• 摘要: 本文资料取自华北地震区1446—1969年的地震记录.选出活动期主峰与拐点地震36次, 每两次之间做埃尔米特插值, 这样就构造出一条等间隔采样的曲线, 它反映了五百年来华北地震活动强弱的变化.设此曲线由两部分组成, 确定性部分和随机部分.给出轮回模式与平稳随机过程的自回归模式, 分别进行外推预测.文中还做了后验综合分析, 将近期资料删截15次分别进行计算、外推、预测.把每个时间段被预测危险的次数相加得到预报曲线.根据这些后验的结果, 于1974年4月估计, 1975至1977年华北将出现地震活动高潮.在此间发生了1975年2月5日的海城地震与1976年7月28日的唐山地震.该曲线对今后华北地震仍具有预报意义.以海城地震开始的华北地震高潮还要延续一段时间, 至1980年后才转入低潮, 且到2001年前后将开始重新活动.

     

    Abstract: Seismic data for the period 1446—1969 in the North China seismic active region have been used in this study. We selected 36 earthquakes which occurred at the points of inflection and at the main peaks of the active periods. Hermitian interpolation was made between the energies of two consecutive earthquakes. In this way, a curve of equal sampling intervals showing the variation of the activity of the North China seismic region during the past 500 years was obtained.This curve may be assumed to consist of two parts, namely, the deterministic part and the stochastic part. A periodic model and an auto-regressional model of stationary stochastic process were respectively proposed for carrying out extrapolation and prediction.By posteriori-test analysis, we mean the interceptions of the recent data 15 times, each followed by computing, extrapolating and predicting separately. Again, by summing up the number of time intervals predicted to be earthquake dangerous, a curve of prediction could be obtained.Based on these results of posteriori-test we predicted in April 1974 the appearance during the time interval from 1975 to 1977 a seismic active period in North China, within which the Haicheng earthquake of 1975 and the Tangshan earthquake of 1976 actually occurred. Moreover, the said curve is still significant for predicting future earthquakes in North China. It seems that the seismic active period of North China starting from the Haicheng earthquake would last for a certain length of time, till about 1980, but it would be again active at around the year 2001.

     

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