Discussion on scientific and practical problems of feasibility of earthquake prediction
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摘要: 唐山地震40周年之际， 回顾我国地震预测预报探索的科学实践历程， 总结其进展， 讨论遇到的科学与实践问题， 展望未来， 这是最好的纪念． 实现地震预报的关键是短临预报， 震前是否有前兆, 是否可以观测到, 是否可应用于预测地震并取得减灾实效， 这都是地震预报探索需要阐明的问题， 即地震预报的可行性研究． 本文主要对地震前兆及其物理基础、 地震能否预测的争论以及观测的重要性等一些重要科学与实践问题进行讨论， 并在此基础上认识到， 地震是有前兆的， 且前兆很复杂， 在充分研究前兆的基础上地震预报是可能的； 此外， 地震预测预报探索需从可行性研究进入更高的探索阶段．Abstract: The best way for the memory of the 40th anniversary of the 1976 Tangshan MS7.8 earthquake is to review the scientific practice of earthquake prediction research in China, summarize its progress, and discuss scientific and practical problems that we have faced to and prospect for the future. The key to realize earthquake prediction is the short and imminent prediction. Whether there are earthquake precursors, whether such precursors can be observed, and whether the precursors can be used to predict earthquakes and reduce the disasters, which are the questions that the earthquake prediction research must answer. In other words, positive answers to such questions confirm the feasi-bility of earthquake predictions. This paper discusses key scientific and practical problems, such as the detection of earthquake precursors, the physical basis of earthquake precursors, the debate on whether earthquake can be predicted, and the importance of observations, and then comes to the conclusion that there are precursors to earthquake though they are very complex, and it is possible to predict earthquakes. Earthquake prediction research should be developed from phase of feasibility study into the phase of deep exploration.
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表 1 1966—2001年几次代表性大地震事件情况表
Table 1 The information of several representative strong earthquakes during 1966—2001
地震名称 现象及启示 主要来源 1966年3月8日、 22日河北邢台MS6.8、 MS7.2地震 调查到诸多震前异常现象，说明地震可能是有前兆的； 观测到强余震前小震闹、 大震到的规律，并有强余震成功预测实例 河北省地震局，1986； 曾炬等，1988 1969年7月18日渤海MS7.4地震 震前观测到时间长、 分布广、 幅度大的异常现象； 调查到许多宏观异常，如天津动物园的动物异常 季同仁等，1988 1970年1月5日云南通海MS7.7地震 再次证实震前有宏观异常现象； 显示活动断裂与地震的关系密切 陈立德，1988； 刘祖荫等，1999 1973年2月6日四川炉霍MS7.6地震 打破Ⅹ度区短期内大震不重复的概念； 观测到甘孜台地电阻率长达1年多的异常，姑咱台水氡突跳和康定台地倾斜打结等异常现象 程式，任昭明，1988 1974年5月11日四川大关MS7.1地震 发生两组断裂交叉的争论； 观测到地电阻率1年多的趋势下降 罗平，1988 1975年2月4日辽宁海城MS7.3地震 观测到较多前兆异常，特别是大量的前震和丰富的宏观异常； 有中期预报，临震预报成功，取得了减灾实效； 肯定了长、 中、 短、 临预报思想； 打破了区划图的烈度预测 朱凤鸣，吴戈，1982； 全蓥道，1988 1976年7月28日河北唐山MS7.8地震 一次无前震震例； 观测到大量前兆异常及长、 中、 短、 临全过程变化； 有中期预报，短临预报失败，灾害惨重； 揭示了地震前兆和预测预报工作的极大复杂性，有众多教训和启示 梅世蓉，1982； 张肇诚等，1990a 1976年8月16日四川松潘MS7.2地震 中短临异常丰富，宏观异常3个月内三起三落，向震中区迁移； 有较好的中、 短、 临跟踪预测，短临预报坚持3个月，是一次部分成功预报的地震； 提出了多源孕震及其前兆和社会学问题 四川省地震局，1979； 程式，任昭明，1990 1995年7月12日云南孟连西MS7.3地震 异常项目较多，长、 中、 短、 临阶段性明显，短期和临震阶段出现“巨变”异常； 是一次有长、 中、 短、 临成功预报，取得减灾实效的地震； 提出多震孕育和异常叠加问题 付虹等，2002 2001年11月14日青海昆仑山口西MS8.1地震 一次近场观测资料少、 有较多远场观测资料，不能预报，但有众多启示的地震； 震源区无资料； 异常分布近3000 km； 大地震的孕震范围问题再次被提出 中国地震局监测预报司，2002； 陈玉华等，2008 
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