地震危险性分析的经验点椭圆模型
EMPIRICAL POINT-ELLIPSE MODEL FOR SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS
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摘要: 本文系统建立地震危险性分析的经验点椭圆模型。对多数地区,等震线略具狭长的形状,经验点椭圆模型可以减小点源模型和断层破裂模型的系统偏差。本文给出了经验点椭圆模型的具体计算方法和实用计算程序EPEMSHA(Empirical point-ellipse model for seismic hazard analysis)。在关键性的条件概率P(Ii|Ei,m)的计算中,本文将关于面积的积分设法解析,从而提高了计算精度和速度。Abstract: An empirical point-ellipse model for seismic hazard analysis is systematicly established in this paper. For most of the regions,isoseismals are of somewhat elongated shape. The empirical point-ellipse model can reduce systematic deviation of point-source and fault-rupture models. Concrete method of computation and the program EPEMSHA (Empirical point-ellipse model for seismic hazard analysis) is given in this paper. In the awkward computation of conditional probability P(Ii Ei,m) integration over an area is analyzed; as a result,the pre-sision and speed of calculation are increased.