基于断裂两侧应变能积累的地震危险性参数估计—以1679年三河—平谷M8.0地震为例

刘培玄, 李小军, 赵纪生

刘培玄, 李小军, 赵纪生. 2019: 基于断裂两侧应变能积累的地震危险性参数估计—以1679年三河—平谷M8.0地震为例. 地震学报, 41(2): 259-268. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20180110
引用本文: 刘培玄, 李小军, 赵纪生. 2019: 基于断裂两侧应变能积累的地震危险性参数估计—以1679年三河—平谷M8.0地震为例. 地震学报, 41(2): 259-268. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20180110
Liu Peixuan, Li Xiaojun, Zhao Jisheng. 2019: Seismic hazard parameters estimation based on strain energy accumulation in both sides of a fault:Taking the 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M8.0 earthquake as an example. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 41(2): 259-268. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20180110
Citation: Liu Peixuan, Li Xiaojun, Zhao Jisheng. 2019: Seismic hazard parameters estimation based on strain energy accumulation in both sides of a fault:Taking the 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M8.0 earthquake as an example. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 41(2): 259-268. DOI: 10.11939/jass.20180110

基于断裂两侧应变能积累的地震危险性参数估计—以1679年三河—平谷M8.0地震为例

基金项目: 地震科技星火计划项目(XH17054Y)和国家自然科学基金项目(51608098)联合资助
详细信息
    通讯作者:

    李小军: e-mail: beerli@vip.sina.com

  • 中图分类号: P315.5

Seismic hazard parameters estimation based on strain energy accumulation in both sides of a fault:Taking the 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M8.0 earthquake as an example

  • 摘要: 本文基于断裂两侧应变能积累的概念,利用新夏垫断裂上探槽研究的古地震资料和1679年三河—平谷M8.0地震的历史资料,通过原地地震复发原则来评价指定断裂(段)在某一时段内的地震危险性,探讨其在未来一段时间内可能发生地震的最大潜在震级。由此说明现今应变能确定所面临的困难,而应用局部化应变(变形)与岩石-断裂系统局部失稳临界条件之间的联系,理论上可以由变形带的宽度减小率来预估未来地震的发生时间。
    Abstract: Based on the historical data of the 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M8.0 earthquake and paleo-earthquake data revealed by trenching on the Xinxiadian fault, together with the principle for earthquake recurrence in-situ on a fault or a segment, the maximum potential magnitude in the future on some segments of Xinxiadian fault is evaluated by taking consideration of the concept that strain energy accumulates on both sides of a fault. This illustrates that due to difficulty in determining the strain and stress in deep crustal rocks, the accumulated strain energy cannot be determined accurately. On the other hand, when the strain (deformation) localization is combined with the local instability critical conditions of the rock-fault system, the decreasing rate of deformation belt could be used for prediction of earthquake occurrence.
  • 图  1   新夏垫断裂上未来一段时间内可能发生地震的最大潜在震级

    Figure  1.   The maximum potential magnitude of an earthquake on the Xinxiadian fault in a period in the future

    (a) 0—7 000 a;(b) 338—638 a

    图  2   新夏垫断裂上未来一段时间内可能发生地震的最大潜在震级

    Figure  2.   The maximum potential magnitude of an earthquake on the Xinxiadian fault in a period in the future

    (a) 0—7 000 a;(b) 338—638 a

    图  3   变形带宽度b为1 m (a),0.5 m (b)和0.25 m (c)时位移和应变的分布示意图

    Figure  3.   Distribution of displacement and strain with deformation belt width of 1 m (a),0.5 m (b) and 0.25 m (c)

    图  4   不同变形带宽度b所对应的断裂两侧的应变能积累曲线

    Figure  4.   Strain energy accumulation curves in both sides of a fault with different width b of deformation belt

    图  5   岩体(a)和界面(b)的剪应力G与剪应变γ关系示意图

    Figure  5.   The relationship between shear stress G and shear strain γ on rock (a) and at interface (b)

    表  1   新夏垫断裂两次地表断错事件的参考位移量

    Table  1   The displacements associated with the last two events along the Xinxiadian fault

    剖面位置 综合推测的位移量/m
    东柳河电东北1 1.00
    东柳河电东北2 1.30
    二里半 1.06
    潘各庄西 1.74
    大胡庄西南 1.17
    大胡庄南1 1.25
    齐心庄西南 1.00
    齐心庄南1 0.97
    齐心庄南2 0.96
    齐心庄东南 0.58
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2018-09-05
  • 修回日期:  2018-11-25
  • 网络出版日期:  2019-03-17
  • 发布日期:  2019-02-28

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