大震的连续预报:/
CONTINUOUS PREDICTION OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES
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摘要: 本文的目的是对任何时刻 t 建立下一次我国大陆大震发生的时间、地点的预报公式.首先,我们给出 t 后三个月内我国大陆是否有大震的判别.若有,再进一步确定时间、地点.为此,利用了全球大震与我国大陆大震在时间、地点上的联系,并运用随机过程的理论,导出了所需的公式.Abstract: The purpose of this work is to establish at any time i, formulas for the time and region of the next large earthquake to occur within continental China.At first, a criterion may be obtained to estimate the possibility of the occurrence of a large earthquake in this region during the coming three months after time t. If it should occur, then try to predict its time and location.These formulas are derived by using the relation between the time and region data of the earthquakes, occurred in both the whole world and continental China and by applying the Theory of Stochastic Process.
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[1] 南开大学数学系统计预报科研小组,预测大地震的一种数学方法,地球物理学报,18, 2, 118——126, 1975
[2] 南开大学数学系统计预报科研小组,概率与统计预报及在地震与气象中的应用,97——103,科学出版社,1978
[3] 王梓坤等,地震迁移的统计预报,地质科学,4, 294——306, 1973[1] 南开大学数学系统计预报科研小组,预测大地震的一种数学方法,地球物理学报,18, 2, 118——126, 1975
[2] 南开大学数学系统计预报科研小组,概率与统计预报及在地震与气象中的应用,97——103,科学出版社,1978
[3] 王梓坤等,地震迁移的统计预报,地质科学,4, 294——306, 1973
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