潜在地震滑坡的概率危险性分析

付国超 潘华 程江 郑立夫

付国超,潘华,程江,郑立夫. 2023. 潜在地震滑坡的概率危险性分析—以陕西陇县为例. 地震学报,45(1):1−16 doi: 10.11939/jass.20210147
引用本文: 付国超,潘华,程江,郑立夫. 2023. 潜在地震滑坡的概率危险性分析—以陕西陇县为例. 地震学报,45(1):1−16 doi: 10.11939/jass.20210147
Fu G C,Pan H,Chen J,Zheng L F. 2023. Probability hazard analysis of potential earthquake-induced landslide:A case study of Longxian County, Shanxi Province. Acta Seismologica Sinica,45(1):1−16 doi: 10.11939/jass.20210147
Citation: Fu G C,Pan H,Chen J,Zheng L F. 2023. Probability hazard analysis of potential earthquake-induced landslide:A case study of Longxian County, Shanxi Province. Acta Seismologica Sinica45(1):1−16 doi: 10.11939/jass.20210147

潜在地震滑坡的概率危险性分析以陕西陇县为例

doi: 10.11939/jass.20210147
基金项目: 国家重点研发项目(2022YFC3003502)和北京市地震局2022年面上项目(BJMS-2022003)联合资助
详细信息
    作者简介:

    付国超,在读博士研究生,主要从事地震地质及地震危险性分析等方面的研究,e-mail: fuguochaofly@sina.com

    通讯作者:

    潘华,博士,研究员,主要从事地震危险性分析、震害预测和防震减灾等研究,e-mail:panhua.mail@163.com

  • 中图分类号: P315.9

Probability hazard analysis of potential earthquake-induced landslide:A case study of Longxian County, Shanxi Province

  • 摘要: 本文采用第五代地震动参数区划图的潜在震源区划分方案并结合Newmark位移模型,根据陇县工程地质岩性及地形高程数据,同时考虑了地震动地形放大效应以及纽马克模型参数的不确定性,给出了陕西陇县地区地震动发生率为50年10%水平时滑坡的失稳概率,根据所得结果将研究区潜在地震滑坡危险程度分为 4个等级:极低危险区、低危险区、中危险区、高危险区。中、高危险区主要集中于陇县地区的泥岩、粉砂岩以及黄土覆盖地且斜坡坡度大于 40° 的地区。其中千河及其通关河两岸部分地区的地震滑坡危险性较高。本文结果可为该地区的地震滑坡风险管理和土地规划提供参考。

     

  • 图  1  区域地震构造及地形地貌图

    (a)研究区及周边地震和断裂分布图;(b) 陇县的地形地貌图。F1:六盘山断裂带;F2:小关山断裂; F3 :通渭断裂;F4:海源断裂;F5:岐山—马召断裂;F6西秦岭断裂;F7:双泉—临猗断裂;F8:扶风—三原—蒲城断裂;F9:固关—宝鸡断裂;F10:桃园—龟川寺断裂

    Figure  1.  The topography and tectonics of the study area

    (a) Topography, major active faults and large earthquakes around the study area;(b) The DEM of the Longxian county. F1:Liupanshan fault;F2:Xiaoguanshan fault;F3: Tongwei fault;F4:Haiyuan fault;F5:Qishan-Mazhao fault;F6:West Qinling fault;F7: Shuangquan−Linyi fault;F8:Fufeng−Sanyuan−Pucheng fault;F9:Guguan−Baoji fault;F10:TaoYuan−Guichuansi fault

    图  2  滑坡滑动体示意图(修改自 Jibson et al, 2000

    Figure  2.  Sliding-block model used for the Newmark analysis (adapted from Jibson et al, 2000

    图  3  纽马克模型累积位移求解原理示意图(修改自Wilson和Keefer (1984))

    (a) 地震动加速度时程曲线ac = 0.2g; (b) 滑动速度时程曲线;(c) 滑块累积位移时程曲线

    Figure  3.  Illustration of Newmark double-integration (adapted from Wilson and Keefer (1983)

    (a) Earthquake acceleration time history with the critical acceleration (short-dashed line) of 0.2g superimposed; (b) The velocity of landslide block versus time (c) Displacement of landslide block versus time

    图  4  地震发生率曲线与超越概率曲线

    Figure  4.  Earthquake incidence curve and probability of exceedance curve

    图  5  研究区工程岩组分类图(引自Jibson等(2000))

    Figure  5.  The rock groups based on rock strength of the study area (After Jibson 等(2000)

    图  6  研究区地形坡度图

    Figure  6.  The slope angle of the study area

    图  8  研究区50年10%超越概率水平的地震动加速度

    (a) 未考虑地形放大效应的地震动PGA分布 ;(b) 考虑地形放大效应的地震动PGA分布

    Figure  8.  The peak ground motion under the 10% probability of incidence rate in 50 years of study areas

    (a) The uncorrected PGA;(b) The corrected PGA

    图  7  研究区地形放大系数 K分布图

    Figure  7.  The topographic amplification factor K of study areas

    图  9  工程岩组内聚力c′、内摩擦角φ′以及岩体的物质密度γ的蒙特-卡洛抽样结果

    Figure  9.  Examples of the Monte Carlo simulations of a effective cohesion of the rock c' (a) effective internal friction angle of the rock φ' (b),unit weight of the rock γ (c)

    图  10  静态安全系数Fs、临界加速度ac以及纽马克位移 Dn的蒙特-卡洛的抽样结果

    Figure  10.  Examples of the Monte Carlo simulations of static safety factor Fs (a),critical acceleration ac (b) and Newmark displacement Dn (c)

    图  11  研究区地震滑坡失稳概率图

    Figure  11.  Failure probability map of the study area

    表  1  斜坡地震动放大系数的经验取值

    Table  1.   The empirical parameters considering the topographic amplification effect

    突出地形的高度 H/m局部突出台地边缘的侧向平均坡降H/L
    非岩质地层岩质地层H/L<0.30.3≤H/L<0.60.6≤H/L<1.0H/L≥1.0
    H<5 H<20 0 0.1 0.2 0.3
    5≤H<15 20≤H<40 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
    15≤H<25 40≤H<60 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
    H≥25 H≥60 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
    注:H/L是坡度的正切值。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  纽马克模型岩石力学参数的Beta-PERT分布

    Table  2.   Statistical parameters of Newmark model with the Beta-PERT distribution

    工程岩组c'/kPaφ'/°γ /(kN·m−3
    最小值最可能值最小值最小值最可能值最小值最能值最小值最可能值
    30 40 60 25 40 60 23.5 27.5 32.5
    28 35 40 15 35 50 21.5 26.5 30.5
    20 28 32 12 20 30 19.5 24.5 28.5
    15 25 30 10 20 40 18.5 25.5 28.5
    8 10 15 8 10 18 15.5 21.5 25.5
    注:t=3 m; γw=9.807 kN/m3
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-09-08
  • 修回日期:  2021-11-19
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