Analysis on statistic characteristics of seismic gap in Chinese mainland

  • 摘要: 对中国大陆具备相对完整资料的367次5级以上地震,分5个工作片区进行统一定性要求的地震空区图像扫描,得到194次震前的空区图像.其中震前有空区地震与研究地震的比例分别为:华北片区14:36;华东南片区21:24;川滇片区68:124;青藏高原北部片区36:82;新疆片区55:101.震前出现空区图像比例最低的为华北地区,最高的为华东南地区,新疆与川滇地区基本相当.在此基础上着重讨论了空区形成后发生的主震与空区形成持续时间、空区空间分布尺度及围空地震震级等的统计关系.结果表明,空区的持续时间、空间尺度与主震震级间存在一定的相关关系,但其误差较大.而围空的起始震级在5 级主震前为ML2.5左右,6级主震前为ML3.5左右,7级以上主震前为ML4.0左右.主震通常发生在空区的边缘及附近的外部地区.5级、6级和7级地震前出现空区图像的比例分别为45.8%、72.%6%和100%,一定程度上表明了震前空区图像是强震前的重要异常判据.

     

    Abstract: By searching seismicity gap patterns in 5 study regions with the same procedure, we obtained appearance of gap before 194 earthquakes from a relatively complete catalogue of 367 Mge;5.0 earthquakes in Chinese mainland. The ratios of the earthquakes with gap over total studied earthquakes in different regions are 14:36 for northern China, 21:24 for southeastern China, 68:124 for Sichuan and Yunnan region, 36:82 for the northern Qingzang Plateau, and 55:101 for Xinjiang region, respectively. The region with lowest gap ratio before studied earthquakes is the northern China, and that with highest ratio is the southeastern China, the ratios of Xinjiang region and Sichuan province are nearly equal. Based on the above, we discussed statistic relation between the mainshock occurrence after the gap formation and the lasting time of the gap, gap scale, and the earthquake magnitude forming gaps. The result shows that there exists certain correlation between the gap lasting time, gap scale and mainshock magnitude, but the error is large. The gap threshold magnitude for M5 mainshock is ML2.5 or so, the threshold magnitude for M6 mainshock is ML3.5 or so, and the threshold for M 7 earthquake is aboutML4.0, and the mainshocks are usually located on gap verge or outside. The gap ratio before ML5,M6 and M7 earthquakes are 46%、73% and 100%, respectively.

     

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