地震预报研究--对此问题及将来工作方向的个人见解

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH--A PERSONAL VIEW OF THE PROBLEMS AND THE DIRECTIONS WHICH FUTURE WORK SHOULD TAKE

  • 摘要: 本文是作者于1983年访华期间接受中国学术刊物的请求而撰写的.文中指出,地震应力在数量上相当小,因此它的效应一定很微妙,需要有灵敏的仪器去觉察它们.文中对压磁效应、波速比、应变、地倾斜、大地测量、电阻率、水氡和前震等各国常用的地震预报手段进行了评价,提出了建议.结论为,虽然注意到了 Brune1(1979)关于在原理上地震可能是不可预报的强有力的论证,但作者并不那样悲观.认为地壳可能十分不均匀,它的状态可能是多变的,这就要求我们拥有大量数据.所以必须同时使用几种方法和大量的仪器进行观测.更多的注意力应放在:(1)地震波传播的各向异性和衰减,(2)多色激光测距,(3)改善构造磁学中的信噪比,(4)在电导率测量中使用可交替极性的供电极和较大面积的测量极网和(5)对前震和余震序列的统计学分析进行重新仔细检验.

     

    Abstract: This paper is written as requested by the Chinese scientific journal during the author's visit to China in 1983.The author believes that seismic stresses are quite small in magnitude and therefore, their effects must be subtle. Sensitive instruments will be required to detect them. For such disciplines used in many countries for earthquake prediction, as piezomagnetic effect, velocity ratio, strain, tilt, geodetic surveying, electrical resistivity, radon and foreshocks, their nature and prospectiveness are discussed and suggestions made. It is noted that although the argument of Brune1(1979) that earthquakes may be unpredictable in principle is forceful, the author is not so pessimistic. The earth's crust may be very inhomogeneous and its behaviour fickle, but that only demands that we have a massive redundancy of data. Several methods and numerous instruments and observations must be used simultaneously. More attention should be given to (1) seismic anisotropy and attenuation, (2) multicoloured laser-ranging, (3) improvements in the signal/noise ratio in tectonomagnetism, (4) use of alternative and more extensive arrays of detector electrodes in resistivity measurements and (5) a careful re-examination of the statistics of foreshock and aftershock sequences.

     

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