中国地震烈度衰减的概率模型
A PROBABILITY MODEL OF SEISMIC INTENSITY ATTENUATION IN CHINA
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摘要: 本文在考虑地震烈度评定和预测的不确定性的基础上,提出建立烈度衰减概率模型的方法。根据我国东部和西部(大致以东经104为界)地区已发生的破坏性地震的等震线图,提供了两个地区地震烈度衰减的概率模型。最后,简要讨论了如何将这一模型应用于地震危险度评定的基本思想。Abstract: A method is presented for use in establishing probability model of seismic intensity attenuation in regions with abundant data of isoseismal maps. Uncertainties which exist both in post-earthquake the evaluation of seismic intensity and in the prediction of intencity of future earthquakes are reflected in the probability model. Probability models for the eastern and the western regions of China have been set up according to the available isoseismal maps of damaging earthquakes in the respective regions. Based on the probability models, instead of the common empirical attenuation formula, a new idea for seismic hazard evaluation has been developed in order to remove some disadvantages inherent in the present hazard evaluations; and the key points for implementing this idea are discussed.
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[8] Cornell, C, A., Eegineering seismic risk analysis, Bzr11. Seism. Soc. Amer., 1968, 58, 1583——1606.[1] 国家地震局,中国地震烈度区划工作报告1981, 79——83,地震出版社.
[2] 刘恢先,关于地震烈度及其工程应用问题,地球物理学报,1978, 21, 340——351.
[3] 廖振鹏,近场地面运动研究,中国地震,1985, 1, 47——51,
[4] 王光远,论地震烈度的模糊性和随机性的表达方式,地震工程与工程振动,1985, 5, 1——5.
[5] Anderson, J. G., On the Attenuation of modified mercalli intensity with distance in the united states, Bull. Seism. Soc.mer. 1978, 68, 1147——1179,
[6] A. H——S Ang and Wilson H. Tang, Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, VoI.Basic Principles, 1975, John Wiley&Sons, Inc., 277——279,
[7] 王光远,地震烈度的模糊综合评定及其在抗震结构设计中的应用,地震工程与工程振动,1982, 2, 17——25,
[8] Cornell, C, A., Eegineering seismic risk analysis, Bzr11. Seism. Soc. Amer., 1968, 58, 1583——1606.
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