一维地震预报评分问题
ON THE PROBLEM OF GRADING FOR ONE-DIMENSIONAL SEISMOLOGIC PREDICTIONS
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摘要: 本文对当前应用较多的各种基于22列联表的一维地震预报评分进行了较全面地评述,文中论及: 1.从统计相关性着眼,Wallen评分V=QS是最合理的预报评分. 2.顾氏评分S、许氏评分R及O评分Q虽便于使用,但各有不足. 3.由V可引入一系列评分,S与Q的调和均值、Hedike评分SH皆在此系列中.定理5-3列出了常见评分的顺序. 4.从重合程度着眼给出了评分W,并由之引出另一个标准化评分列————W系列(标准化后的有效指数h。在其中居于最严的位置).Abstract: This paper gives a complete commentary on some popular grading methods which are based on the 22 contingency table, for one-dimensional seismologic predictions. It contains:1. In view of statistical correlation, the Wallen's grading V =QS is the most reasonable one among all gradings.2. Each one of the three gradings, Gou Zhen-chao's grading S =n11/n1.-n01/n0. Obu-hov's grading Q=n11/n.1-n10/n0. and Xu Shaoxie's grading R =n11/n.1-n1./N, has its owninadequacy; although they are so easy to use.3. A set of gradings can be derived from V. The harmonic mean of S and Q,H(S, Q) and the Hedike's grading SH are members of this set.
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[1] 洪时中,1981.关于地震预报评分问题的初步讨论——在一维情况下的实用评分法.地震研究,4,3, 334——345
[2] Everitt, B. S., 1980.列联表分析(刘韵源、周家丽译),科学出版社,北京.1——36,
[3] 陆远忠、陈章立、王碧泉、刘蒲雄、刘文龙、戴维乐,1985.地震预报的地震学方法.地震出版社,北京248——252[1] 洪时中,1981.关于地震预报评分问题的初步讨论——在一维情况下的实用评分法.地震研究,4,3, 334——345
[2] Everitt, B. S., 1980.列联表分析(刘韵源、周家丽译),科学出版社,北京.1——36,
[3] 陆远忠、陈章立、王碧泉、刘蒲雄、刘文龙、戴维乐,1985.地震预报的地震学方法.地震出版社,北京248——252
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