<em>b</em>值预报的物理基础

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b值预报的物理基础

丁文镜

清华大学工程力学系

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- 发布日期: 2011-08-31

PHYSICAL BASIS OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION BY THE b-VALUE

Qinghua University Depertment of Engineering Mechanics

摘要

摘要: 本文遵循地震的断层成因学说, 根据断层宏观剪切破坏条件, 导出了震区应力水平的单一物理参数.详细研究了地震活动的物理过程.由于缺乏必要的原始资料, 对地震序列进行确定性研究存在巨大的困难.就目前情况而论, b值预报可能是估计地震危险性的一个有效方法.本文提出了几种物理模型, 详细研究了b值变化的物理背景, 导出了b值与震区地质构造条件和应力水平之间的关系.利用本文的结果, 可以较好地解释实际观测中发现的b值变化的规律, 以及它的变化范围.倘若在今后的观测中能得到进一步的证实, 这些结果对地震预报会有更多的参考价值.

Abstract: An unique physical parameter for describing the stress level of an earthquake region is deduced on the basis of macroscopic shear fracture conditions of a fault in accordance with the theory that earthquakes are originated by fault displacements. The physical process of seismic activity ha been studied in detail. Due to the lack of the necessary original data, difficulties have been encountered in the study of the earthquake sequences deterministically. For the present state of understanding, earthquake prediction by b-value may be considered as promising in evaluating earthquake hazard.Several physical models are suggested. The physical background of the variation, of the b-value has been analysed in detail. A relation of b-value with the tectonic conditions and the stress level of an earthquake region has been deduced. Based on such result, one may be able to explain certain empirical relation and the range of variation of the b-value observed in practice more satisfactorily. If further observations-should support such result, it could provide valuable informations for earthquake-prediction.

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参考文献(1)

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文章访问数: 1067
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b值预报的物理基础

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PHYSICAL BASIS OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION BY THE b-VALUE

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