Mechanism analysis of spatial distribution of the geophysical observation anomalies before the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake and the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake
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摘要:
对甘东南地区2013年岷县漳县MS6.6地震和2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震震前地球物理观测异常特征进行总结梳理。根据活动构造单元对地球物理观测台站进行区域划分，统计了相关构造单元上异常的数量和百分比，以及不同学科震前异常数量、百分比、异常持续时间等特征，并对异常的空间分布和机理进行分析，讨论了活动构造对异常分布的影响、异常强度与震源机制及断层应力之间的关系。结果表明：① 2013年岷县漳县MS6.6地震比2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震震前地球物理观测异常百分比高，两次地震的震前电磁异常和跨断层水准测量异常均较为显著，而流体异常不明显；② 震前地球物理观测异常分布与活动构造相关，2013年岷县漳县MS6.6地震震前异常主要集中在东昆仑—西秦岭断裂带和六盘山—海原断裂带，2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震震前异常则主要集中在龙门山断裂带和东昆仑—西秦岭断裂带；③ 两次地震震前地球物理观测异常分布均与GNSS速度场分布特征有较好的对应关系；④ 安德森断层应力模式解释了2013年岷县漳县MS6.6地震（逆冲型）比2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震（走滑型）的形成需要更多的应力积累，因此2013年岷县漳县MS6.6地震虽然震级较小但震前异常更显著。
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关键词:
- 2013年岷县漳县MS6.6地震 /
- 2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震 /
- 观测异常 /
- 地震预测
Abstract:The 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake and the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake are typical moderate-strong earthquakes developed in the southeast of Gansu Province in recent years. In order to further discuss the common characteristics of geophysical anomalies before earthquakes in this area, the two earthquakes are taken as the research objects in this paper. Based on the published data, it is concluded that there are obvious geophysical anomalies before the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake and the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake, including crustal deformation （fixed-station and cross-fault leveling）, electromagnetism and underground fluid. Among them, there are 49 precursory anomalies of the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake and 34 precursory anomalies of the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake. Meanwhile, the number of precursory anomalies in different disciplines are calculated and the regulations of precursory anomalies in different disciplines are summarized. Besides, the geophysical observation stations are divided according to active fault zones, and the number and percentage of precursory anomalies on relevant fault zones are counted to analyze the precursory anomalies controlled by active tectonics, which has been compared with GNSS velocity field. We also adopt Anderson fault stress model to discuss the different spatial distribution and intensity of precursory anomalies between these two earthquakes, as well as the focal mechanism effect on precursory anomalies in depth. According to the above, the following understandings are obtained:
1） Through the comparison of the two earthquakes, the precursory anomalies of cross-fault leveling and electro-magnetism of the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake are more obvious, with the respective anomaly percentages 35% and 28%, followed by fixed-station deformation and underground fluid anomalies, the anomaly percentages are 21% and 15%, respectively. While the electromagnetic anomalies of the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake are significant, with an anomaly percentage of 45%, followed by the cross-fault leveling and fixed-station deformation, with an anomaly percentage of 26%. While the underground fluid anomalies are the least, with an anomaly percentage of only 5%. Summarized from the above data, the geophysical anomalies before the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake are more significant than these of the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake. And precursory anomalies of the two earthquakes both reflect that the electromagnetic and cross-fault leveling anomalies are more obvious, while the underground fluid precursory anomalies are rare.
2） The distribution of geophysical anomalies before the earthquake is related to the active tectonics. Specifically, the precursory anomalies before the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake are mainly concentrated in the east Kunlun-west Qinling fault zone and the Liupanshan-Haiyuan fault zone, while the precursory anomalies before the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake are mainly concentrated in the Longmenshan fault zone and the east Kunlun-west Qinling fault zone. The east Kunlun-west Qinling fault zone, which is located in the boundary structure of the Bayan Har block, the Longxi block and the Qaidam basin, has significant precursory anomalies before these two earthquakes, indicating that as an active structure of the central orogenic belt, it plays an important role in the stress conduction of the present extension of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.
3） There is a good correspondence between the distribution of precursory anomalies before the two earthquakes and the GNSS velocity field. The GNSS velocity field is the direct manifestation of the current crustal movement and fault activity. The corresponding relationship between the GNSS velocity field and the precursory anomalies distribution further proves the difference in seismogenic tectonic setting between these two earthquakes, and helps to analyze the stress accumulation before the earthquakes, as well as the energy conduction in seismogenic process.
4） The stress mechanism of the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake and the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake are analyzed based on the Anderson fault stress model, which indicates that shear stress （corresponding to strike-slip fault） is more likely to form fault rupture than normal stress （corresponding to reverse fault）, and this viewpoint is supported by rock test laboratory results: an increase in shear stress at the fault plane along the direction of fault slip makes the fault more likely to rupture, while an increase in normal stress （pressure） at the vertical fault plane increases the friction strength of the fault and inhibits rupture. Therefore, although the magnitude of the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake （thrust type） is slightly smaller than the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake （strike-slip type）, it needs to accumulate more stress to rupture, showing a higher intensity of precursory anomalies.
This study summarizes the precursory anomalies regulation of two typical earthquakes in the southeast of Gansu Province, which attributes to accumulate earthquake cases data for the establishment of prediction practice in this area.
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图 1 2013年岷县漳县MS6.6地震和2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震构造背景及周邻地震分布
图中主要断层根据袁道阳等（2004）、徐锡伟等（2008）和郑文俊等（2013b）绘制，下同
Figure 1. Tectonic background and surrounding earthquake distribution of the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake and 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake
The fault data are from Yuan et al （2004），Xu et al （2008）and Zheng et al （2013b），the same below
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图 2 2013年岷县漳县MS6.6地震（a）和2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震（b）的地球物理观测异常分布与活动构造单元关系图
图内的蓝色区域为龙门山断裂带，橙色区域为东昆仑—西秦岭断裂带，绿色区域为六盘山—海原断裂带，紫色区域为渭河断陷带，黄色区域为鲜水河—安宁河断裂带，红色区域为发震构造及相邻断裂带。灰色站点震前无异常发生，彩色站点震前出现异常，不同颜色指示震前异常持续时间不同，下同
Figure 2. Relationship between distribution of geophysical precursory anomalies and active tectonics for the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake （a） and the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake （b）
The blue area is Longmenshan fault zone，the orange area is east Kunlun-west Qinling fault zone，the green area is Liupanshan-Haiyuan fault zone，and the purple area is Weihe fault depression zone，the yellow area is Xianshuihe fault zone，and the red area is the seismogenic structure and its adjacent fault zones. There is no anomaly in gray stations before the earthquake，and different station colors indicate different duration of anomalies before earthquakes, the same below
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图 3 2013年岷县漳县MS6.6地震（a）和2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震（b）震前地球物理观测异常分布和GNSS速度场
蓝色区域为GNSS速度场中由过渡区至北西偏转的分支，橙色区域为GNSS速度场中速度向南东偏转的分支，绿色区域为GNSS速度场中速度向北西偏转的分支，紫色区域为GNSS速度场过渡区
Figure 3. Relationship between distribution of geophysical precursory anomalies and GNSS velocity field for the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake （a） and the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake （b）
The blue area in the GNSS velocity field exhibits initial directionality ambiguity，subsequently deflecting NW，the orange area in the GNSS velocity field is characterized by a consistent velocity deflection towards the SE，the green area in the GNSS velocity field is characterized by a consistent velocity deflection towards the NW，and the purple area in the GNSS velocity field denotes an indeterminate transitional direction
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图 4 2013年岷县漳县MS6.6地震发震构造及安德森断层应力模式图
震源机制数据来源于GCMT （2013），台站图例与图2和图3相同。F1：东昆仑断裂；F2：迭部—白龙江断裂；F3：光盖山—迭山断裂；F4：临潭—宕昌断裂；F5：西秦岭断裂
Figure 4. Seismogenic structure and Anderson fault stress model of the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake
The focal mechanism data set is provided by GCMT （2013），the observation station legends are the same as Figs. 2 and 3. F1：east Kunlun fault；F2：Diebu-Bailongjiang fault；F3：Guanggaishan-Dieshan fault；F4：Lintan-Dangchang fault；F5：west Qinling fault
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图 5 2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震发震构造及安德森断层应力模式图
震源机制数据来源于GCMT （2017），台站图例与图2和3相同。F1：岷江断裂；F2：树正断裂；F3：塔藏断裂
Figure 5. Seismogenic structure and Anderson fault stress model of the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake
The focal mechanism data set is provided by GCMT （2017），the observation station legends are the same as Figs. 2 and 3. F1：Minjiang fault；F2：Shuzheng fault；F3：Tazang fault
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图 6 2013年岷县漳县MS6.6地震和2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震的摩尔—库仑圆对比
蓝色阴影区和绿色阴影区分别代表2013年岷县漳县MS6.6地震和2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震应力变化范围
Figure 6. Comparison of Mohr-Coulomb circles between the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake and the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake
The blue shaded area and green shaded area represent the stress change range of the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake and the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake，respectively
表 1 2013年岷县漳县MS6.6地震震前地球物理观测异常统计
Table 1 The summary of geophysical precursory anomalies before the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake
台站 震前异常
持续时间学科 异常描述 参考文献 兰州台 50—30 d 许康生和曾文浩（2 017） 合作台 50—31 d 宕昌台 50—32 d 同仁台 50—33 d 乾陵台 50—34 d 形变 钻孔应变中应变范数在背景变化的基础上
在地震前各台都有所增大小庙台 50—35 d 昭通台 50 d 永胜台 50—35 d 昆明台 50—35 d 兰州台 11 mo 形变 钻孔倾斜大幅异常 曾文浩等（2 016） 宕昌台 3 mo 形变 洞体应变2年破年变，临震3个月大幅变化 史继平等（2 015） 临夏台 30 mo 形变 钻孔应变主应力趋势转折 史小平等（2 020） 四店 3 d 形变 正断突跳，大幅跳变 王双绪等（2 013），杨晓东等（2 014），李瑞莎等（2 016） 麻界滩 7 mo 跨断层 正断突跳，大幅加速变化 毛羽沟 7 mo 跨断层 正断突跳，大幅加速变化 巴沙沟 10 mo 跨断层 大幅加速变化 王双绪等（2 013），李瑞莎等（2 016） 刘家店 7 mo 六盘山 36 mo 跨断层 较大幅度的异常变化 和尚铺 7 mo 奈子沟 22 mo 李瑞莎等（2 016） 口子门 10 mo 江口 26 mo 柳家沟 36 mo 毛集 36 mo 固关 15 mo 冯家山 15 mo 跨断层 趋势变化 安国 15 mo 海原 7 mo 黄家坝 22 mo 扁都口 26 mo 白土庄 18 mo 水泉 36 mo 窝子滩 18 mo 跨断层 趋势变化 王双绪等（2 013），李瑞莎等（2 016） 九条岭 10 mo 武山 19 mo 水氡浓度临界慢化现象 王熠熙等（2 018） 民和 29 mo 武山1号泉 16 mo 流体 水氡转折上升 张昱等（2 021），冯建刚等（2 022） 武山22泉 16 mo 水氡转折上升 通渭台 19 mo 水氡上升加速下降 武都 26 mo 水氡趋势下降 天水花牛台 3 mo 水氡高值 曹玲玲等（2 013），张昱等（2 021），
冯建刚等（2 022）清水李沟 15 mo 流体 流量、水温上升流量高值 张昱等（2 021），冯建刚等（2 022） 清水温泉 12 mo 水温低值，下降0.005 ℃ 平凉北山1号泉 9 mo 流体 水氡 破年变低值 张昱等（2 021），冯建刚等（2 022） 平凉北山2号泉 6 mo 水氡高值 兰州台 6 h 电磁 台站地磁Z分量 李军辉等（2 021） 天水台 4.8 h 电磁 台站地磁Z分量 通渭台 10 mo 视电阻率 视电阻率各向异性异常变化 解滔等（2 022） 寺滩台 50 d 电磁 台站地磁Z分量明显增强变化 李军辉等（2 021） 临夏台 7 mo 电磁 电阻率破年变 张昱等（2 021），冯建刚等（2 022） 天水台 3 mo 电磁 电阻率振荡波动 平凉 3 mo 松山 3 mo 电场 电场功率谱密度增大 范莹莹等（2 015） 古丰 3 mo 天水 44 d 地电阻率 地电阻率数据波动 陈雪梅等（2 013） 
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表 2 2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震震前地球物理观测异常统计
Table 2 The summary of geophysical precursory anomalies before the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake
台站 震前异常
持续时间学科 异常描述 参考文献 宁陕台 8 mo 形变 垂直摆NS加速N倾 中国地震台网中心（2 019） 泾源 5—9 mo 伸缩仪、垂直摆加速变化 两水 7 mo 形变 地应变加卸载响应比异常 岳冲等（2 020） 武都 2 mo 天水 2—4 mo 汉中台 12 mo 盘古川 1 mo 水准 超2倍均方差，尖点突跳异常 张小涛等（2 018），张希等（2 018），
中国地震台网中心（2 019）毛羽沟 3 mo 超2倍均方差，趋势加速、震后转折回返 毛集 17 mo 超2倍均方差，尖点突跳异常 四店 21 mo 超2倍均方差，突跳异常 硖口驿 24 mo 超2倍均方差，尖点突跳异常 武都东 9 mo 超2倍均方差，突降0.8 mm，2017年3个月异常继续，7 个月回返0.49 mm 黄家坝 17 mo 超2倍均方差，加速下降超限异常，大幅突跳异常 巴沙沟 36 mo 超2倍均方差，趋势转折 柳家沟 21 mo 超2倍均方差，持续逆断下降 红柳峡 9 mo 超2倍均方差，大幅异常变化 三关口 24 mo 水准 逆断下降，小幅回返 高曙德（2 020） 武都殿沟 19 mo 水氡 2015年1 个月快速上升变化 中国地震台网中心（2 019） 洋县 7 mo 水氡 快速下降 中国地震台网中心（2 019） 湟源 2 d 水氡 震前下降 罗宾生和陈永花（2 018） 松潘 6 mo 地磁 逐日比超阈值异常 芮雪莲等（2 019） 江油 成都 崇州 成都 13 mo 地磁 谐波振幅比2016年出现趋势转折异常 何畅等（2 017） 天水 5 mo 地电 地电阻率 3—6 个月高频扰动异常 中国地震台网中心（2 019） 汉中台 24 mo 地磁 谐波振幅 中国地震台网中心（2 019） 合作 4 d 地磁 地震前地磁垂直强度极化短期异常 廖晓峰等（2 021） 天水 2 d 舟曲 2 d 巴塘 3 d 大武 1 d 西宁 6 d 贵德 3 d 泾阳 4 d 平凉 7 mo 地电 趋势异常 高曙德等（2 017） 固原 13 mo 破年变
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表 3 2013年岷县漳县Ms6.6地震与2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震不同构造单元震前地球物理观测异常对比
Table 3 Comparison of geophysical precursory anomalies in different active fault zones before the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake and the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake
地震名称 相关断层 测项总数 异常测向数量 异常比例 误差 2 013年岷县漳县MS6.6地震 临潭—宕昌断裂 6 6 100% 7.1% 东昆仑—西秦岭断裂带 80 30 38% 3.9% 六盘山—海原断裂带 98 18 18% 1.9% 渭河断陷带 39 1 3% 0.3% 总数 223 55 25% 2.5% 2 017年九寨沟MS7.0地震 岷山断裂 3 1 33% 12.5% 龙门山断裂带 17 8 47% 5.6% 东昆仑—西秦岭断裂带 79 21 27% 2.7% 六盘山—海原断裂带 43 3 7% 0.7% 渭河断陷带 18 1 6% 0.6% 总数 160 34 21% 2.1%
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表 4 2013年岷县漳县MS6.6地震和2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震震前不同学科地球物理观测异常数量对比
Table 4 Comparison of the number of geophysical precursory anomalies in different disciplines before the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake and 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake
地震 电磁异常 流体异常 定点形变异常 跨断层水准异常 个数 百分比 个数 百分比 个数 百分比 个数 异常百分比 2 013年岷县漳县MS6.6地震 10 28% 11 15% 8 21% 26 35% 2 017年九寨沟MS7.0地震 15 45% 3 5% 7 26% 9 26%
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