川滇地震的时空对应特征

梁劳

摘要: 研究了记录较全的1920年以来的川滇 M6级地震资料,发现两区地震之间有较好的对应关系,其对应概率为78%.分析了时空对应特征后得到:两区对应地震的发震时序概率几近相等,平均发震时差大致相同,对应优势方向为北东向.统计结果表明,川滇对应地震的对应时差（）普遍较短,平均约为9个月.经 X2检验近似服从泊松分布.在讨论分区对应特点的基础上,给出了高概率对应区.当一区发生地震后,可对另一区地震的时间、地点和发震概率进行估计,为中期预报提供某些线索.文中还对对应机制的某些问题进行了讨论.

Abstract: In analysing the data of earthquakes of magnitude M 6 occurred in Yunnan and Sichuan provinces of southwestern China since 1920, it seems that a correlative relation exists in time and locality, with a probability of 78%. At the same time, the probability of the order of migration of earthquakes from Yunnan to Sichuan and from Sichuan to Yunnan is essentially equal, the intervals between origin times are about the same as well, the direction of migration of earthquakes is predominately northeast.Statistical results show that the interval (△) between events of Yunnan and Sichuan are generally short-about 9 months in average. X2 tests indicate that they obey the Poisson Distribution. The areas with higher correlative probability are given on the basis of discussions of their respective specific features. When an earthquake event occurs in an area, then the origin time, the location and the probability of the occurrence of an event in another area may roughly be estimated, thus providing a clue for medium-range earthquake prediction.Some problems concerning the mechanism of the correlative relation of earthquakes of Yunnan and Sichuan provinces have also been discussed in this paper,

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川滇地震的时空对应特征

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TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CORRELATION OF MAJOR EARTHQUAKES OCCURRED IN YUNNAN AND SICHUAN PROVINCES SINCE 1920

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川滇地震的时空对应特征

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出版历程

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CORRELATION OF MAJOR EARTHQUAKES OCCURRED IN YUNNAN AND SICHUAN PROVINCES SINCE 1920

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出版历程

目录