夏垫断裂MW≥7.5地震动的预测

周红 王文静

周红,王文静. 2022. 夏垫断裂MW≥7.5地震动的预测. 地震学报,44(5):853−867 doi: 10.11939/jass.20220089
引用本文: 周红,王文静. 2022. 夏垫断裂MW≥7.5地震动的预测. 地震学报,44(5):853−867 doi: 10.11939/jass.20220089
Zhou H,Wang W J. 2022. Ground motion prediction of MW≥7.5 on Xiadian fault. Acta Seismologica Sinica,44(5):853−867 doi: 10.11939/jass.20220089
Citation: Zhou H,Wang W J. 2022. Ground motion prediction of MW≥7.5 on Xiadian fault. Acta Seismologica Sinica44(5):853−867 doi: 10.11939/jass.20220089

夏垫断裂MW≥7.5地震动的预测

doi: 10.11939/jass.20220089
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金面上项目(42174070)、北京市自然科学基金面上项目(8222035)和国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1500205)联合资助
详细信息
    通讯作者:

    周红,博士,研究员,主要从事强地面运动模拟、地震波传播激发理论的研究,e-mail:zhouhong@cea-igp.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号: P315.9

Ground motion prediction of MW≥7.5 on Xiadian fault

  • 摘要: 针对夏垫断裂开展了MW≥7.5地震动预测研究。首先基于全破裂模式设定震源(使其尽可能涵盖夏垫断裂的未知信息)模拟得到夏垫断裂发生MW≥7.5地震时研究区域内的地面地震动场,进而依据分位数筛选出各场点的地震动空间分布,讨论了包含不确定震源下的加速度峰值和速度峰值的分布特征,结果显示当夏垫断裂发生MW7.9地震时,通州城区、北京中心城区均会发生强烈的运动。之后对比讨论了仿真震源下MW7.5地震所引起的地面运动场的空间变化,结果显示对于同等震级而言,两种震源的模拟结果可以相互印证。

     

  • 图  1  MW7.8地震多破裂模式下50%,60%,70%和80%分位数的地震动峰值(PGA)分布

    Figure  1.  Distribution of 50%,60%,70% and 80% quantile PGAs at MW7.8 by multiple rupture patterns

    2  MW7.9地震多破裂模式下50%,60%,70%和80% 分位数的PGA分布

    2.  Distribution of 50%,60%,70% and 80% quantile PGAs at MW7.9 by multiple rupture patterns

    图  2  MW7.9地震多破裂模式下50%,60%,70%和80%分位数的PGA分布

    Figure  2.  Distribution of 50%,60%,70% and 80% quantile PGAs at MW7.9 by multiple rupture patterns

    图  3  断层走向为30°时50%,60%,70%和80%分位数下的地震动PGA分布

    Figure  3.  PGA distribution of ground motion at 50%,60%,70% and 80% quartile due to the fault with strike 30°

    图  4  断层走向为45°时50%,60%,70%和80%分位数下的地震动PGA分布

    Figure  4.  PGA distribution of ground motion at 50%,60% ,70% and 80% quartile due to the fault with strike 45°

    图  5  断层走向为55°时50%,60%,70%和80%分位数下的地震动PGA分布

    Figure  5.  PGA distribution of ground motion at 50%,60%,70%和80% quartile due to the fault with strike 55°

    图  6  三个走向的加速度合成后50%,60%,70%和80%分位数的下地震动PGA分布

    Figure  6.  Distribution of PGAs of the synthesis records at 50%,60%,70% and 80% quartiles for the faults with three strikes

    图  7  模拟MW7.5加速度峰值及其对应的不同周期T的反应谱分布

    Figure  7.  The distribution of simulated acceleration peaks and response spectra with different period T for MW7.5

    图  8  模拟MW7.5速度峰值及其对应的不同周期T的反应谱分布

    Figure  8.  Distribution of the simulated velocity peaks and response spectra with different period T for MW7.5

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2022-06-07
  • 修回日期:  2022-07-28
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-09-01
  • 刊出日期:  2022-09-15

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