Long-term trending variation of georesistivity and its implication to earthquake prediction
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摘要: 为了深入研究地电阻率1年尺度以上趋势变化的区域性和同步性，本文从地电阻率与水位、水准的关系以及地电阻率固体潮现象的角度，通过理论、实验、实例分析了地电阻率趋势变化产生的原因.分析结果显示，地电阻率趋势变化与观测系统或水位(非构造水位)无关，而与周围构造变化有关，且趋势上升和下降分别反映了周围应力场的压性和张性变化.在此基础上，以高邮台和成都台为例，从地电阻率与周围地震的关系分析了地电阻率趋势变化的场兆特征，结果表明地电阻率在上升趋势转折时更具有短期的预测意义.本文结果可以为研究地电阻率的长期趋势变化现象提供参考; 未来地震的预测需在综合各台站观测结果的基础上才能有效地判定区域应力场的方向和相对幅度，从而给出有意义的地震前兆预测结果.Abstract: The trend variations in the earth-resistivity over one year scale are observed in large quantities. This trend variation is regional and synchronous. In order to study this phenomenon, this paper analyzes the reasons for the trend variation of resistivity from the view points of the relationship between water level and ground resistivity, and between ground level and resistivity, as well as the earth tide phenomenon of ground resistivity through the theory, experiment and example analysis. It is considered that the trend variation is independent of the observation system or the water level (non-tectonic water level), but relate to structural change. The rising and falling trend respectively reflect the compressional and extensional variation of stress field around. Furthermore, taking the stations Gaoyou and Chengdu as examples, the characteristics of the resistivity trend are analyzed based on the relationship between the surrounding earthquakes and the resistivity. The result shows that the uptrend turning has short-term predictive implication, which can provide a reference for the research on the long-term trend of resistivity. The future earthquake prediction needs to be integrated with the observation results of each station, which can effectively determine the direction and the relative amplitude of regional stress field, so as to give some significant results of earthquake precursor and prediction.
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Keywords:
- georesistivity /
- trend variation /
- stress field /
- earthquake prediction
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图 1 新沂、蒙城、郯城台EW向地电阻率月均值曲线
Figure 1. Monthly mean value curves of georesistivity in EW direction at the stations Xinyi (upper), Mengcheng (middle) and Tancheng (lower)
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图 2 昆山苏21井水位和海安台北NS和EW向地电阻率日均值曲线
Figure 2. Daily mean value curves of water level at the well Su21 (upper) and georesistivity of the station Hai'an in NS (middle) and EW (lower) directions
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图 3 剪切应力的线性加载下岩石电阻率变化(引自国家地震局科技监测司, 1995)
图中uτ为剪切位移, τ为剪切应力
Figure 3. Variation of rock resistivity under linear loading of shearing stress (after Department of Science and Technology Monitoring, State Seismological Bureau, 1975)
uτ is shearing displacement, and τ is shearing stress
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图 4 2005年5月南京台NS和EW向电阻率整点值曲线
Figure 4. The hourly-value curves of georesistivity recorded by NS and EW directions at the station Nanjing in May of 2005
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图 5 2005年5月6—12日南京台电阻率和固体潮应变整点值理论曲线
Figure 5. The hourly-value curves of georesistivity recorded by NS and EW directions as well as theoretical hourly-value curves of solid tide strain along NS and EW directions at the station Nanjing in May 6-12, 2006
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图 6 江苏新沂、南京、高邮等台站电阻率与竹矿跨断层水准观测的同步变化关系
Figure 6. Synchronous changes of the resistivity for the stations Xinyi, Nanjing and Gaoyou and across-fault water leveling observation of Zhukuang
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图 7 2012年高邮—宝应MS4.9地震和地电阻率观测场地分布
Figure 7. Epicentral location of Gaoyou-Baoying MS4.9 earthquake in 2012 and distribution of georesistivity observation stations
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图 8 高邮台2010—2013年地电阻率去年变周期曲线
Figure 8. Georesistivity variation curves after removing the annual variation in three directions at the station Gaoyou in 2010-2013
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图 9 2011—2012年江苏省南京、新沂、海安、江宁台NS和EW向地电阻率日均值曲线
Figure 9. Daily mean value curves of georesistivity at the stations Nanjing, Xinyi, Hai'an and Jiangning in NS and EW directions in 2011-2012
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图 10 成都台1976—2008年地电阻率NE向月均值曲线
Figure 10. Monthly mean value curve of georesistivity in NE direction at the station Chengdu during 1976—2008
表 1 海安台EW向供电电极接地电阻
Table 1 The ground resistance of the power supply electrods in EW direction at the station Hai'an
年份 2月接地电阻/Ω 5月接地电阻/Ω 8月接地电阻/Ω 11月接地电阻/Ω 2011 6.91 7.00 7.68 6.80 2012 7.15 6.81 7.62 7.78 2013 7.32 7.58 7.72 7.90 2014 6.91 7.02 7.16 6.73 2015 7.01 7.22 7.53 7.29 
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