于文强, 李厚朴, 刘敏, 宋立忠. 0: 基于混沌VMD-LSTM的地磁变化预测方法. 地震学报. doi: 10.11939/jass.20220132
引用本文: 于文强, 李厚朴, 刘敏, 宋立忠. 0: 基于混沌VMD-LSTM的地磁变化预测方法. 地震学报. doi: 10.11939/jass.20220132
WenQiang YU, HouPo LI, Min LIU, LiZhong . 0: A geomagnetic variation prediction method based on Chaotic VMD-LSTM neural network. Acta Seismologica Sinica. doi: 10.11939/jass.20220132
Citation: WenQiang YU, HouPo LI, Min LIU, LiZhong . 0: A geomagnetic variation prediction method based on Chaotic VMD-LSTM neural network. Acta Seismologica Sinica. doi: 10.11939/jass.20220132

基于混沌VMD-LSTM的地磁变化预测方法

A geomagnetic variation prediction method based on Chaotic VMD-LSTM neural network

  • 摘要: 针对地磁变化场的非平稳性、非线性,物理模型难以预测的特点,提出了一种应用改进的LSTM神经网络预测方法并进行实验验证,首先应用了变分模态分解VMD方法对地磁台站数据进行处理分析,再根据地磁变化的混沌特性引入了混沌理论对样本集进行优化,最终以LSTM网络作为预测器。将改进前后方法进行比对,结果表明,优化方法预测较稳定,平均MAE小于2nT,R2超过0.8,预测值与实测值拟合度较高,且在中国大陆泛用性较好。

     

    Abstract: In view of the nonstationarity and nonlinearity of geomagnetic variation field and the difficulty of physical model prediction, an improved LSTM neural network prediction method is proposed and verified by experiments. Firstly, the VMD method is used to process and analyze the geomagnetic station data, and then the chaos theory is introduced to optimize the sample set according to the chaotic characteristics of geomagnetic variation. Finally, the LSTM network is used as the predictor. The results show that the prediction of the optimized method has good robustness, the average MAE is less than 2nT, R2 is more than 0.8, the predicted value is in good agreement with the measured value, and it is widely used in Chinese Mainland.

     

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