地震活动盛衰呼应关系及其逻辑组合集成预报

THE RELATIONS BETWEEN A RISED AND FALLEN SEIS- MICITY AS WELL AS THEIR COMBINED INTEGRATED EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION BY USING LOGICAL ALGEBRA

  • 摘要: 本文研究包括:1)以中国陆壳 Ms7强震为例,引用二值逻辑变量,讨论了地震活动盛衰呼应关系.结果表明,这类呼应关系历史拟合率不高,不是理想呼应关系;2)为了综合利用不理想呼应关系,把它改造成为理想呼应关系,使之适用于预报,作者提出应用逻辑代数函数方法,进行逻辑组合集成预报,并使用25个预报因子,具体组建一个预报中国陆壳 Ms7强震年度危险性的逻辑代数函数方程.该方程历史拟合率高,外推检验效果良好.本文最后还就逻辑代数函数方法对地震学应用的前景作了必要的讨论.

     

    Abstract: The author's research in this paper consists of: 1) By way of example for the strong continental .crustal earthquake with magnitude Ms7 in China, the relations between a rised and falen seismicity have been discussed by using bi-value logical variable, the result for research declares that there are not high historical corresponding percentages for the abovementioned relations, which is only an un-ideal relation; 2) In order to together utilizing these un-ideal relations, to reform them into an ideal relation, and make the ideal relation adequate for earthquake prediction, author puts forward that to carry out an integrated earthquake prediction regarding a combined re- lation between a rised and failed seismicity by using the method for logical algebra function, and particularly, by use of 25 predicting factors refering to the data in 60 years, the logical algebra function equations which are useful to judging annual risk o'f the strong continental crustal earthquake with magnitude Ms7 in China have been established, there are very high historical corresponding percentages as far as these equations, the tests of their extrapolation are also very good. And finally, the prospects applying the method for logical algebra function to seismology have been discussed necessarily.

     

/

返回文章
返回