A method for seismic landslide hazard assessment using simplified Newmark displacement model based on modified strength parameters of rock mass
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摘要: 地震滑坡危险性评估可为震后应急响应等提供科学的决策依据。纽马克位移法可不依赖同震滑坡编目快速评估同震滑坡危险性。工程岩体物理力学参数是该方法的核心参数之一，但其赋值过于单一，难以反映复杂地质背景下岩体强度的空间差异性。针对上述问题，本文在分析地震滑坡影响因子的基础上，选择距断层距离、高程和距水系距离作为影响岩体强度的评价指标并建立岩体强度评价模型，获得区域岩体强度修正系数，进而修正传统方法的临界加速度。结合震后的即时地震动峰值加速度，采用简化纽马克位移法计算边坡累积位移，开展地震滑坡危险性快速评估，并以汶川MW7.9地震的地震滑坡危险性评估为例验证本文方法。结果表明，相对于传统方法，本文方法划分的地震滑坡危险区与同震滑坡分布更加一致。Abstract: Rapid assessment of seismic landslide hazard can provide a scientific basis fordecision-making aimed at post-earthquake emergency response. The Newmark displacement model can quickly assess the seismic landslide hazard after an earthquake without co-seismic landslide inventory. However, as one of the main parameters of the Newmark displacement model, physical and mechanical parameters of the rock mass assigned by traditional methods are too single to reflect the spatial differences of real rock mass strength under complex geological background. To tackle this issue, the distance to the fault, the elevation, and the distance to the river were selected as the evaluation indexes affecting the strength of rock mass, and the evaluation model of rock mass strength was established to obtain the regional rock mass strength modified coefficient, and then the critical acceleration obtained by the traditional method was modified. Combined with the instantaneous peak ground acceleration after an earthquake, the simplified Newmark empirical displacement model was used to calculate the slope cumulative displacement, and the rapid assessment of seismic landslide hazard was conducted. The Wenchuan MW7.9 earthquake was selected as the studied area to validate the performance of the presented method. Results show that the seismic landslide hazard area divided by the presented method is more consistent with the actual co-seismic landslide distribution compared to traditional method. The presented method in this paper can be used for rapid assessment of seismic landslide hazard, which has important reference value for guiding post-earthquake emergency rescue and land planning and also provides a new idea for the subsequent establishment of a basic geological spatial database.
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图 1 研究区断层分布及地震动图
Figure 1. Distribution of fault and ground motion map in the study area
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图 2 研究使用的主要数据源
（a） 地震动图；（b） 工程岩组；（c） 地形坡度；（d） 同震滑坡
Figure 2. Data sources used in this study
（a） Ground motion maps；（b） Engineering rock mass；（c） Topographic slopes；（d） Co-seismic landslides
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图 3 研究区斜坡静态安全系数（a）和临界加速度（b）分布
Figure 3. Distribution of static factor of safety （a） and critical acceleration （b） in study area
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图 4 岩体强度的主要评价指标
（a） 高程；（b） 距水系距离；（c） 距断层距离
Figure 4. Main evaluation indicators for rock mass strength
（a） Elevation；（b） Distance to the river；（c） Distance to the fault
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图 5 研究区岩体强度修正系数（a）和修正后的临界加速度（b）
Figure 5. Distribution of the modified factor of rock mass strength （a） and the modified critical acceleration （b）
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图 6 基于不同临界加速度获得的边坡累积位移分布及其差异性
（a） 传统临界加速度；（b） 修正临界加速度；（c） 不同临界加速度的边坡位移差分
Figure 6. Distribution and differences of cumulative displacement of slopes calculated using different critical accelerations
（a） Critical acceleration；（b） Modfied critical acceleration；（c） Cumulative displacement difference
表 1 研究区工程地质岩组结构面强度经验赋值
Table 1 Empirical value of the structural surface strength of the engineering geological rocks in the studied area
工程地质岩组 有效内摩擦角/° 有效黏聚力/MPa 坚硬岩组 40 0.035 较坚硬岩组 35 0.028 较软岩组 30 0.025 软岩组 20 0.015 
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表 2 判别矩阵定量标度及其描述
Table 2 Scale of judgment matrix and its description
标度值bij 相对重要性描述 1 bi与bj 同样重要 3 bi比bj 稍微重要 5 bi比bj 明显重要 7 bi比bj 强烈重要 9 bi比bj 极端重要 2，4，6，8 上述相邻的判断中值 倒数 bij＝bji
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表 3 评价指标权重和对应的判别矩阵
Table 3 Evaluation index weight and corresponding judgment matrix
评价指标 距断层距离 高程 距水系距离 权重 一致性检验 距断层距离 1 3 7 0.669 4 CI＝0.003 5＜0.1 高程 1/3 1 3 0.242 6 距水系距离 1/7 1/3 1 0.087 9
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表 4 不同临界位移对应的地震滑坡危险性评价
Table 4 The hazard assessment of seismic landslide corresponding to different threshold
坡体饱和度 临界位移T/cm 传统方法计算获得的边坡累积位移DN 本文方法计算获得的边坡累积位移DNc LPA HAR LPA HAR m＝0 0.01 88.56% 43.13% 90.01% 45.13% 0.5 62.90% 23.55% 72.15% 27.31% 1 50.94% 17.40% 62.36% 21.56% 2 36.32% 11.05% 48.61% 14.96% 3 27.84% 7.92% 39.20% 11.15% 4 22.30% 6.08% 32.51% 8.75% 5 18.55% 4.90% 27.51% 7.11% m＝0.5 0.01 93.01% 51.29% 93.47% 52.31% 0.5 78.62% 34.47% 83.40% 37.26% 1 70.43% 28.79% 77.21% 31.93% 2 58.33% 21.65% 67.28% 25.20% 3 49.75% 17.25% 59.49% 20.82% 4 43.36% 14.34% 53.36% 17.71% 5 38.52% 12.27% 48.26% 15.39% m＝1 0.01 95.46% 59.80% 95.55% 60.17% 0.5 89.47% 46.72% 91.06% 48.41% 1 85.15% 41.98% 88.03% 44.04% 2 78.00% 35.81% 82.68% 38.27% 3 72.08% 31.54% 77.83% 34.23% 4 67.19% 28.29% 73.54% 31.06% 5 63.08% 25.74% 69.71% 28.51%
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表 5 不同岩组对应的地震滑坡危险性评价
Table 5 The hazard assessment of seismic landslide corresponding to different rock groups
坡体饱和度 岩组 传统方法计算获得的边坡累积位移DN 本文方法计算获得的边坡累积位移DNc LPA HAR LPA HAR m＝0 软岩 45.45% 0.50% 52.27% 0.59% 较软岩 44.80% 15.62% 51.68% 19.21% 较硬岩 42.23% 26.24% 59.64% 41.45% 坚硬岩 10.64% 1.18% 19.75% 2.46% m＝0.5 软岩 52.27% 0.67% 54.55% 0.81% 较软岩 65.88% 31.80% 70.30% 35.15% 较硬岩 68.12% 49.26% 79.07% 61.38% 坚硬岩 28.69% 4.02% 39.68% 6.15% m＝1 软岩 61.36% 1.04% 63.64% 1.12% 较软岩 82.65% 54.50% 84.56% 56.76% 较硬岩 86.60% 72.34% 91.42% 78.46% 坚硬岩 56.48% 11.62% 63.92% 13.93%
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