周红,王文静. 2022. 夏垫断裂MW≥7.5地震动的预测. 地震学报,44(5):853−867. doi: 10.11939/jass.20220089
引用本文: 周红,王文静. 2022. 夏垫断裂MW≥7.5地震动的预测. 地震学报,44(5):853−867. doi: 10.11939/jass.20220089
Zhou H,Wang W J. 2022. Ground motion prediction of MW≥7.5 on Xiadian fault. Acta Seismologica Sinica44(5):853−867. doi: 10.11939/jass.20220089
Citation: Zhou H,Wang W J. 2022. Ground motion prediction of MW≥7.5 on Xiadian fault. Acta Seismologica Sinica44(5):853−867. doi: 10.11939/jass.20220089

夏垫断裂MW≥7.5地震动的预测

Ground motion prediction of MW≥7.5 on Xiadian fault

  • 摘要: 针对夏垫断裂开展了MW≥7.5地震动预测研究。首先基于全破裂模式设定震源(使其尽可能涵盖夏垫断裂的未知信息)模拟得到夏垫断裂发生MW≥7.5地震时研究区域内的地面地震动场,进而依据分位数筛选出各场点的地震动空间分布,讨论了包含不确定震源下的加速度峰值和速度峰值的分布特征,结果显示当夏垫断裂发生MW7.9地震时,通州城区、北京中心城区均会发生强烈的运动。之后对比讨论了仿真震源下MW7.5地震所引起的地面运动场的空间变化,结果显示对于同等震级而言,两种震源的模拟结果可以相互印证。

     

    Abstract: The prediction of ground motion fields for potential earthquakes is important for urban planning and regional seismic hazard assessment. In this paper, the prediction of MW≥7.5 ground motion is carried out for the Xiadian fault. Firstly, the earthquake source is set based on the full rupture patterns to cover the unknown information of the Xiadian fault as much as possible. Then the ground motion field in the study area is simulated due to the MW≥7.5 earthquake on the Xiadian fault. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of ground motion at each site is filtered based on the quantile method, and the distribution characteristics of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity for the inclusion of uncertain sources are discussed. The results show that an MW7.9 earthquake on the Xiadian fault will produce the strong ground motion in Tongzhou district and Beijing center zone. After that, the spatial distribution of the ground motion due to the MW7.5 earthquake from the simulated source is discussed. The results illustrate that the simulated ground motion from the two types of sources can corroborate each other for the same magnitude. Our study provides a method for the earthquake hazard predictions due to the potential sources with some unknowns.

     

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