seismic activity in seismic areas of some large historical earthquakes of M7 in the inland areas of China,it was found that in many large earthquake areas,after the elapse of several decades,or hundreds of years to even nearly one thousand years,there was still activity of many small earthquakes; sometimes intermediate strong earthquakes occurred; and even recurrent large earthquakes which were comparable to the main shocks also occurred. Here,according to the statistical analysis of seismic areas of 17 earthquakes of M8 and 37 earthquakes of M7,we have proposed the concept of long-term activity in a large earthquake area. This conepet was supported by observational facts in large earthquake areas after establishment of local seismic networks one after another in the middle of the 60's and particularly since 1970. In this paper,besides briefly discussing the physical significance of the long-term activity,the practical significance of such long-term activity in seismic trend predication was further illustrated by some concrete facts.

     

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