Real-time estimation of potentially damaged zone for earthquake early warning based on thresholds of P-wave parameters
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摘要: 由于传统的潜在破坏区范围估算方法只能在已获取到震中位置和地震事件结束后才能产出，且往往需要数分钟的耗时，其实时性已无法满足地震预警要求。因此，为了快速产出潜在破坏区范围估算结果并将其用于预警，本文采用了一种结合现地预警技术和区域预警技术、基于预警参数（位移幅值Pd和特征周期τc）阈值的实时潜在破坏区范围估算方法。首先利用国内地震事件（4.0≤MS≤8.0）的记录数据和日本强震动观测事件（6.5≤MJ≤8.0）的数据拟合出特定的适应于我国的参数关系式，包括τc与震级M的相关性、Pd与峰值速度PGV的相关性以及Pd与τc和震源距R的相关性；其次，根据最小震级（MS6.0）和仪器烈度（Ⅶ度）定义相应的参数阈值（Pd＝0.1 cm和τc＝1.1 s）；最后，利用已有的3次破坏性地震事件数据开展线下模拟，对该方法的适应性和时效性进行了验证。结果表明，对于2013年MS7.0四川芦山和2014年MS6.5云南鲁甸两次中强地震，震后约10 s即可获取到比较稳定的潜在破坏区范围估计结果；而对于2008年MS8.0汶川特大地震，在其记录台站分布密度不高的情况下，震后40 s左右的估算结果始呈稳定状态。Abstract: Conventional methods used for potentially damaged zone （PDZ） estimation usually take several minutes to produce the results, which are generated only after the epicenter of an earthquake has been acquired and the seismic event has ended, its real-time performance cannot meet the requirements of earthquake early warning （EEW）. Therefore, to rapidly produce the estimated range of PDZ for EEW, in this paper, we adopted a real-time method to estimate the PDZ range. The method is an integrated on-site and regional early-warning method based on the predefined thresholds of two early-warning parameters, the peak displacement （Pd） and characteristic period （τc）. Firstly, we used seismic events records with MS between 4.0 and 8.0 from the China Strong Motion Networks Center and strong-motion records with MJ between 6.5 and 8.0 downloaded from the Japanese National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience to linearly fit relationships of early-warning parameters, including τc versus M, Pd versus PGV, and Pd as a function of τc and hypocentral distance R. We then defined two early-warning parameters thresholds which are set for a minimum magnitude MS6.0 and instrumental intensity Ⅶ, according to the empirical regression analyses of the applied data. At each recording site, the alert level is assigned based on a decisional table with four alert levels defined upon critical values of the parameters Pd and τc. These two threshold values are Pd＝0.1 cm and τc＝1.1 s. Given a real-time, evolutionary estimation of earthquake location from first P arrivals, the method furnishes an estimation of the extent of PDZ as inferred from continuously updated averages of the period parameter and from mapping of the alert levels determined at the near-source seismic stations. Finally, to test the method’s efficiency and rapidity on mapping the damage zone in a few seconds after an earthquake occurrence, we offline applied the methodology to the strong-motion records of three destructive seismic events. The results show that a robust estimation of the PDZ range for moderate-to-large earthquakes like the 2013 MS7.0 Lushan and 2014 MS6.6 Ludian events can be obtained at about 10 s after the earthquake occurrence. And for the Wenchuan giant earthquake, as the case of low density of recording stations, the prediction of the PDZ becomes stable about 40 s after its occurred time.
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图 1 本研究所用震例分布情况
（a） 地震事件数-震级分布情况；（b） 所用记录的震源距-震级分布情况
Figure 1. Distribution of earthquakes used in this study
（a） Distribution of the number of events with magnitude；（b） Hypocentral distance versus magnitude for the chosen earthquake records
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图 2 τc与震级M的相关性
（a） 同时使用我国和日本地震事件记录的拟合结果；（b） 仅使用我国地震事件记录的拟合结果 空心圆表示每个地震事件对应的各台站记录计算的τc值，实心圆表示每个地震事件对应的各台站的τc平均值；黑色实线表示τc与震级的拟合关系曲线，灰色虚线表示1倍标准方差
Figure 2. Correlations between τc and magnitude M
（a） Fitting result derived from China and Japan earthquake data；（b） Fitting result derived only from China earthquake data Open circles represent τc values of each strong-motion record，while black dots indicate averaged τc of each event. The empirical τc versus magnitude relation is shown by black solid line with its standard deviations shown by gray dashed lines
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图 3 Pd与PGV相关性
（a） 同时使用我国和日本地震事件记录的拟合结果；（b） 仅使用我国地震事件记录的拟合结果 圆点表示每条记录对应的Pd与PGV值，黑色实线表示线性拟合曲线，灰色虚线表示1倍标准方差
Figure 3. Relationship between Pd and PGV
（a） Fitting result derived from China and Japan earthquake data；（b） Fitting result derived only from China earthquake data Gray dots represent Pd and PGV values of each strong-motion record. Solid black line indicates the linear fitting curve and the two gray dashed lines show the range of one standard deviation
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图 5 鲁甸MS6.6 （a）、芦山MS7.0 （b）和汶川MS8.0 （c）地震在发震后指定秒的潜在破坏区范围模拟结果
蓝色到红色的转换边界表示Pd ＝ 0.1 cm等值线，对应于从式（2）计算获取到IMM＝Ⅶ的下限值，图中调查烈度线数据来源于中国地震局（2008，2013，2014）
Figure 5. Simulation results of potentially damaged zone estimation in the specified seconds after the earthquake occurred time for the Ludian MS6.5 （a），Lushan MS7.0 （b） and Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquakes （c）
The color transition from blue to red represents the Pd＝0.1 cm isoline，which corresponds to a IMM＝Ⅶ，based on the scaling relationship of equation （2），and the observed damage zones were downloaded from China Earthquake Administration （2008，2013，2014）
表 1 线下模拟的3次破坏性地震事件的相关信息
Table 1 The three damaging earthquakes used for off-line simulation
事件 发震时刻 震中位置 震源深度/km MS 年−月−日 时:分:秒 东经/° 北纬/° 云南鲁甸地震 2014−08−03 16:30:12 103.33 27.11 10 6.6 四川芦山地震 2013−04−20 08:02:48 102.99 30.30 17 7.0 四川汶川地震 2008−05−12 14:28:00 103.42 31.01 14 8.0 
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