用多道维纳滤波方法处理唐山地震前后的大灰厂三种形变资料
PROCESSING THREE KINDS OF DEFORMATION DATA OF THE DAHUICHANG STATION BEFORE AND AFTER TANGSHAN EARTHQUAKE BY THE MULTICHANNEL WIENER FILTERING METHOD
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摘要: 大灰厂的三种形变资料的年变化显然与雨量及温度变化有关,后者在某种程度上干扰了曲线变化中的有效信息.唐山地震前1975年开始的明显变化是上述干扰因素所不能解释的.由于雨量和温度干扰因素的存在,确定异常的幅度及其起始时间是有困难的.我们用多道维纳(Wiener)预测滤波方法由输入(雨量、温度)来预测输出(短水准、连通管及伸缩仪资料).预测输出和实际资料之间的差别(预测偏差)即为我们所求的有效信息.大灰厂短水准异常变化开始于1975年4月,即开始于唐山地震前一年多.震前三个月左右观测到明显的短期异常.总异常幅度约为2毫米左右(短水准基线为26米).异常表明,唐山地震前八宝山断层活动特征具有逆冲性.Abstract: The annual changes of three kinds of deformation data in Dahuichang are obviously related to the changes of rainfall and temperature, the latter disturbs the significant signals in the varied curves to some extent. However, the interferences are far from being enough to obscure the remarkable changes started since 1975 before the Tangshan Earthquake. It is difficult to determine the amplitude and onset of the anomalies because of the existence of the interferring factors due to rainfall and temperature changes.We adopt mulit-channel Wiener filtering method to predict the output of the data (such as shortline levelling, watertube tilt and extensometer) by the input (rainfall and temperature). The difference, between the predicted output and the observed data (prediction error) is the significant signals that we desire.The anomalous change of shortline levelling started at Dahuichang in April, 1975, just one year and a little more before the Tangshan Earthquake. Obviously short-term anomalies had been observed about three months before the earthquake. The total amplitude of anomaly is about 2mm (the base line of the short levelling is 26 meters). The anomalies show that the Pabaoshan fault was thrusting before the Tangshan. Earthquake.
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[1] Ghang, Guomin and Jingnan Qiou, Analysis of the process of preparation and the medium——term precursors of the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake (M=7.8), International Symposium on Earthquake Prediction, Paris, 1979.
[2] P. G. Jennings, Earthquake Engineering and Hazards Redluctian in Ghina, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D. C. 1980.
[3] E. A. Robinaon, StatSatical Communication and Detection, Charles Griffin and Co. Ltd., London.1967.
[4] E. A. Robinson, Multichannel Time Series Analysis with Digital Computer Programs, Holden——Day,Inc. San Francisco, 1967.
[5] Y. Ishikawa, and T. Miyatake, Application of the Wiener's predictive filter to the records of crustal deformations and seiamicity, Ziain (in Japanese), 31, 73——86, 1978.
[6] F. T. Wu, and W. J. Wu, 8eismicity time aeries analysis, Symposium on Mathematical Geophysics, Caracas, Venezuela, 1978.
[7] 陈运泰,黄立人等,用大地测量资料反演的1976年唐山地震的位错模式,地球物理学报,22, 3, 201——217,1979.
[8] 李方全,王连捷华北地区地应力测量,地球物理学报,22,1, 1——8,1979.
[9] 王宋贤,郑东炎等,北京地区断层的活动,地珠物理学报,21, 4, 269——277, 1978.
[10] C. B. Raleigh, G. Bennett, H. Qraig, T. Hanks, P. Molnar, A. Nur, J. Savage, C. Seholz, R. Zurner, and F. T. Wu, The Prediction of Haieheng Earthquake, Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 58, 236——272, 1977.[1] Ghang, Guomin and Jingnan Qiou, Analysis of the process of preparation and the medium——term precursors of the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake (M=7.8), International Symposium on Earthquake Prediction, Paris, 1979.
[2] P. G. Jennings, Earthquake Engineering and Hazards Redluctian in Ghina, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D. C. 1980.
[3] E. A. Robinaon, StatSatical Communication and Detection, Charles Griffin and Co. Ltd., London.1967.
[4] E. A. Robinson, Multichannel Time Series Analysis with Digital Computer Programs, Holden——Day,Inc. San Francisco, 1967.
[5] Y. Ishikawa, and T. Miyatake, Application of the Wiener's predictive filter to the records of crustal deformations and seiamicity, Ziain (in Japanese), 31, 73——86, 1978.
[6] F. T. Wu, and W. J. Wu, 8eismicity time aeries analysis, Symposium on Mathematical Geophysics, Caracas, Venezuela, 1978.
[7] 陈运泰,黄立人等,用大地测量资料反演的1976年唐山地震的位错模式,地球物理学报,22, 3, 201——217,1979.
[8] 李方全,王连捷华北地区地应力测量,地球物理学报,22,1, 1——8,1979.
[9] 王宋贤,郑东炎等,北京地区断层的活动,地珠物理学报,21, 4, 269——277, 1978.
[10] C. B. Raleigh, G. Bennett, H. Qraig, T. Hanks, P. Molnar, A. Nur, J. Savage, C. Seholz, R. Zurner, and F. T. Wu, The Prediction of Haieheng Earthquake, Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 58, 236——272, 1977.
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