地震预报可行性的科学与实践问题讨论

Discussion on scientific and practical problems of feasibility of earthquake prediction

  • 摘要: 唐山地震40周年之际, 回顾我国地震预测预报探索的科学实践历程, 总结其进展, 讨论遇到的科学与实践问题, 展望未来, 这是最好的纪念. 实现地震预报的关键是短临预报, 震前是否有前兆, 是否可以观测到, 是否可应用于预测地震并取得减灾实效, 这都是地震预报探索需要阐明的问题, 即地震预报的可行性研究. 本文主要对地震前兆及其物理基础、 地震能否预测的争论以及观测的重要性等一些重要科学与实践问题进行讨论, 并在此基础上认识到, 地震是有前兆的, 且前兆很复杂, 在充分研究前兆的基础上地震预报是可能的; 此外, 地震预测预报探索需从可行性研究进入更高的探索阶段.

     

    Abstract: The best way for the memory of the 40th anniversary of the 1976 Tangshan MS7.8 earthquake is to review the scientific practice of earthquake prediction research in China, summarize its progress, and discuss scientific and practical problems that we have faced to and prospect for the future. The key to realize earthquake prediction is the short and imminent prediction. Whether there are earthquake precursors, whether such precursors can be observed, and whether the precursors can be used to predict earthquakes and reduce the disasters, which are the questions that the earthquake prediction research must answer. In other words, positive answers to such questions confirm the feasi-bility of earthquake predictions. This paper discusses key scientific and practical problems, such as the detection of earthquake precursors, the physical basis of earthquake precursors, the debate on whether earthquake can be predicted, and the importance of observations, and then comes to the conclusion that there are precursors to earthquake though they are very complex, and it is possible to predict earthquakes. Earthquake prediction research should be developed from phase of feasibility study into the phase of deep exploration.

     

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